Severe Storms

MD 1153 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and portions of Southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 062054Z - 062300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes likely this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows deepening cu across the dryline and high terrain of eastern New Mexico. Dew points in this region are in the upper 50s to 60s with MLCIN slowly eroding across far southeastern New Mexico where temperatures are in the 90s. Trends would suggest convective initiation may be delayed from timing in most CAM guidance but should occur over the next couple of hours. Strong deep layer shear around 50-55 kts will promote supercells initially capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind. Through time this evening, storms will be moving into a very unstable and strongly sheared air mass across southwestern Texas. As the low-level jet strengthens, an increase in hodograph curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH will likely lead to an increase in tornado potential. A watch will likely be needed this afternoon/evening to cover this threat. ..Thornton/Smith.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32130427 32570441 33030450 33660444 34610433 34810404 34890375 34850301 34720265 34140227 33550187 33030180 32060210 31780252 31770331 31970407 32130427 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire-weather potential over much of the CONUS is low through the extend forecast period. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will begin to transition to a more amplified state late this weekend and into early next week. Subtropical ridging over the western US will intensify forcing northwesterly flow aloft over much of the Plains. To the east, a broad upper trough will deepen over the eastern US as it moves out of Canada. With northwesterly flow aloft and troughing over the east, broad southerly flow and moist surface conditions will support widespread thunderstorms across much of the Plains, Midwest and eastern US. Cool and wet conditions should temper fire-weather concerns. Western troughing should redevelop late in the extended forecast period potentially allowing dry and windy conditions to emerge over the western US. ...Northern Plains/Rockies... As the northern stream trough begins to deepen and move south out of Canada, strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Rockies and Plains late this weekend and into early next week. A cold front moving down the Plains will usher in a drier air mass across parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas D3/Sunday. While model guidance varies, consensus shows a few hours of dry and breezy conditions with post-frontal downslope flow across the northern High Plains. While area fuels are not overly dry, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Great Basin and Southwest... The upper ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward starting the middle of next week. This will allow some western US troughing to deepen and overspread the drier portions of the Great Basin and Southwest into next weekend. While details remain unclear due to model variance, increasing flow aloft, coupled with several preceding days of dry and warm conditions, may support increasing potential for fire-weather conditions. Warm temperatures beneath the upper ridge, coupled with modest ascent and mid-level moisture from several weak subtropical vorticity maxima forecast to move over the Southwest could support isolated dry thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. While again details are unclear, the potential for drying fuels and lightning could increase over parts of the Southwest toward the end of the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more