Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Great Lakes on Monday with a persistent ridge across the western CONUS and a closed low off the California coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Midwest into the Great Lakes... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the western Great Lakes/Midwest Monday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the 70s. Mid-level lapse rates will not be that steep, but instability and forcing should be sufficient to support some strong updrafts. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow across the warm sector will lead to modest shear which could result in multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. 00Z CAM guidance suggest the potential for storms ahead of and along the front with some post-frontal storms also possible across Wisconsin beneath the colder air aloft. This cooler air aloft may result in isolated large hail from the post-frontal storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Great Lakes on Monday with a persistent ridge across the western CONUS and a closed low off the California coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Midwest into the Great Lakes... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the western Great Lakes/Midwest Monday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the 70s. Mid-level lapse rates will not be that steep, but instability and forcing should be sufficient to support some strong updrafts. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow across the warm sector will lead to modest shear which could result in multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. 00Z CAM guidance suggest the potential for storms ahead of and along the front with some post-frontal storms also possible across Wisconsin beneath the colder air aloft. This cooler air aloft may result in isolated large hail from the post-frontal storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Great Lakes on Monday with a persistent ridge across the western CONUS and a closed low off the California coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Midwest into the Great Lakes... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the western Great Lakes/Midwest Monday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the 70s. Mid-level lapse rates will not be that steep, but instability and forcing should be sufficient to support some strong updrafts. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow across the warm sector will lead to modest shear which could result in multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. 00Z CAM guidance suggest the potential for storms ahead of and along the front with some post-frontal storms also possible across Wisconsin beneath the colder air aloft. This cooler air aloft may result in isolated large hail from the post-frontal storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Great Lakes on Monday with a persistent ridge across the western CONUS and a closed low off the California coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Midwest into the Great Lakes... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the western Great Lakes/Midwest Monday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the 70s. Mid-level lapse rates will not be that steep, but instability and forcing should be sufficient to support some strong updrafts. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow across the warm sector will lead to modest shear which could result in multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. 00Z CAM guidance suggest the potential for storms ahead of and along the front with some post-frontal storms also possible across Wisconsin beneath the colder air aloft. This cooler air aloft may result in isolated large hail from the post-frontal storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Great Lakes on Monday with a persistent ridge across the western CONUS and a closed low off the California coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Midwest into the Great Lakes... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the western Great Lakes/Midwest Monday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the 70s. Mid-level lapse rates will not be that steep, but instability and forcing should be sufficient to support some strong updrafts. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow across the warm sector will lead to modest shear which could result in multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. 00Z CAM guidance suggest the potential for storms ahead of and along the front with some post-frontal storms also possible across Wisconsin beneath the colder air aloft. This cooler air aloft may result in isolated large hail from the post-frontal storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Broadly cyclonic westerlies, currently noted over the northern Plains, will gradually shift east and sag south across the upper MS Valley late in the period. Mid-level flow south of I-70 will remain seasonally weak, and the prospect for organized convection south of this corridor is low. Early this morning, a weak synoptic front stretched from northwestern MN into northern NE before arcing into eastern WY. This boundary is forecast to sag south and east through the period with a late-afternoon position expected from northern WI-central IA-northwest KS-arcing into southeast WY. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development and the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains into extreme southeast NE. Convective temperatures will be easily breached along the boundary over northern KS as temperatures soar through the upper 90s to near 100F. Forecast soundings exhibit cloud bases near 3km in this environment and fairly high PWs favor damaging winds despite the relative weak shear across this region. Farther northeast, remnants of early-day convection will spread across southern MN/northwest IA. This activity will propagate southeast and likely influence redevelopment where differential heating is greatest. Some short-range guidance suggests an MCS may propagate south along the NE/IA border, with some upscale growth possible by early evening. While not all models agree, this signal is likely real, especially as a weak LLJ is forecast across eastern KS into northwest MO into the evening. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Middle Atlantic... Seasonally high PW values and light west-southwesterly mid-level flow will once again favor a few slow-moving line segments and clusters. Storms will be diurnally driven, and convection should focus along a very weak zone of low-level confluence that should extend across the Delmarva into central VA. Locally strong gusts are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Broadly cyclonic westerlies, currently noted over the northern Plains, will gradually shift east and sag south across the upper MS Valley late in the period. Mid-level flow south of I-70 will remain seasonally weak, and the prospect for organized convection south of this corridor is low. Early this morning, a weak synoptic front stretched from northwestern MN into northern NE before arcing into eastern WY. This boundary is forecast to sag south and east through the period with a late-afternoon position expected from northern WI-central IA-northwest KS-arcing into southeast WY. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development and the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains into extreme southeast NE. Convective temperatures will be easily breached along the boundary over northern KS as temperatures soar through the upper 90s to near 100F. Forecast soundings exhibit cloud bases near 3km in this environment and fairly high PWs favor damaging winds despite the relative weak shear across this region. Farther northeast, remnants of early-day convection will spread across southern MN/northwest IA. This activity will propagate southeast and likely influence redevelopment where differential heating is greatest. Some short-range guidance suggests an MCS may propagate south along the NE/IA border, with some upscale growth possible by early evening. While not all models agree, this signal is likely real, especially as a weak LLJ is forecast across eastern KS into northwest MO into the evening. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Middle Atlantic... Seasonally high PW values and light west-southwesterly mid-level flow will once again favor a few slow-moving line segments and clusters. Storms will be diurnally driven, and convection should focus along a very weak zone of low-level confluence that should extend across the Delmarva into central VA. Locally strong gusts are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Broadly cyclonic westerlies, currently noted over the northern Plains, will gradually shift east and sag south across the upper MS Valley late in the period. Mid-level flow south of I-70 will remain seasonally weak, and the prospect for organized convection south of this corridor is low. Early this morning, a weak synoptic front stretched from northwestern MN into northern NE before arcing into eastern WY. This boundary is forecast to sag south and east through the period with a late-afternoon position expected from northern WI-central IA-northwest KS-arcing into southeast WY. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development and the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains into extreme southeast NE. Convective temperatures will be easily breached along the boundary over northern KS as temperatures soar through the upper 90s to near 100F. Forecast soundings exhibit cloud bases near 3km in this environment and fairly high PWs favor damaging winds despite the relative weak shear across this region. Farther northeast, remnants of early-day convection will spread across southern MN/northwest IA. This activity will propagate southeast and likely influence redevelopment where differential heating is greatest. Some short-range guidance suggests an MCS may propagate south along the NE/IA border, with some upscale growth possible by early evening. While not all models agree, this signal is likely real, especially as a weak LLJ is forecast across eastern KS into northwest MO into the evening. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Middle Atlantic... Seasonally high PW values and light west-southwesterly mid-level flow will once again favor a few slow-moving line segments and clusters. Storms will be diurnally driven, and convection should focus along a very weak zone of low-level confluence that should extend across the Delmarva into central VA. Locally strong gusts are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Broadly cyclonic westerlies, currently noted over the northern Plains, will gradually shift east and sag south across the upper MS Valley late in the period. Mid-level flow south of I-70 will remain seasonally weak, and the prospect for organized convection south of this corridor is low. Early this morning, a weak synoptic front stretched from northwestern MN into northern NE before arcing into eastern WY. This boundary is forecast to sag south and east through the period with a late-afternoon position expected from northern WI-central IA-northwest KS-arcing into southeast WY. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development and the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains into extreme southeast NE. Convective temperatures will be easily breached along the boundary over northern KS as temperatures soar through the upper 90s to near 100F. Forecast soundings exhibit cloud bases near 3km in this environment and fairly high PWs favor damaging winds despite the relative weak shear across this region. Farther northeast, remnants of early-day convection will spread across southern MN/northwest IA. This activity will propagate southeast and likely influence redevelopment where differential heating is greatest. Some short-range guidance suggests an MCS may propagate south along the NE/IA border, with some upscale growth possible by early evening. While not all models agree, this signal is likely real, especially as a weak LLJ is forecast across eastern KS into northwest MO into the evening. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Middle Atlantic... Seasonally high PW values and light west-southwesterly mid-level flow will once again favor a few slow-moving line segments and clusters. Storms will be diurnally driven, and convection should focus along a very weak zone of low-level confluence that should extend across the Delmarva into central VA. Locally strong gusts are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Broadly cyclonic westerlies, currently noted over the northern Plains, will gradually shift east and sag south across the upper MS Valley late in the period. Mid-level flow south of I-70 will remain seasonally weak, and the prospect for organized convection south of this corridor is low. Early this morning, a weak synoptic front stretched from northwestern MN into northern NE before arcing into eastern WY. This boundary is forecast to sag south and east through the period with a late-afternoon position expected from northern WI-central IA-northwest KS-arcing into southeast WY. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development and the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains into extreme southeast NE. Convective temperatures will be easily breached along the boundary over northern KS as temperatures soar through the upper 90s to near 100F. Forecast soundings exhibit cloud bases near 3km in this environment and fairly high PWs favor damaging winds despite the relative weak shear across this region. Farther northeast, remnants of early-day convection will spread across southern MN/northwest IA. This activity will propagate southeast and likely influence redevelopment where differential heating is greatest. Some short-range guidance suggests an MCS may propagate south along the NE/IA border, with some upscale growth possible by early evening. While not all models agree, this signal is likely real, especially as a weak LLJ is forecast across eastern KS into northwest MO into the evening. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Middle Atlantic... Seasonally high PW values and light west-southwesterly mid-level flow will once again favor a few slow-moving line segments and clusters. Storms will be diurnally driven, and convection should focus along a very weak zone of low-level confluence that should extend across the Delmarva into central VA. Locally strong gusts are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Broadly cyclonic westerlies, currently noted over the northern Plains, will gradually shift east and sag south across the upper MS Valley late in the period. Mid-level flow south of I-70 will remain seasonally weak, and the prospect for organized convection south of this corridor is low. Early this morning, a weak synoptic front stretched from northwestern MN into northern NE before arcing into eastern WY. This boundary is forecast to sag south and east through the period with a late-afternoon position expected from northern WI-central IA-northwest KS-arcing into southeast WY. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development and the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains into extreme southeast NE. Convective temperatures will be easily breached along the boundary over northern KS as temperatures soar through the upper 90s to near 100F. Forecast soundings exhibit cloud bases near 3km in this environment and fairly high PWs favor damaging winds despite the relative weak shear across this region. Farther northeast, remnants of early-day convection will spread across southern MN/northwest IA. This activity will propagate southeast and likely influence redevelopment where differential heating is greatest. Some short-range guidance suggests an MCS may propagate south along the NE/IA border, with some upscale growth possible by early evening. While not all models agree, this signal is likely real, especially as a weak LLJ is forecast across eastern KS into northwest MO into the evening. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Middle Atlantic... Seasonally high PW values and light west-southwesterly mid-level flow will once again favor a few slow-moving line segments and clusters. Storms will be diurnally driven, and convection should focus along a very weak zone of low-level confluence that should extend across the Delmarva into central VA. Locally strong gusts are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Broadly cyclonic westerlies, currently noted over the northern Plains, will gradually shift east and sag south across the upper MS Valley late in the period. Mid-level flow south of I-70 will remain seasonally weak, and the prospect for organized convection south of this corridor is low. Early this morning, a weak synoptic front stretched from northwestern MN into northern NE before arcing into eastern WY. This boundary is forecast to sag south and east through the period with a late-afternoon position expected from northern WI-central IA-northwest KS-arcing into southeast WY. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development and the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains into extreme southeast NE. Convective temperatures will be easily breached along the boundary over northern KS as temperatures soar through the upper 90s to near 100F. Forecast soundings exhibit cloud bases near 3km in this environment and fairly high PWs favor damaging winds despite the relative weak shear across this region. Farther northeast, remnants of early-day convection will spread across southern MN/northwest IA. This activity will propagate southeast and likely influence redevelopment where differential heating is greatest. Some short-range guidance suggests an MCS may propagate south along the NE/IA border, with some upscale growth possible by early evening. While not all models agree, this signal is likely real, especially as a weak LLJ is forecast across eastern KS into northwest MO into the evening. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Middle Atlantic... Seasonally high PW values and light west-southwesterly mid-level flow will once again favor a few slow-moving line segments and clusters. Storms will be diurnally driven, and convection should focus along a very weak zone of low-level confluence that should extend across the Delmarva into central VA. Locally strong gusts are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Broadly cyclonic westerlies, currently noted over the northern Plains, will gradually shift east and sag south across the upper MS Valley late in the period. Mid-level flow south of I-70 will remain seasonally weak, and the prospect for organized convection south of this corridor is low. Early this morning, a weak synoptic front stretched from northwestern MN into northern NE before arcing into eastern WY. This boundary is forecast to sag south and east through the period with a late-afternoon position expected from northern WI-central IA-northwest KS-arcing into southeast WY. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development and the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains into extreme southeast NE. Convective temperatures will be easily breached along the boundary over northern KS as temperatures soar through the upper 90s to near 100F. Forecast soundings exhibit cloud bases near 3km in this environment and fairly high PWs favor damaging winds despite the relative weak shear across this region. Farther northeast, remnants of early-day convection will spread across southern MN/northwest IA. This activity will propagate southeast and likely influence redevelopment where differential heating is greatest. Some short-range guidance suggests an MCS may propagate south along the NE/IA border, with some upscale growth possible by early evening. While not all models agree, this signal is likely real, especially as a weak LLJ is forecast across eastern KS into northwest MO into the evening. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Middle Atlantic... Seasonally high PW values and light west-southwesterly mid-level flow will once again favor a few slow-moving line segments and clusters. Storms will be diurnally driven, and convection should focus along a very weak zone of low-level confluence that should extend across the Delmarva into central VA. Locally strong gusts are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Broadly cyclonic westerlies, currently noted over the northern Plains, will gradually shift east and sag south across the upper MS Valley late in the period. Mid-level flow south of I-70 will remain seasonally weak, and the prospect for organized convection south of this corridor is low. Early this morning, a weak synoptic front stretched from northwestern MN into northern NE before arcing into eastern WY. This boundary is forecast to sag south and east through the period with a late-afternoon position expected from northern WI-central IA-northwest KS-arcing into southeast WY. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development and the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains into extreme southeast NE. Convective temperatures will be easily breached along the boundary over northern KS as temperatures soar through the upper 90s to near 100F. Forecast soundings exhibit cloud bases near 3km in this environment and fairly high PWs favor damaging winds despite the relative weak shear across this region. Farther northeast, remnants of early-day convection will spread across southern MN/northwest IA. This activity will propagate southeast and likely influence redevelopment where differential heating is greatest. Some short-range guidance suggests an MCS may propagate south along the NE/IA border, with some upscale growth possible by early evening. While not all models agree, this signal is likely real, especially as a weak LLJ is forecast across eastern KS into northwest MO into the evening. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Middle Atlantic... Seasonally high PW values and light west-southwesterly mid-level flow will once again favor a few slow-moving line segments and clusters. Storms will be diurnally driven, and convection should focus along a very weak zone of low-level confluence that should extend across the Delmarva into central VA. Locally strong gusts are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Broadly cyclonic westerlies, currently noted over the northern Plains, will gradually shift east and sag south across the upper MS Valley late in the period. Mid-level flow south of I-70 will remain seasonally weak, and the prospect for organized convection south of this corridor is low. Early this morning, a weak synoptic front stretched from northwestern MN into northern NE before arcing into eastern WY. This boundary is forecast to sag south and east through the period with a late-afternoon position expected from northern WI-central IA-northwest KS-arcing into southeast WY. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development and the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains into extreme southeast NE. Convective temperatures will be easily breached along the boundary over northern KS as temperatures soar through the upper 90s to near 100F. Forecast soundings exhibit cloud bases near 3km in this environment and fairly high PWs favor damaging winds despite the relative weak shear across this region. Farther northeast, remnants of early-day convection will spread across southern MN/northwest IA. This activity will propagate southeast and likely influence redevelopment where differential heating is greatest. Some short-range guidance suggests an MCS may propagate south along the NE/IA border, with some upscale growth possible by early evening. While not all models agree, this signal is likely real, especially as a weak LLJ is forecast across eastern KS into northwest MO into the evening. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Middle Atlantic... Seasonally high PW values and light west-southwesterly mid-level flow will once again favor a few slow-moving line segments and clusters. Storms will be diurnally driven, and convection should focus along a very weak zone of low-level confluence that should extend across the Delmarva into central VA. Locally strong gusts are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Broadly cyclonic westerlies, currently noted over the northern Plains, will gradually shift east and sag south across the upper MS Valley late in the period. Mid-level flow south of I-70 will remain seasonally weak, and the prospect for organized convection south of this corridor is low. Early this morning, a weak synoptic front stretched from northwestern MN into northern NE before arcing into eastern WY. This boundary is forecast to sag south and east through the period with a late-afternoon position expected from northern WI-central IA-northwest KS-arcing into southeast WY. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development and the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains into extreme southeast NE. Convective temperatures will be easily breached along the boundary over northern KS as temperatures soar through the upper 90s to near 100F. Forecast soundings exhibit cloud bases near 3km in this environment and fairly high PWs favor damaging winds despite the relative weak shear across this region. Farther northeast, remnants of early-day convection will spread across southern MN/northwest IA. This activity will propagate southeast and likely influence redevelopment where differential heating is greatest. Some short-range guidance suggests an MCS may propagate south along the NE/IA border, with some upscale growth possible by early evening. While not all models agree, this signal is likely real, especially as a weak LLJ is forecast across eastern KS into northwest MO into the evening. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Middle Atlantic... Seasonally high PW values and light west-southwesterly mid-level flow will once again favor a few slow-moving line segments and clusters. Storms will be diurnally driven, and convection should focus along a very weak zone of low-level confluence that should extend across the Delmarva into central VA. Locally strong gusts are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Broadly cyclonic westerlies, currently noted over the northern Plains, will gradually shift east and sag south across the upper MS Valley late in the period. Mid-level flow south of I-70 will remain seasonally weak, and the prospect for organized convection south of this corridor is low. Early this morning, a weak synoptic front stretched from northwestern MN into northern NE before arcing into eastern WY. This boundary is forecast to sag south and east through the period with a late-afternoon position expected from northern WI-central IA-northwest KS-arcing into southeast WY. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development and the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains into extreme southeast NE. Convective temperatures will be easily breached along the boundary over northern KS as temperatures soar through the upper 90s to near 100F. Forecast soundings exhibit cloud bases near 3km in this environment and fairly high PWs favor damaging winds despite the relative weak shear across this region. Farther northeast, remnants of early-day convection will spread across southern MN/northwest IA. This activity will propagate southeast and likely influence redevelopment where differential heating is greatest. Some short-range guidance suggests an MCS may propagate south along the NE/IA border, with some upscale growth possible by early evening. While not all models agree, this signal is likely real, especially as a weak LLJ is forecast across eastern KS into northwest MO into the evening. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Middle Atlantic... Seasonally high PW values and light west-southwesterly mid-level flow will once again favor a few slow-moving line segments and clusters. Storms will be diurnally driven, and convection should focus along a very weak zone of low-level confluence that should extend across the Delmarva into central VA. Locally strong gusts are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/29/2025 Read more

MD 1503 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1503 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...Western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290451Z - 290545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A lone storm could persist for another couple of hours while moving into western South Dakota, but the wind/hail threat is expected to remain isolated and a watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A fairly long-lived storm with some supercell structure has moved into northeast WY from southeast MT. This storm is moving within a post-frontal environment with gradually cooling surface temperatures, so it will likely become more elevated with time. Still, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear are present to maintain the storm, and an associated wind/hail threat, for roughly another two hours or so. Since the storm is expected to weaken beyond that time and the magnitude of the severe threat has peaked or will do so soon, a downstream watch appears unlikely. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR... LAT...LON 44190233 44280350 44410411 44610429 44900424 45090376 45090235 44790207 44350210 44190233 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1502 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1502 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...West central Wisconsin...southern Minnesota and southeast South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 290354Z - 290530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms have evolved into a more linear mode, which suggests a transition to more of a damaging wind/hail threat from here onward. A new severe thunderstorm may be needed by 05-06z from southeast Minnesota into west central Wisconsin. DISCUSSION...Earlier supercell clusters have evolved into a more linear mode over the past 1-2 hours, with evidence of a weak MCV/comma head north of Minneapolis. Farther west, a more east-west oriented band and an increasing low-level jet suggest continued development as the aggregate cold pool sags southward. Even farther west, convection has developed recently along the cold front near the NE/SD border, and this could be a precursor to additional storm development/expansion into southeast SD overnight. Midlevel lapse rates remain quite steep from southern MN west-southwestward, while wind profiles are more favorable for an organized/bowing segment from Minneapolis northward (near an north of a subtle warm front). Confidence in the details of convective evolution are not particularly high, but enough threat for damaging winds and some hail persists to potentially warrant one or more severe thunderstorm watches into the overnight hours from west central WI across southern MN to southeast SD. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... LAT...LON 45979276 46109230 45929168 45469169 44749194 44319260 43809348 43459488 43299616 42859691 42709802 42899850 43509845 43889778 43949540 44269413 45059319 45979276 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1501 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1501 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...Southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 290301Z - 290500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase overnight near the Nebraska/South Dakota border. If sufficient clustering of convection occurs, then there will be the potential for severe outflow gusts and a watch may need to be considered by about 04-05z. DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell has dissipated across south central SD, but new convection has been forming to the west atop outflow and a surface cold front. As a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet forms, warm advection atop the frontal surface will increase, coincident with an increase in midlevel moisture from the west that is related to earlier high-based convection in WY/NE Panhandle. This scenario will favor an increase in elevated convection near the NE/SD border through the overnight hours. Though this corridor is along the southern edge of the midlevel westerlies, midlevel lapse rates remain very steep (8.5 C/km or greater) and profiles will still be favorable for both strong updrafts and downdrafts. If sufficient clustering of storms can occur, then there will be some concern for severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail, and the conditional potential for a severe thunderstorm watch by roughly 04-05z. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42479905 42470128 42620221 43140229 43320186 43610026 43649893 43239857 42749870 42479905 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more