National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021756
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Danielle, located about 900 miles west of the
Azores.

East of the Leeward Islands:
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over the eastern portion of the circulation.
Environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, but any
additional development of the system over the next few days would
lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is
expected to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent
waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains may occur over portions of the Leeward Islands
during the next couple of days, and interests in that area should
monitor the progress of the system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the system. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has diminished. Significant
development is not expected as this system moves generally
west-northwestward into an area of unfavorable environmental
conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Sep 2022 14:50:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Sep 2022 15:23:55 GMT

Issued at 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021449 TCDAT5 Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022 Danielle has continued to strengthen this morning. A ragged eye is evident in conventional satellite imagery, and deep convection surrounds much of the northern and western portions of the circulation. A recent ASCAT-B pass missed the center but caught the eastern portion of the circulation. It showed winds up to 52 kt on the inner edge of the swath and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 100 n mi in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. The latest objective and subjective satellite estimates support raising the initial intensity to 65 kt, which makes Danielle the first Atlantic hurricane of the season. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear generally favorable for some additional strengthening during the next couple of days. The hurricane will meander over 27C SSTs in an environment of light to moderate deep-layer shear. Danielle is a higher-latitude storm, and so there is the potential for some mid-level dry air entrainment that could briefly disrupt the cyclone's organization. The latest intensity guidance consensus still favors some additional strengthening through Sunday. The official NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and lies slightly above the model consensus. After 72 h, weakening is expected to commence as Danielle gains latitude and moves over cooler waters while it encounters more deep-layer shear within the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the 12-hr motion of Danielle has been an easterly drift, the hurricane appears to have become nearly stationary this morning. The cyclone will likely continue to meander over the central Atlantic during the next couple of days under the influence of a blocking high pressure ridge. This feature is forecast to weaken by early next week, which should allow Danielle to begin moving northeastward by 72 h and accelerate deeper into the mid-latitudes on days 4-5. Once again, it appears Danielle will not begin extratropical transition until beyond the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast generally lies near the center of the guidance envelope, close to the reliable consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 37.9N 43.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 38.0N 43.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 38.1N 43.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 38.9N 44.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 39.6N 43.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 41.0N 40.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 42.5N 36.4W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 636 FONT15 KNHC 021448 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DANIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 856 WTNT25 KNHC 021447 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.3W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..110NE 70SE 90SW 110NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 43.3W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 43.2W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 38.0N 43.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 38.1N 43.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 38.9N 44.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 39.6N 43.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 41.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 42.5N 36.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 43.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022 855 WTNT35 KNHC 021447 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022 ...DANIELLE BECOMES THE FIRST ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.9N 43.3W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 43.3 West. Danielle is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to meander over the open Atlantic during the next couple of days, then slowly turn toward the northeast early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...DANIELLE BECOMES THE FIRST ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... As of 3:00 PM GMT Fri Sep 2 the center of Danielle was located near 37.9, -43.3 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011741
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Danielle, located about 950 miles west of
the Azores.

East of the Leeward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands
have recently decreased in coverage. Although environmental
conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional
development of the system over the next few days would lead to the
formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to
move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the
northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite imagery and surface observations show that a broad area
of low pressure is located over and to the northwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. The associated shower activity has diminished
through the day. There is still some chance for the system to
become a short-lived tropical depression within the next day or so
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Danielle are issued
under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Danielle are issued
under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Sep 2022 14:46:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Sep 2022 15:24:10 GMT

Issued at 300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022 963 WTNT45 KNHC 011444 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022 A recent ASCAT pass revealed areas of tropical-storm-force winds and the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt making the system Tropical Storm Danielle. Visible satellite imagery also shows convective coverage expanding and obscuring the low-level circulation. The initial motion of the storm is eastward at 3 kt. The tropical storm is located in an area of light winds and weak steering under an omega block. This will likely cause the system to slowly drift around the same general area until the anticyclone weakens and a mid-latitude trough steers Danielle poleward around day 4. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory prediction and lies between the model consensus aids. Danielle is over an area of warmer than average ocean waters. Atmospheric conditions are also forecast to be relatively favorable, with light- to moderate-northerly to northwesterly shear for the next three days or so. The NHC forecast calls for additional strengthening and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two days and peak in intensity in about 4 days. When the storm moves northward, Danielle will likely weaken as it moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 38.1N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 38.2N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 38.2N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 38.0N 44.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 38.0N 44.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 40.0N 43.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 01 2022 000 FONT15 KNHC 011440 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022 1500 UTC THU SEP 01 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 01 2022 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011440 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052022 1500 UTC THU SEP 01 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 44.7W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 44.7W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 44.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.2N 44.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 38.2N 44.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 38.1N 44.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 38.0N 44.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.0N 44.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.5N 44.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 40.0N 43.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 42.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 44.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011440 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 44.7W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 44.7 West. Danielle is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). The tropical storm is expected to meander during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two days or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE... As of 3:00 PM GMT Thu Sep 1 the center of Danielle was located near 38.1, -44.7 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Data from a NOAA aircraft reconnaissance mission earlier today
showed little change in organization of the area of low pressure
located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive,
additional gradual development of this system is expected and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern
Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located just to the northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
have changed little since earlier today. Some gradual development is
possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical
depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next
couple of days. By late this week, environmental conditions are
forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development.
Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is showing signs of organization over the
central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles west-southwest of the
westernmost Azores. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression
is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system
drifts generally eastward. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions are
only marginally conducive, some gradual development of this system
is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week or this weekend. The disturbance is
forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5
to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward
Islands. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is
located off the west coast of Africa. Some gradual development is
possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical
depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days.
By late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become
increasingly unfavorable for further development. Regardless, the
system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive,
some gradual development of this system is expected over the next
several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west
and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters
of the northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this
system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda
continues to produce limited shower activity. Strong upper-level
winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of
this system while it drifts southward and southwestward over the
central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and likely
dissipate by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this evening or early Tuesday. Some gradual development of this
system is possible after that time while it moves generally
westward to west-northwestward across the far eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea later this week. Environmental conditions could
support some slow development of the system thereafter while it
moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a broad area of
low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is
producing winds to near gale force, but the circulation remains
elongated with an ill-defined center. Although environmental
conditions ahead of the system do not appear conducive for
significant development, a tropical depression, at the very least,
is likely to form later this week while moving slowly toward the
west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the waters east
and northeast of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda
is producing limited shower activity. Strong upper-level winds and
dry air are expected to limit significant development of this system
while it drifts southward over the central Atlantic during the next
couple of days, and the low is likely to dissipate by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of the system
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
Monday night. Some gradual development of the system is possible
after that time while it moves generally westward across the far
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

153
ABNT20 KNHC 271738
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be generally favorable for some gradual development of
this system over the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea during the early or middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the
system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
early next week. Some gradual development of the system is possible
during the middle of next week while it moves generally westward
across the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and complex area of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The interaction of this feature with an approaching tropical wave
could support some gradual development of the system during the
early and middle parts of next week while it moves slowly westward
to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions could become more conducive for slow development of this
system during the early or middle part of next week while it moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and
northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart