Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The current forecast for elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern Montana and far northwest North Dakota is on track, with no changes needed. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations indicate gusty post-frontal surface winds ongoing across much of the area, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours this afternoon as minimum RH values fall to 20-25% amidst at least marginally receptive fuels and continued breeziness. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 06/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The current forecast for elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern Montana and far northwest North Dakota is on track, with no changes needed. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations indicate gusty post-frontal surface winds ongoing across much of the area, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours this afternoon as minimum RH values fall to 20-25% amidst at least marginally receptive fuels and continued breeziness. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 06/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The current forecast for elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern Montana and far northwest North Dakota is on track, with no changes needed. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations indicate gusty post-frontal surface winds ongoing across much of the area, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours this afternoon as minimum RH values fall to 20-25% amidst at least marginally receptive fuels and continued breeziness. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 06/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The current forecast for elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern Montana and far northwest North Dakota is on track, with no changes needed. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations indicate gusty post-frontal surface winds ongoing across much of the area, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours this afternoon as minimum RH values fall to 20-25% amidst at least marginally receptive fuels and continued breeziness. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 06/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The current forecast for elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern Montana and far northwest North Dakota is on track, with no changes needed. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations indicate gusty post-frontal surface winds ongoing across much of the area, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours this afternoon as minimum RH values fall to 20-25% amidst at least marginally receptive fuels and continued breeziness. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 06/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0385 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0385 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... An organized/bowing line of storms will move across northern Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia through this evening with the potential for corridors of wind damage. Other areas of severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning's storms from Mississippi westward to north Texas, and across parts of west Texas and the southern High Plains. ...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight... Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South. Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent TN across AL to GA. Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term details. Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this evening/early tonight while moving into SC. In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL. The specific corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow progression with today's MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be possible later this afternoon into tonight. ...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening... Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM. There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into the northwest TX Panhandle this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. ...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening... The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a strong cap. Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low. If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts for a few hours this evening. This area will be re-evaluated for a possible upgrade at 20z. ...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of the midlevel vorticity center. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches. However, fairly widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best characterized as marginal. ...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening... A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK. Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected along the front this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and some hail may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 06/07/2025 Read more