Severe Storms

MD 1159 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 376... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern Kentucky into western and middle Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 376... Valid 062255Z - 070030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 376 continues. SUMMARY...A couple instances of damaging gusts or hail may accompany the stronger storms across the remainder of Tornado Watch 376 and surrounding areas. A downstream WW issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...An overall downward trend in storm intensity has been noted across portions of the TN Valley, including with storms that are moving across Tornado Watch 376. NLDN lightning data suggests that the frequency of lightning has begun decreasing, with echoes around 30 kft dropping below 40 dBZ over several locales. Furthermore, the preceding warm sector downstream of ongoing storms has experienced some degree of modification, which will also contribute to weakening trends. In the more immediate future (next hour or so), some of the stronger storms, especially those in western toward middle TN, have some warm-sector buoyancy left to ingest to support a couple instances of isolated, marginally severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35048888 35698819 36568731 37408672 37558625 37288592 36968589 36518605 35888661 35418708 35118744 35018829 35048888 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0380 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0379 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 379 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 379 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-015-021-025-037-041-059-070140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY EDDY HARDING LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-070140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC003-011-017-033-045-065-069-079-107-111-115-117-125-129-153- 165-169-179-189-191-195-205-219-227-233-263-279-303-305-317-335- 341-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-415-421-437-445-501-070140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0379 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 379 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 379 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-015-021-025-037-041-059-070140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY EDDY HARDING LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-070140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC003-011-017-033-045-065-069-079-107-111-115-117-125-129-153- 165-169-179-189-191-195-205-219-227-233-263-279-303-305-317-335- 341-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-415-421-437-445-501-070140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0379 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 379 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 379 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-015-021-025-037-041-059-070140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY EDDY HARDING LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-070140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC003-011-017-033-045-065-069-079-107-111-115-117-125-129-153- 165-169-179-189-191-195-205-219-227-233-263-279-303-305-317-335- 341-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-415-421-437-445-501-070140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0379 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 379 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 379 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-015-021-025-037-041-059-070140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY EDDY HARDING LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-070140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC003-011-017-033-045-065-069-079-107-111-115-117-125-129-153- 165-169-179-189-191-195-205-219-227-233-263-279-303-305-317-335- 341-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-415-421-437-445-501-070140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0379 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 379 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 379 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-015-021-025-037-041-059-070140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY EDDY HARDING LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-070140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC003-011-017-033-045-065-069-079-107-111-115-117-125-129-153- 165-169-179-189-191-195-205-219-227-233-263-279-303-305-317-335- 341-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-415-421-437-445-501-070140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0379 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 379 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 379 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-015-021-025-037-041-059-070140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY EDDY HARDING LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-070140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC003-011-017-033-045-065-069-079-107-111-115-117-125-129-153- 165-169-179-189-191-195-205-219-227-233-263-279-303-305-317-335- 341-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-415-421-437-445-501-070140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 379 TORNADO NM OK TX 062155Z - 070400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico The Oklahoma Panhandle West/Northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Multiple intense supercells will likely pose a threat for very large to potentially giant hail this afternoon and evening as they move generally east-southeastward. The largest hailstones may reach up to 3-4 inches in diameter. A few tornadoes will also be possible with any sustained supercells, mainly this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Scattered severe/damaging winds with peak gusts up to 60-75 mph may become an increasing concern later this evening if thunderstorms can congeal into one or more bowing clusters. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Guymon OK to 50 miles southeast of Hobbs NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 376...WW 378... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 378 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1161 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC005-009-011-017-025-035-039-041-043-055-061-063-071-073-089- 099-101-119-121-070140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO TELLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE MKL TO 35 SW CKV TO 25 E OWB. ..SQUITIERI..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC031-061-085-141-183-213-219-227-062340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER EDMONSON GRAYSON LOGAN OHIO SIMPSON TODD WARREN TNC021-043-081-083-085-125-147-062340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEATHAM DICKSON HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE MKL TO 35 SW CKV TO 25 E OWB. ..SQUITIERI..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC031-061-085-141-183-213-219-227-062340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER EDMONSON GRAYSON LOGAN OHIO SIMPSON TODD WARREN TNC021-043-081-083-085-125-147-062340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEATHAM DICKSON HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE MKL TO 35 SW CKV TO 25 E OWB. ..SQUITIERI..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC031-061-085-141-183-213-219-227-062340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER EDMONSON GRAYSON LOGAN OHIO SIMPSON TODD WARREN TNC021-043-081-083-085-125-147-062340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEATHAM DICKSON HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE MKL TO 35 SW CKV TO 25 E OWB. ..SQUITIERI..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC031-061-085-141-183-213-219-227-062340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER EDMONSON GRAYSON LOGAN OHIO SIMPSON TODD WARREN TNC021-043-081-083-085-125-147-062340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEATHAM DICKSON HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE MKL TO 35 SW CKV TO 25 E OWB. ..SQUITIERI..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC031-061-085-141-183-213-219-227-062340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER EDMONSON GRAYSON LOGAN OHIO SIMPSON TODD WARREN TNC021-043-081-083-085-125-147-062340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEATHAM DICKSON HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 376 TORNADO IL KY MO TN 061810Z - 070100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Western into Central Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northwest into Middle Tennessee * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon as the low-level wind profile strengthens across the Watch area. A couple of supercell tornadoes are possible, in addition to damaging gusts with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Cape Girardeau MO to 15 miles south southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1161 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 378...379... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS/NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO/western KS/northeast NM into the TX/OK Panhandles Concerning...Tornado Watch 378...379... Valid 062345Z - 070115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 378, 379 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells with a tornado and very large hail threat will continue this evening, with some increase in severe-wind potential possible with time. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from southeast/east-central CO into the OK Panhandle, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. MRMS data suggest the southern most cells may be producing very large hail, and a threat for baseball-size (or larger hail) will likely continue as these cells move southeastward this evening. A weak surface boundary extends from southwest OK westward into the TX Panhandle, and then northwestward toward the Raton Mesa vicinity. Backed surface winds and richer low-level moisture near/north of this boundary could support locally greater tornado potential with the ongoing supercells in this area and any additional development this evening. Farther north, a cluster of supercells over east-central CO is approaching northwest KS. This cluster may continue southeastward this evening with some potential for all severe hazards. Some organized severe potential will likely spread into parts of western KS with time, where downstream watch issuance will likely be needed. ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37960447 39280303 39460242 39480196 39300150 38780107 37900077 37120044 36390007 36230007 36020004 35800008 35480062 35350110 35340243 35580304 36300397 36870411 37510440 37960447 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 1160 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 379... FOR PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the TX South Plains Concerning...Tornado Watch 379... Valid 062318Z - 070045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues. SUMMARY...Intense supercells remain possible into this evening. The tornado threat may increase with time, along with a continued significant hail/wind risk. DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is ongoing at 23 UTC just east of Lubbock, with a history of producing very large hail. This supercell developed near an outflow boundary, and additional storms are ongoing farther west along the boundary near the TX/NM border. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for intense supercells near the boundary, with a threat of very large hail and isolated but potentially significant severe gusts. While the boundary layer remains rather warm, increasing moisture with eastward extent and a tendency for strengthening low-level shear/SRH with time will support increasing tornado potential, especially with supercells near/north of the outflow boundary, where surface winds are backed and richer low-level moisture is in place. ..Dean.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 34330307 34330177 34280049 33700019 32840018 32870240 32970288 33240297 33560297 34330307 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 1159 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 376... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern Kentucky into western and middle Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 376... Valid 062255Z - 070030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 376 continues. SUMMARY...A couple instances of damaging gusts or hail may accompany the stronger storms across the remainder of Tornado Watch 376 and surrounding areas. A downstream WW issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...An overall downward trend in storm intensity has been noted across portions of the TN Valley, including with storms that are moving across Tornado Watch 376. NLDN lightning data suggests that the frequency of lightning has begun decreasing, with echoes around 30 kft dropping below 40 dBZ over several locales. Furthermore, the preceding warm sector downstream of ongoing storms has experienced some degree of modification, which will also contribute to weakening trends. In the more immediate future (next hour or so), some of the stronger storms, especially those in western toward middle TN, have some warm-sector buoyancy left to ingest to support a couple instances of isolated, marginally severe wind and/or hail. ..Squitieri.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35048888 35698819 36568731 37408672 37558625 37288592 36968589 36518605 35888661 35418708 35118744 35018829 35048888 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1158 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX PERMIAN BASIN/TRANS-PECOS REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...TX Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 062218Z - 062345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development is possible into early evening, with a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. DISCUSSION...Cumulus is deepening across parts of the TX Trans-Pecos region late this afternoon, with recent storm development west of Fort Stockton. While large-scale ascent is nebulous, additional storm development will be possible within a very warm/moist and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer flow is somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, but 30-40 kt of effective shear and moderate to strong buoyancy could support isolated supercell development into this evening. Large to very large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany any established supercell into this evening. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, especially if any supercells are able to persist and move eastward into higher-quality low-level moisture. Watch issuance is possible if trends support increasing coverage of an organized severe threat into the early evening. ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31950446 31970366 31990265 31980219 31870196 31540193 30690221 29910281 29910347 30060391 30130421 30530465 31370472 31790478 31950446 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more