Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0384 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0384 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 7 14:51:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1174 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
Mesoscale Discussion 1174 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...northeast Arkansas...western Tennessee...and far northern Mississippi. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071233Z - 071400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A watch may eventually be needed across western Tennessee and vicinity. DISCUSSION...A well-developed squall line exists this morning from north-central Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma. Sporadic, mostly sub-severe, wind gusts have been evident along this line this morning. Ahead of this line, a cluster of storms has developed within a warm-air advection regime across Arkansas. A few stronger cells have developed within this cluster, but do not expect this activity to produce a greater/widespread severe weather threat. The greatest risk is associated with the squall line farther west, and whether it maintains intensity as it moves east. At least some heating appears likely this morning along the southern edge of the upper-level cirrus shield. Therefore, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed at some point to address this threat, but a watch is not anticipated for the preceding cells/cluster at this time. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 36439119 36429008 36458889 35928805 35418782 35018786 34668809 34318899 34289013 34329064 34439115 36439119 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms are expected across a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...AR across TN Valley... Latest radar loops show a persistent line of strong/severe thunderstorms over northwest AR and eastern OK. These storms are associated with a mid-level speed max emanating from KS, and have become well-organized overnight. It appears likely that these storms will maintain their linear organization through the afternoon and spread eastward across the TN Valley and central Gulf coast states, posing a risk of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Surrounding the ENH risk, strong CAPE and sufficient westerly flow aloft will lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development with some low threat of damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/north TX this afternoon... In the wake of the morning linear MCS, an outflow boundary is expected to stretch across southern OK and north TX. Cam guidance is not particularly bullish on re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this boundary, but sufficient winds aloft and ample CAPE will result in a conditional risk of hail and damaging wind in any storms that can form. ...West TX... Most CAM solutions show the development of widely scattered thunderstorms this evening. Current guidance suggests any storms that form will be sufficiently sparse that low severe probabilities will suffice. However, an upgrade to SLGT could be required if 12z guidance begins to indicate a greater confidence in storm coverage. ...MO... A cluster of afternoon thunderstorms is expected to form over northwest MO and track eastward across the state. These storms are expected to be near the axis on an approaching mid-level trough. Despite rather weak CAPE, winds aloft and lapse rates appear sufficiently favorable for some risk of a few strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms are expected across a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...AR across TN Valley... Latest radar loops show a persistent line of strong/severe thunderstorms over northwest AR and eastern OK. These storms are associated with a mid-level speed max emanating from KS, and have become well-organized overnight. It appears likely that these storms will maintain their linear organization through the afternoon and spread eastward across the TN Valley and central Gulf coast states, posing a risk of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Surrounding the ENH risk, strong CAPE and sufficient westerly flow aloft will lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development with some low threat of damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/north TX this afternoon... In the wake of the morning linear MCS, an outflow boundary is expected to stretch across southern OK and north TX. Cam guidance is not particularly bullish on re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this boundary, but sufficient winds aloft and ample CAPE will result in a conditional risk of hail and damaging wind in any storms that can form. ...West TX... Most CAM solutions show the development of widely scattered thunderstorms this evening. Current guidance suggests any storms that form will be sufficiently sparse that low severe probabilities will suffice. However, an upgrade to SLGT could be required if 12z guidance begins to indicate a greater confidence in storm coverage. ...MO... A cluster of afternoon thunderstorms is expected to form over northwest MO and track eastward across the state. These storms are expected to be near the axis on an approaching mid-level trough. Despite rather weak CAPE, winds aloft and lapse rates appear sufficiently favorable for some risk of a few strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms are expected across a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...AR across TN Valley... Latest radar loops show a persistent line of strong/severe thunderstorms over northwest AR and eastern OK. These storms are associated with a mid-level speed max emanating from KS, and have become well-organized overnight. It appears likely that these storms will maintain their linear organization through the afternoon and spread eastward across the TN Valley and central Gulf coast states, posing a risk of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Surrounding the ENH risk, strong CAPE and sufficient westerly flow aloft will lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development with some low threat of damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/north TX this afternoon... In the wake of the morning linear MCS, an outflow boundary is expected to stretch across southern OK and north TX. Cam guidance is not particularly bullish on re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this boundary, but sufficient winds aloft and ample CAPE will result in a conditional risk of hail and damaging wind in any storms that can form. ...West TX... Most CAM solutions show the development of widely scattered thunderstorms this evening. Current guidance suggests any storms that form will be sufficiently sparse that low severe probabilities will suffice. However, an upgrade to SLGT could be required if 12z guidance begins to indicate a greater confidence in storm coverage. ...MO... A cluster of afternoon thunderstorms is expected to form over northwest MO and track eastward across the state. These storms are expected to be near the axis on an approaching mid-level trough. Despite rather weak CAPE, winds aloft and lapse rates appear sufficiently favorable for some risk of a few strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms are expected across a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...AR across TN Valley... Latest radar loops show a persistent line of strong/severe thunderstorms over northwest AR and eastern OK. These storms are associated with a mid-level speed max emanating from KS, and have become well-organized overnight. It appears likely that these storms will maintain their linear organization through the afternoon and spread eastward across the TN Valley and central Gulf coast states, posing a risk of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Surrounding the ENH risk, strong CAPE and sufficient westerly flow aloft will lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development with some low threat of damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/north TX this afternoon... In the wake of the morning linear MCS, an outflow boundary is expected to stretch across southern OK and north TX. Cam guidance is not particularly bullish on re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this boundary, but sufficient winds aloft and ample CAPE will result in a conditional risk of hail and damaging wind in any storms that can form. ...West TX... Most CAM solutions show the development of widely scattered thunderstorms this evening. Current guidance suggests any storms that form will be sufficiently sparse that low severe probabilities will suffice. However, an upgrade to SLGT could be required if 12z guidance begins to indicate a greater confidence in storm coverage. ...MO... A cluster of afternoon thunderstorms is expected to form over northwest MO and track eastward across the state. These storms are expected to be near the axis on an approaching mid-level trough. Despite rather weak CAPE, winds aloft and lapse rates appear sufficiently favorable for some risk of a few strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms are expected across a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...AR across TN Valley... Latest radar loops show a persistent line of strong/severe thunderstorms over northwest AR and eastern OK. These storms are associated with a mid-level speed max emanating from KS, and have become well-organized overnight. It appears likely that these storms will maintain their linear organization through the afternoon and spread eastward across the TN Valley and central Gulf coast states, posing a risk of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Surrounding the ENH risk, strong CAPE and sufficient westerly flow aloft will lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development with some low threat of damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/north TX this afternoon... In the wake of the morning linear MCS, an outflow boundary is expected to stretch across southern OK and north TX. Cam guidance is not particularly bullish on re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this boundary, but sufficient winds aloft and ample CAPE will result in a conditional risk of hail and damaging wind in any storms that can form. ...West TX... Most CAM solutions show the development of widely scattered thunderstorms this evening. Current guidance suggests any storms that form will be sufficiently sparse that low severe probabilities will suffice. However, an upgrade to SLGT could be required if 12z guidance begins to indicate a greater confidence in storm coverage. ...MO... A cluster of afternoon thunderstorms is expected to form over northwest MO and track eastward across the state. These storms are expected to be near the axis on an approaching mid-level trough. Despite rather weak CAPE, winds aloft and lapse rates appear sufficiently favorable for some risk of a few strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms are expected across a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...AR across TN Valley... Latest radar loops show a persistent line of strong/severe thunderstorms over northwest AR and eastern OK. These storms are associated with a mid-level speed max emanating from KS, and have become well-organized overnight. It appears likely that these storms will maintain their linear organization through the afternoon and spread eastward across the TN Valley and central Gulf coast states, posing a risk of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Surrounding the ENH risk, strong CAPE and sufficient westerly flow aloft will lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development with some low threat of damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/north TX this afternoon... In the wake of the morning linear MCS, an outflow boundary is expected to stretch across southern OK and north TX. Cam guidance is not particularly bullish on re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this boundary, but sufficient winds aloft and ample CAPE will result in a conditional risk of hail and damaging wind in any storms that can form. ...West TX... Most CAM solutions show the development of widely scattered thunderstorms this evening. Current guidance suggests any storms that form will be sufficiently sparse that low severe probabilities will suffice. However, an upgrade to SLGT could be required if 12z guidance begins to indicate a greater confidence in storm coverage. ...MO... A cluster of afternoon thunderstorms is expected to form over northwest MO and track eastward across the state. These storms are expected to be near the axis on an approaching mid-level trough. Despite rather weak CAPE, winds aloft and lapse rates appear sufficiently favorable for some risk of a few strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms are expected across a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...AR across TN Valley... Latest radar loops show a persistent line of strong/severe thunderstorms over northwest AR and eastern OK. These storms are associated with a mid-level speed max emanating from KS, and have become well-organized overnight. It appears likely that these storms will maintain their linear organization through the afternoon and spread eastward across the TN Valley and central Gulf coast states, posing a risk of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Surrounding the ENH risk, strong CAPE and sufficient westerly flow aloft will lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development with some low threat of damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/north TX this afternoon... In the wake of the morning linear MCS, an outflow boundary is expected to stretch across southern OK and north TX. Cam guidance is not particularly bullish on re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this boundary, but sufficient winds aloft and ample CAPE will result in a conditional risk of hail and damaging wind in any storms that can form. ...West TX... Most CAM solutions show the development of widely scattered thunderstorms this evening. Current guidance suggests any storms that form will be sufficiently sparse that low severe probabilities will suffice. However, an upgrade to SLGT could be required if 12z guidance begins to indicate a greater confidence in storm coverage. ...MO... A cluster of afternoon thunderstorms is expected to form over northwest MO and track eastward across the state. These storms are expected to be near the axis on an approaching mid-level trough. Despite rather weak CAPE, winds aloft and lapse rates appear sufficiently favorable for some risk of a few strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms are expected across a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...AR across TN Valley... Latest radar loops show a persistent line of strong/severe thunderstorms over northwest AR and eastern OK. These storms are associated with a mid-level speed max emanating from KS, and have become well-organized overnight. It appears likely that these storms will maintain their linear organization through the afternoon and spread eastward across the TN Valley and central Gulf coast states, posing a risk of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Surrounding the ENH risk, strong CAPE and sufficient westerly flow aloft will lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development with some low threat of damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/north TX this afternoon... In the wake of the morning linear MCS, an outflow boundary is expected to stretch across southern OK and north TX. Cam guidance is not particularly bullish on re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this boundary, but sufficient winds aloft and ample CAPE will result in a conditional risk of hail and damaging wind in any storms that can form. ...West TX... Most CAM solutions show the development of widely scattered thunderstorms this evening. Current guidance suggests any storms that form will be sufficiently sparse that low severe probabilities will suffice. However, an upgrade to SLGT could be required if 12z guidance begins to indicate a greater confidence in storm coverage. ...MO... A cluster of afternoon thunderstorms is expected to form over northwest MO and track eastward across the state. These storms are expected to be near the axis on an approaching mid-level trough. Despite rather weak CAPE, winds aloft and lapse rates appear sufficiently favorable for some risk of a few strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms are expected across a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...AR across TN Valley... Latest radar loops show a persistent line of strong/severe thunderstorms over northwest AR and eastern OK. These storms are associated with a mid-level speed max emanating from KS, and have become well-organized overnight. It appears likely that these storms will maintain their linear organization through the afternoon and spread eastward across the TN Valley and central Gulf coast states, posing a risk of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Surrounding the ENH risk, strong CAPE and sufficient westerly flow aloft will lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development with some low threat of damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/north TX this afternoon... In the wake of the morning linear MCS, an outflow boundary is expected to stretch across southern OK and north TX. Cam guidance is not particularly bullish on re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this boundary, but sufficient winds aloft and ample CAPE will result in a conditional risk of hail and damaging wind in any storms that can form. ...West TX... Most CAM solutions show the development of widely scattered thunderstorms this evening. Current guidance suggests any storms that form will be sufficiently sparse that low severe probabilities will suffice. However, an upgrade to SLGT could be required if 12z guidance begins to indicate a greater confidence in storm coverage. ...MO... A cluster of afternoon thunderstorms is expected to form over northwest MO and track eastward across the state. These storms are expected to be near the axis on an approaching mid-level trough. Despite rather weak CAPE, winds aloft and lapse rates appear sufficiently favorable for some risk of a few strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms are expected across a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...AR across TN Valley... Latest radar loops show a persistent line of strong/severe thunderstorms over northwest AR and eastern OK. These storms are associated with a mid-level speed max emanating from KS, and have become well-organized overnight. It appears likely that these storms will maintain their linear organization through the afternoon and spread eastward across the TN Valley and central Gulf coast states, posing a risk of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Surrounding the ENH risk, strong CAPE and sufficient westerly flow aloft will lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development with some low threat of damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/north TX this afternoon... In the wake of the morning linear MCS, an outflow boundary is expected to stretch across southern OK and north TX. Cam guidance is not particularly bullish on re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this boundary, but sufficient winds aloft and ample CAPE will result in a conditional risk of hail and damaging wind in any storms that can form. ...West TX... Most CAM solutions show the development of widely scattered thunderstorms this evening. Current guidance suggests any storms that form will be sufficiently sparse that low severe probabilities will suffice. However, an upgrade to SLGT could be required if 12z guidance begins to indicate a greater confidence in storm coverage. ...MO... A cluster of afternoon thunderstorms is expected to form over northwest MO and track eastward across the state. These storms are expected to be near the axis on an approaching mid-level trough. Despite rather weak CAPE, winds aloft and lapse rates appear sufficiently favorable for some risk of a few strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms are expected across a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...AR across TN Valley... Latest radar loops show a persistent line of strong/severe thunderstorms over northwest AR and eastern OK. These storms are associated with a mid-level speed max emanating from KS, and have become well-organized overnight. It appears likely that these storms will maintain their linear organization through the afternoon and spread eastward across the TN Valley and central Gulf coast states, posing a risk of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Surrounding the ENH risk, strong CAPE and sufficient westerly flow aloft will lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development with some low threat of damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/north TX this afternoon... In the wake of the morning linear MCS, an outflow boundary is expected to stretch across southern OK and north TX. Cam guidance is not particularly bullish on re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this boundary, but sufficient winds aloft and ample CAPE will result in a conditional risk of hail and damaging wind in any storms that can form. ...West TX... Most CAM solutions show the development of widely scattered thunderstorms this evening. Current guidance suggests any storms that form will be sufficiently sparse that low severe probabilities will suffice. However, an upgrade to SLGT could be required if 12z guidance begins to indicate a greater confidence in storm coverage. ...MO... A cluster of afternoon thunderstorms is expected to form over northwest MO and track eastward across the state. These storms are expected to be near the axis on an approaching mid-level trough. Despite rather weak CAPE, winds aloft and lapse rates appear sufficiently favorable for some risk of a few strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2025 Read more