Severe Storms

MD 1157 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1157 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and northern Alabama into northern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062152Z - 062315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the afternoon. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Several strong pulse-cellular and multicellular storms have matured over the past few hours given strong heating of a moist boundary layer. 7-8 C/km boundary-layer lapse rates atop 70+ F surface dewpoints are contributing to 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While the warm sector is overspread by only 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, these conditions should support continued organization of multicells with wet downburst potential. The severe threat, however, should be isolated, precluding a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB... LAT...LON 32218754 32548812 32868817 33638776 34348720 34818599 34888516 34778470 34358458 34008464 33388488 33098514 32678568 32258628 32128687 32218754 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1155 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 378... FOR SOUTHEAST CO...NORTHEAST NM...OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...FAR SOUTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1155 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Southeast CO...northeast NM...OK/northern TX Panhandle...far southwest KS Concerning...Tornado Watch 378... Valid 062130Z - 062300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 378 continues. SUMMARY...The supercell threat will increase into this evening, with a threat of very large hail, localized severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes. DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed across far southeast CO late this afternoon, with additional storm development noted across the Raton Mesa into northeast NM. Moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection into this evening, and development of additional supercells is possible. In the short term, relatively long and straight hodographs will favor very large hail potential as supercells become established, along with some threat for localized severe gusts. Increasing moisture/instability with southeastward extent, and an eventual increase in low-level flow/shear this evening, will also support a tornado threat. In order to address these threats, watch issuance is likely into parts of northeast NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, and possibly far southwest KS. ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37090434 37420259 37340145 36760060 36210059 35840108 35690200 35670277 35720361 35880417 36030453 36280461 37090434 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 1156 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA TO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1156 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern West Virginia to southeast Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062131Z - 062300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will persist across southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon. Strong wind gusts are the main threat, though an instance of large hail could occur. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular storm clusters have developed in a nebulously forced regime, and have been driven primarily by strong surface heating/mixing of the boundary layer, as well as orographic lift. Given robust boundary layer mixing, 7-8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates are boosting MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg in spots. With up to 35 kts of effective bulk shear in place, the aforementioned buoyancy is promoting occasionally organized, strong storms with a history of damaging gusts. Strong wind gust potential should continue through the remainder of the afternoon, until nocturnal cooling dampens the steep low-level lapse rates in place. Given organized multicellular modes, an instance or two of hail also cannot be ruled out. However, the overall severe threat should remain isolated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 36757946 38217929 39037907 39517864 39367792 38667720 37947721 37337735 36817768 36647858 36757946 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1154 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW YORK TO NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 1154 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeast New York to northern Connecticut...central Massachusetts...and southern New Hampshire Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062119Z - 062315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong storms should continue into early evening, with damaging gusts and large hail the main threats. DISCUSSION...Strong storms are underway across portions of New England, where strong wind gusts and large hail have been reported over the past several hours. Though deep-layer shear is relatively weak across New England, ample buoyancy resides ahead of ongoing storms, where low 80s F surface temperatures are contributing to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, strong wind gusts and hail may continue with both pulse cellular and multicellular storms, though the severe threat should remain isolated given weak shear. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 41457429 42877280 43517205 43567133 43257079 42827093 42287160 41877239 41497317 41357381 41457429 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 378 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155 ..DEAN..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC005-009-011-017-025-035-039-041-043-055-061-063-071-073-089- 099-101-119-121-062340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO TELLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 378 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155 ..DEAN..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC005-009-011-017-025-035-039-041-043-055-061-063-071-073-089- 099-101-119-121-062340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO TELLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0379 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 379 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 379 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-015-021-025-037-041-059-062340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY EDDY HARDING LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-062340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC003-011-017-033-045-065-069-079-107-111-115-117-125-129-153- 165-169-179-189-191-195-205-219-227-233-263-279-303-305-317-335- 341-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-415-421-437-445-501-062340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS ARMSTRONG BAILEY Read more

WW 0379 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 379 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 379 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-015-021-025-037-041-059-062340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY EDDY HARDING LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-062340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC003-011-017-033-045-065-069-079-107-111-115-117-125-129-153- 165-169-179-189-191-195-205-219-227-233-263-279-303-305-317-335- 341-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-415-421-437-445-501-062340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS ARMSTRONG BAILEY Read more

WW 378 TORNADO CO 061945Z - 070300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of East-Central and Southeast Colorado * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered are forecast to develop this afternoon near Interstate 25 and intensify as this activity moves east into the plains. A few supercells are likely with the more intense supercells potentially capable of very large hail up to 3.5 inches in diameter. The risk for a couple of tornadoes appears greatest during the late afternoon into the early evening when low-level shear will strengthen. The threat for severe gusts will probably become more prevalent this evening as storms increase in coverage. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Limon CO to 40 miles west southwest of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 376...WW 377... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Smith Read more

WW 379 TORNADO NM OK TX 062155Z - 070400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico The Oklahoma Panhandle West/Northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Multiple intense supercells will likely pose a threat for very large to potentially giant hail this afternoon and evening as they move generally east-southeastward. The largest hailstones may reach up to 3-4 inches in diameter. A few tornadoes will also be possible with any sustained supercells, mainly this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Scattered severe/damaging winds with peak gusts up to 60-75 mph may become an increasing concern later this evening if thunderstorms can congeal into one or more bowing clusters. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Guymon OK to 50 miles southeast of Hobbs NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 376...WW 378... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE MKL TO 35 SW CKV TO 25 E OWB. ..SQUITIERI..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC031-061-085-141-183-213-219-227-062340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER EDMONSON GRAYSON LOGAN OHIO SIMPSON TODD WARREN TNC021-043-081-083-085-125-147-062340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEATHAM DICKSON HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE MKL TO 35 SW CKV TO 25 E OWB. ..SQUITIERI..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC031-061-085-141-183-213-219-227-062340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER EDMONSON GRAYSON LOGAN OHIO SIMPSON TODD WARREN TNC021-043-081-083-085-125-147-062340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEATHAM DICKSON HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 376 TORNADO IL KY MO TN 061810Z - 070100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Western into Central Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northwest into Middle Tennessee * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon as the low-level wind profile strengthens across the Watch area. A couple of supercell tornadoes are possible, in addition to damaging gusts with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Cape Girardeau MO to 15 miles south southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1153 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and portions of Southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 062054Z - 062300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes likely this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows deepening cu across the dryline and high terrain of eastern New Mexico. Dew points in this region are in the upper 50s to 60s with MLCIN slowly eroding across far southeastern New Mexico where temperatures are in the 90s. Trends would suggest convective initiation may be delayed from timing in most CAM guidance but should occur over the next couple of hours. Strong deep layer shear around 50-55 kts will promote supercells initially capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind. Through time this evening, storms will be moving into a very unstable and strongly sheared air mass across southwestern Texas. As the low-level jet strengthens, an increase in hodograph curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH will likely lead to an increase in tornado potential. A watch will likely be needed this afternoon/evening to cover this threat. ..Thornton/Smith.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32130427 32570441 33030450 33660444 34610433 34810404 34890375 34850301 34720265 34140227 33550187 33030180 32060210 31780252 31770331 31970407 32130427 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more