Severe Storms

WW 386 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC TN 071900Z - 080100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 386 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and north Georgia Far western North Carolina Far western South Carolina Southeast Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An organized line of storms now in Alabama and southern middle Tennessee will move quickly eastward through this evening with a continued threat for corridors of damaging winds up to 75 mph, isolated large hail near 1 inch diameter, and possibly an isolated tornado or two with embedded circulations. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northwest of Knoxville TN to 40 miles south of Atlanta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 385... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S CBM TO 45 SSE MSL TO 35 WSW BNA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176 ..WEINMAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-043-049-055-057-071-073- 079-083-089-095-103-107-111-115-117-121-123-125-127-133- 071940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARSHALL MORGAN PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON TNC003-015-031-041-051-055-061-103-117-119-127-149-175-177-185- 187-071940- TN Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S CBM TO 45 SSE MSL TO 35 WSW BNA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176 ..WEINMAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-043-049-055-057-071-073- 079-083-089-095-103-107-111-115-117-121-123-125-127-133- 071940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARSHALL MORGAN PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON TNC003-015-031-041-051-055-061-103-117-119-127-149-175-177-185- 187-071940- TN Read more

WW 385 SEVERE TSTM AL TN 071650Z - 072300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and northern Alabama Southern Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1150 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An organized, bowing line of storms is expected to intensify this afternoon while moving eastward into northern/central Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee. Corridors of damaging winds up to 75 mph will be the main threat, though isolated large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest embedded storms. An isolated tornado or two may also occur with embedded circulations in the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Huntsville AL to 25 miles southwest of Birmingham AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 383...WW 384... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest widespread breezy post-frontal northwesterly surface winds across the northern High Plains tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday), with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. Ensemble guidance has also trended a bit drier in the low-levels, with minimum RH values now forecast between 20-25% across portions of central into northeastern Montana. Several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely tomorrow afternoon where fuels are at least marginally receptive. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may extend further southeastward, fuels generally remain less receptive due to recent rainfall over the past week. ..Elliott.. 06/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, promoting widespread showers/thunderstorms and/or the overspreading of rich low-level moisture across much of the Plains to the East Coast tomorrow (Sunday). As such, significant and widespread wildfire-spread conditions should be limited across most locales east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest tomorrow, though surface winds appear too weak to warrant fire weather highlights. Widespread 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25 percent RH are likely in a post cold-frontal regime over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon. However, fuels in this region are less receptive, and have received relatively more recent rainfall compared to far northeast Montana. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest widespread breezy post-frontal northwesterly surface winds across the northern High Plains tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday), with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. Ensemble guidance has also trended a bit drier in the low-levels, with minimum RH values now forecast between 20-25% across portions of central into northeastern Montana. Several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely tomorrow afternoon where fuels are at least marginally receptive. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may extend further southeastward, fuels generally remain less receptive due to recent rainfall over the past week. ..Elliott.. 06/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, promoting widespread showers/thunderstorms and/or the overspreading of rich low-level moisture across much of the Plains to the East Coast tomorrow (Sunday). As such, significant and widespread wildfire-spread conditions should be limited across most locales east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest tomorrow, though surface winds appear too weak to warrant fire weather highlights. Widespread 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25 percent RH are likely in a post cold-frontal regime over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon. However, fuels in this region are less receptive, and have received relatively more recent rainfall compared to far northeast Montana. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest widespread breezy post-frontal northwesterly surface winds across the northern High Plains tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday), with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. Ensemble guidance has also trended a bit drier in the low-levels, with minimum RH values now forecast between 20-25% across portions of central into northeastern Montana. Several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely tomorrow afternoon where fuels are at least marginally receptive. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may extend further southeastward, fuels generally remain less receptive due to recent rainfall over the past week. ..Elliott.. 06/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, promoting widespread showers/thunderstorms and/or the overspreading of rich low-level moisture across much of the Plains to the East Coast tomorrow (Sunday). As such, significant and widespread wildfire-spread conditions should be limited across most locales east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest tomorrow, though surface winds appear too weak to warrant fire weather highlights. Widespread 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25 percent RH are likely in a post cold-frontal regime over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon. However, fuels in this region are less receptive, and have received relatively more recent rainfall compared to far northeast Montana. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest widespread breezy post-frontal northwesterly surface winds across the northern High Plains tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday), with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. Ensemble guidance has also trended a bit drier in the low-levels, with minimum RH values now forecast between 20-25% across portions of central into northeastern Montana. Several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely tomorrow afternoon where fuels are at least marginally receptive. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may extend further southeastward, fuels generally remain less receptive due to recent rainfall over the past week. ..Elliott.. 06/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, promoting widespread showers/thunderstorms and/or the overspreading of rich low-level moisture across much of the Plains to the East Coast tomorrow (Sunday). As such, significant and widespread wildfire-spread conditions should be limited across most locales east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest tomorrow, though surface winds appear too weak to warrant fire weather highlights. Widespread 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25 percent RH are likely in a post cold-frontal regime over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon. However, fuels in this region are less receptive, and have received relatively more recent rainfall compared to far northeast Montana. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest widespread breezy post-frontal northwesterly surface winds across the northern High Plains tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday), with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. Ensemble guidance has also trended a bit drier in the low-levels, with minimum RH values now forecast between 20-25% across portions of central into northeastern Montana. Several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely tomorrow afternoon where fuels are at least marginally receptive. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may extend further southeastward, fuels generally remain less receptive due to recent rainfall over the past week. ..Elliott.. 06/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, promoting widespread showers/thunderstorms and/or the overspreading of rich low-level moisture across much of the Plains to the East Coast tomorrow (Sunday). As such, significant and widespread wildfire-spread conditions should be limited across most locales east of the Rockies. Similar to Day 1, dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest tomorrow, though surface winds appear too weak to warrant fire weather highlights. Widespread 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25 percent RH are likely in a post cold-frontal regime over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon. However, fuels in this region are less receptive, and have received relatively more recent rainfall compared to far northeast Montana. As such, fire weather highlights have been withheld for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1175 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL
Mesoscale Discussion 1175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...Parts of Middle TN and northern/central AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071604Z - 071830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts will spread/develop eastward into Middle TN and northern/central AL by 18-20Z. A watch is likely before 17Z for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...As of 16Z, a gradually organizing MCS is tracking eastward across the Mid-South -- ahead of a progressive midlevel shortwave trough moving into the the Middle MS Valley. In tandem with the midlevel shortwave trough, this activity will continue spreading/developing eastward into the afternoon, generally approaching Middle TN and northern/central AL by 18-20Z. While less certain, isolated thunderstorm development is also possible ahead of the organizing MCS over parts of northwest AL -- where agitated boundary-layer cumulus is evident within weakly confluent low-level flow. Continued diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist pre-convective air mass (lower/middle 70s dewpoints) will yield strong surface-based instability (strongest over northern/central AL) this afternoon. This unstable inflow, coupled with upwards of 40 kt of line-orthogonal deep-layer shear (strongest over Middle TN), should support the maintenance and/or intensification of the approaching MCS, along with any isolated warm-sector storms that may evolve. Despite veered surface winds over the warm/moist sector, steep pre-convective boundary-layer lapse rates and a well-established cold pool will favor scattered damaging wind gusts through the afternoon, with isolated severe hail also possible. Embedded mesovortex structures may evolve along any north/south-oriented portions of the line, posing a risk of locally stronger gusts (up to 75 mph) and perhaps a brief tornado or two. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the area before 17Z. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33508829 34858809 35938795 36218765 36368717 36418667 36328606 36038572 35708557 34948559 33418565 33018587 32858646 32918766 33178812 33508829 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front, daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE (3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds (80-100 mph) will be possible. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Thornton.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front, daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE (3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds (80-100 mph) will be possible. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Thornton.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front, daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE (3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds (80-100 mph) will be possible. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Thornton.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front, daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE (3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds (80-100 mph) will be possible. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Thornton.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front, daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE (3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds (80-100 mph) will be possible. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Thornton.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front, daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE (3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds (80-100 mph) will be possible. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Thornton.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front, daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE (3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds (80-100 mph) will be possible. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Thornton.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front, daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE (3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds (80-100 mph) will be possible. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Thornton.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front, daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE (3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds (80-100 mph) will be possible. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Thornton.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... CORRECTED FOR LINE ERROR ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected along the front in Kansas and Oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. South of the front, daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme CAPE (3000-5000 MLCAPE) across southwestern OK into northern TX. Initial development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. A couple of tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting cells occur. Through time, mode is likely to become more multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow to an MCS. As this moves along the gradient southeast across southwestern OK into northern TX, potential for significant winds (80-100 mph) will be possible. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to a relatively confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont should support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Thornton.. 06/07/2025 Read more