Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track with no changes to Elevated highlights across southwestern Wyoming. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southern Arizona. Drought conditions and above normal fine fuel loading along with sustained west winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity of 10-15 percent will bring a brief and localized fire weather threat to southern Arizona today. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track with no changes to Elevated highlights across southwestern Wyoming. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southern Arizona. Drought conditions and above normal fine fuel loading along with sustained west winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity of 10-15 percent will bring a brief and localized fire weather threat to southern Arizona today. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track with no changes to Elevated highlights across southwestern Wyoming. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southern Arizona. Drought conditions and above normal fine fuel loading along with sustained west winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity of 10-15 percent will bring a brief and localized fire weather threat to southern Arizona today. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track with no changes to Elevated highlights across southwestern Wyoming. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southern Arizona. Drought conditions and above normal fine fuel loading along with sustained west winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity of 10-15 percent will bring a brief and localized fire weather threat to southern Arizona today. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track with no changes to Elevated highlights across southwestern Wyoming. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southern Arizona. Drought conditions and above normal fine fuel loading along with sustained west winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity of 10-15 percent will bring a brief and localized fire weather threat to southern Arizona today. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track with no changes to Elevated highlights across southwestern Wyoming. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southern Arizona. Drought conditions and above normal fine fuel loading along with sustained west winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity of 10-15 percent will bring a brief and localized fire weather threat to southern Arizona today. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track with no changes to Elevated highlights across southwestern Wyoming. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southern Arizona. Drought conditions and above normal fine fuel loading along with sustained west winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity of 10-15 percent will bring a brief and localized fire weather threat to southern Arizona today. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track with no changes to Elevated highlights across southwestern Wyoming. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southern Arizona. Drought conditions and above normal fine fuel loading along with sustained west winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity of 10-15 percent will bring a brief and localized fire weather threat to southern Arizona today. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track with no changes to Elevated highlights across southwestern Wyoming. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southern Arizona. Drought conditions and above normal fine fuel loading along with sustained west winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity of 10-15 percent will bring a brief and localized fire weather threat to southern Arizona today. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more