Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Sub-15 percent severe potential remains apparent over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States on D4/Tuesday before a cold front moves offshore. Instability progs remain weak where at least moderate deep-layer shear is anticipated. It seems plausible that the northern extent of larger buoyancy will be suppressed south in the wake of extensive convection through D3 across the Southeast. On D5-6/Wednesday-Thursday, guidance has trended towards some amplification of a minor southern-stream shortwave impulse as it drifts across the southern Great Plains. This could foster mesoscale corridors of modest shear overlapping plentiful buoyancy in the south-central states. Western Gulf moisture will spread north and encompass much of the central states through next weekend. Various shortwave impulses over the Northwest may support multiple bouts of mesoscale-driven severe potential along the northern periphery of the expansive Great Plains buoyancy plume. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Sub-15 percent severe potential remains apparent over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States on D4/Tuesday before a cold front moves offshore. Instability progs remain weak where at least moderate deep-layer shear is anticipated. It seems plausible that the northern extent of larger buoyancy will be suppressed south in the wake of extensive convection through D3 across the Southeast. On D5-6/Wednesday-Thursday, guidance has trended towards some amplification of a minor southern-stream shortwave impulse as it drifts across the southern Great Plains. This could foster mesoscale corridors of modest shear overlapping plentiful buoyancy in the south-central states. Western Gulf moisture will spread north and encompass much of the central states through next weekend. Various shortwave impulses over the Northwest may support multiple bouts of mesoscale-driven severe potential along the northern periphery of the expansive Great Plains buoyancy plume. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Sub-15 percent severe potential remains apparent over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States on D4/Tuesday before a cold front moves offshore. Instability progs remain weak where at least moderate deep-layer shear is anticipated. It seems plausible that the northern extent of larger buoyancy will be suppressed south in the wake of extensive convection through D3 across the Southeast. On D5-6/Wednesday-Thursday, guidance has trended towards some amplification of a minor southern-stream shortwave impulse as it drifts across the southern Great Plains. This could foster mesoscale corridors of modest shear overlapping plentiful buoyancy in the south-central states. Western Gulf moisture will spread north and encompass much of the central states through next weekend. Various shortwave impulses over the Northwest may support multiple bouts of mesoscale-driven severe potential along the northern periphery of the expansive Great Plains buoyancy plume. Read more

WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AMA TO 30 NNE BGD TO 30 ESE GUY TO 65 SE LBL TO 65 NNW CSM TO 50 SSW AVK TO 35 S AVK TO 10 SW END TO 20 E END TO 10 E PNC. ..BENTLEY..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-011-015-017-027-031-039-043-047-049-051-055-071-073-075- 081-083-087-103-109-119-123-125-129-133-149-070940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GREER KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS SEMINOLE WASHITA TXC179-211-295-357-393-483-070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRAY HEMPHILL LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS WHEELER Read more

MD 1170 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1170 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...portions of West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 070653Z - 070830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The large hail threat will persist for a few more hours early this morning across parts of West Texas. DISCUSSION...Supercells have persisted for several hours across parts of West Texas, near the nose of a 35 to 40 knot low level jet (as sampled by the KLBB VWP). As long as this low-level jet is maintained across the region, expect some supercell threat to persist given the moderate instability and strong shear in place. These supercells are clearly elevated with a primary threat of large hail and perhaps a few severe wind gusts. No watch is anticipated given the relatively confined areal threat. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB... LAT...LON 34260293 34270197 34220065 33780031 33550038 33490064 33640162 33750232 33920289 34180295 34260293 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0382 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 382 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW END TO 25 SW PNC TO 20 ENE PNC TO 35 W CNU. ..BENTLEY..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 382 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-070940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON KSC019-021-099-125-070940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE LABETTE MONTGOMERY MOC119-070940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCDONALD Read more

MD 1169 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 380...382... FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1169 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...the eastern Texas Panhandle and much of Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 380...382... Valid 070627Z - 070800Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 380, 382 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts continues this morning. Some tornado threat also exists. DISCUSSION...Storms across central Oklahoma have mostly weakened over the past hour with focus primarily shifting to the strengthening squall line across northwest Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle. Storms within this line have remained somewhat supercellular thus far, likely due to the strong shear present across the region. A more linear segment exists across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas which emanated from collapsing supercells earlier. Even within this linear segment, a focused zone of significant wind threat persists near a collapsing supercell within this line. Expect a similar threat farther southwest along this line where a few strong supercells are present. In fact, reflectivity from the KAMA WSR-88D suggest a similar transformation may be ongoing across Roberts and Hemphill counties. This region will be monitored for a potential secondary zone of a significant wind swath. Strong low-level shear and strong instability ahead of this line of storms will support some tornado threat through the overnight period. Especially where orientation within the line becomes more normal to the low-level shear vector. ..Bentley.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 36989883 37009767 36989685 36889608 36409563 35479557 34669580 34539621 34659739 34719842 34829978 35170067 35500142 35810157 36150155 36989883 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic damaging-wind threat. ...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities remain appropriate for this time frame. ...Southern High Plains to TX... A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic damaging-wind threat. ...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities remain appropriate for this time frame. ...Southern High Plains to TX... A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic damaging-wind threat. ...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities remain appropriate for this time frame. ...Southern High Plains to TX... A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic damaging-wind threat. ...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities remain appropriate for this time frame. ...Southern High Plains to TX... A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic damaging-wind threat. ...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities remain appropriate for this time frame. ...Southern High Plains to TX... A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic damaging-wind threat. ...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities remain appropriate for this time frame. ...Southern High Plains to TX... A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic damaging-wind threat. ...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities remain appropriate for this time frame. ...Southern High Plains to TX... A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic damaging-wind threat. ...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities remain appropriate for this time frame. ...Southern High Plains to TX... A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic damaging-wind threat. ...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities remain appropriate for this time frame. ...Southern High Plains to TX... A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic damaging-wind threat. ...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities remain appropriate for this time frame. ...Southern High Plains to TX... A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic damaging-wind threat. ...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities remain appropriate for this time frame. ...Southern High Plains to TX... A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic damaging-wind threat. ...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities remain appropriate for this time frame. ...Southern High Plains to TX... A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic damaging-wind threat. ...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities remain appropriate for this time frame. ...Southern High Plains to TX... A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more