Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida. A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS will keep severe weather chances minimal. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains, beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend. However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida. A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS will keep severe weather chances minimal. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains, beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend. However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida. A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS will keep severe weather chances minimal. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains, beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend. However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida. A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS will keep severe weather chances minimal. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains, beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend. However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida. A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS will keep severe weather chances minimal. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains, beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend. However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida. A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS will keep severe weather chances minimal. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains, beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend. However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida. A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS will keep severe weather chances minimal. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains, beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend. However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida. A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS will keep severe weather chances minimal. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains, beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend. However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

MD 1504 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 475...476... FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1504 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Wisconsin...Southern Minnesota...Far Northwest Iowa...Southeast South Dakota...Northeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475...476... Valid 290601Z - 290800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475, 476 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts will be possible along and just ahead of the more intense parts of a line moving through the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. A brief tornado will also be possible. DISCUSSION...A linear MCS is currently ongoing from northern Nebraska northeastward into southern Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin. Ahead of the MCS, surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70S F. The RAP shows moderate instability located ahead of the line, with MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs at Sioux Falls and Minneapolis have 0-6 km shear near 35 knots, with some directional shear in the low-levels. This should support a wind-damage threat with the more intense bowing line segments embedded within the linear MCS. In addition, RAP forecast soundings around 06Z just ahead of the line have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near and above 200 m2/s2. This will be enough for a marginal tornado threat. The severe threat is expected to continue as the MCS moves eastward, but should become more isolated with time as instability begins to steadily drop across the region. ..Broyles.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... LAT...LON 46009170 46129163 46349126 46219054 45849022 45369027 44659080 43809235 43309381 43059486 42699620 42229759 42209835 42349867 42589871 42999814 43499749 43989665 44239594 44289444 44679350 45169276 45639208 46009170 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more