Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will overspread the north-central to eastern CONUS today, supporting the northward return of low-level moisture, as well as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As such, wildfire spread concerns should be limited for much of the central and eastern CONUS. While overall dry conditions will prevail across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin, overall fuel receptiveness and strength of the surface wind fields appear too marginal for fire weather highlights. One area for some wildfire-spread potential is northeast Montana. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, with widespread 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds likely during the afternoon. Since RH may dip to 20 percent with the aforementioned strong surface wind field, and given ERCs approaching the 80th percentile in spots, Elevated highlights have been introduced for far northeastern Montana. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1167 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 381... FOR OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...OK/TX Panhandles into western/central OK Concerning...Tornado Watch 381... Valid 070441Z - 070615Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 381 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells with a hail and tornado threat may continue into the overnight, with an increase in severe-wind potential possible with time. DISCUSSION...Intense supercells continue to move southeastward across the OK/TX Panhandles, with one long-lived cell currently moving into west-central OK. Other strong to locally severe storms are approaching central OK. Nocturnal cooling and increasingly prominent outflow are increasing MLCINH across the region, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will continue to support supercells with potential for tornadoes and large to very large hail into the early overnight hours. The influence of outflow moving northward across western/central OK remains somewhat uncertain overnight, but in general, a strengthening low-level jet may support some clustering and upscale growth of convection overnight, generally near/north of a surface boundary draped from the northern TX Panhandle into northern OK. Should this occur, the severe-wind threat may increase with time, along with a continued threat of some hail and localized tornado potential with any persistent supercell structures. ..Dean.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 36970091 36949943 36599724 35509647 34859669 34709804 34739978 35280164 35570193 36000215 36520240 36830238 36970091 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0382 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0382 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more