Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025 Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW TAD TO 15 SW LHX TO 40 WSW ITR TO 30 ESE AKO. ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-061-063-071-089-099-070240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-097-101- 109-119-129-135-145-151-171-175-185-187-189-199-203-070240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE PRATT SCOTT SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-097-101- 109-119-129-135-145-151-171-175-185-187-189-199-203-070240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE PRATT SCOTT SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-097-101- 109-119-129-135-145-151-171-175-185-187-189-199-203-070240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE PRATT SCOTT SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025 Read more

MD 1161 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 378...379... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS/NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO/western KS/northeast NM into the TX/OK Panhandles Concerning...Tornado Watch 378...379... Valid 062345Z - 070115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 378, 379 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells with a tornado and very large hail threat will continue this evening, with some increase in severe-wind potential possible with time. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from southeast/east-central CO into the OK Panhandle, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. MRMS data suggest the southern most cells may be producing very large hail, and a threat for baseball-size (or larger hail) will likely continue as these cells move southeastward this evening. A weak surface boundary extends from southwest OK westward into the TX Panhandle, and then northwestward toward the Raton Mesa vicinity. Backed surface winds and richer low-level moisture near/north of this boundary could support locally greater tornado potential with the ongoing supercells in this area and any additional development this evening. Farther north, a cluster of supercells over east-central CO is approaching northwest KS. This cluster may continue southeastward this evening with some potential for all severe hazards. Some organized severe potential will likely spread into parts of western KS with time, where downstream watch issuance will likely be needed. ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37960447 39280303 39460242 39480196 39300150 38780107 37900077 37120044 36390007 36230007 36020004 35800008 35480062 35350110 35340243 35580304 36300397 36870411 37510440 37960447 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 1160 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 379... FOR PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the TX South Plains Concerning...Tornado Watch 379... Valid 062318Z - 070045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues. SUMMARY...Intense supercells remain possible into this evening. The tornado threat may increase with time, along with a continued significant hail/wind risk. DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is ongoing at 23 UTC just east of Lubbock, with a history of producing very large hail. This supercell developed near an outflow boundary, and additional storms are ongoing farther west along the boundary near the TX/NM border. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for intense supercells near the boundary, with a threat of very large hail and isolated but potentially significant severe gusts. While the boundary layer remains rather warm, increasing moisture with eastward extent and a tendency for strengthening low-level shear/SRH with time will support increasing tornado potential, especially with supercells near/north of the outflow boundary, where surface winds are backed and richer low-level moisture is in place. ..Dean.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 34330307 34330177 34280049 33700019 32840018 32870240 32970288 33240297 33560297 34330307 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 1159 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 376... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern Kentucky into western and middle Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 376... Valid 062255Z - 070030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 376 continues. SUMMARY...A couple instances of damaging gusts or hail may accompany the stronger storms across the remainder of Tornado Watch 376 and surrounding areas. A downstream WW issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...An overall downward trend in storm intensity has been noted across portions of the TN Valley, including with storms that are moving across Tornado Watch 376. NLDN lightning data suggests that the frequency of lightning has begun decreasing, with echoes around 30 kft dropping below 40 dBZ over several locales. Furthermore, the preceding warm sector downstream of ongoing storms has experienced some degree of modification, which will also contribute to weakening trends. In the more immediate future (next hour or so), some of the stronger storms, especially those in western toward middle TN, have some warm-sector buoyancy left to ingest to support a couple instances of isolated, marginally severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35048888 35698819 36568731 37408672 37558625 37288592 36968589 36518605 35888661 35418708 35118744 35018829 35048888 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0380 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0379 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 379 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 379 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-015-021-025-037-041-059-070140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY EDDY HARDING LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-070140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC003-011-017-033-045-065-069-079-107-111-115-117-125-129-153- 165-169-179-189-191-195-205-219-227-233-263-279-303-305-317-335- 341-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-415-421-437-445-501-070140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0379 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 379 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 379 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-015-021-025-037-041-059-070140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY EDDY HARDING LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-070140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC003-011-017-033-045-065-069-079-107-111-115-117-125-129-153- 165-169-179-189-191-195-205-219-227-233-263-279-303-305-317-335- 341-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-415-421-437-445-501-070140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more