Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more