Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Belt of stronger westerlies will remain confined to the U.S.-Canadian border states as a mid- to upper-level trough shifts east from the MT/ND vicinity into the Upper Midwest late. A surface front is analyzed this morning from the Upper Midwest, where it is ill defined and modulated by convective outflow, southwestward into northern KS and arcing west-northwest into the central High Plains. Some eastward movement is forecast during the day across the Upper Midwest whereas the frontal segment over the central Great Plains will become stationary this afternoon. This boundary and associated composite outflow will serve as the primary focus for renewed shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon into tonight. A decaying MCS over western IA/southeast NE this morning will further weaken and an ongoing corridor of weak thunderstorms extends southeast from the MCS through the lower MO Valley. Removed from cloud debris, strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization from WI southwestward into KS, where 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by mid afternoon. The aforementioned displacement of this region from stronger mid and high-level flow will limit potential for greater storm organization. However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve into several small-scale bands and clusters from the western Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley posing mainly a wind risk with the stronger storms. Stronger heating farther west over central KS westward into parts of the central High Plains will result in steep low to mid-level tropospheric lapse rates. Evaporative cooling of stronger water-laden downdrafts will yield a threat for severe gusts across the central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley. Hail may accompany the stronger cores, but this risk will be limited by a deep melting layer and a multicellular storm mode. A couple of clusters may persist through the evening and into the overnight as this activity shifts southward, perhaps into southeast KS and northern OK late. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Mid Atlantic states... A moist and moderately unstable airmass will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon across the region. High PW and steepened surface to 850-mb lapse rates amidst weak shear will result in relatively disorganized individual storms and smaller clusters. Localized strong to severe gusts (50-60 mph) may result and yield pockets of wind damage with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Belt of stronger westerlies will remain confined to the U.S.-Canadian border states as a mid- to upper-level trough shifts east from the MT/ND vicinity into the Upper Midwest late. A surface front is analyzed this morning from the Upper Midwest, where it is ill defined and modulated by convective outflow, southwestward into northern KS and arcing west-northwest into the central High Plains. Some eastward movement is forecast during the day across the Upper Midwest whereas the frontal segment over the central Great Plains will become stationary this afternoon. This boundary and associated composite outflow will serve as the primary focus for renewed shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon into tonight. A decaying MCS over western IA/southeast NE this morning will further weaken and an ongoing corridor of weak thunderstorms extends southeast from the MCS through the lower MO Valley. Removed from cloud debris, strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization from WI southwestward into KS, where 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by mid afternoon. The aforementioned displacement of this region from stronger mid and high-level flow will limit potential for greater storm organization. However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve into several small-scale bands and clusters from the western Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley posing mainly a wind risk with the stronger storms. Stronger heating farther west over central KS westward into parts of the central High Plains will result in steep low to mid-level tropospheric lapse rates. Evaporative cooling of stronger water-laden downdrafts will yield a threat for severe gusts across the central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley. Hail may accompany the stronger cores, but this risk will be limited by a deep melting layer and a multicellular storm mode. A couple of clusters may persist through the evening and into the overnight as this activity shifts southward, perhaps into southeast KS and northern OK late. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Mid Atlantic states... A moist and moderately unstable airmass will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon across the region. High PW and steepened surface to 850-mb lapse rates amidst weak shear will result in relatively disorganized individual storms and smaller clusters. Localized strong to severe gusts (50-60 mph) may result and yield pockets of wind damage with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Belt of stronger westerlies will remain confined to the U.S.-Canadian border states as a mid- to upper-level trough shifts east from the MT/ND vicinity into the Upper Midwest late. A surface front is analyzed this morning from the Upper Midwest, where it is ill defined and modulated by convective outflow, southwestward into northern KS and arcing west-northwest into the central High Plains. Some eastward movement is forecast during the day across the Upper Midwest whereas the frontal segment over the central Great Plains will become stationary this afternoon. This boundary and associated composite outflow will serve as the primary focus for renewed shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon into tonight. A decaying MCS over western IA/southeast NE this morning will further weaken and an ongoing corridor of weak thunderstorms extends southeast from the MCS through the lower MO Valley. Removed from cloud debris, strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization from WI southwestward into KS, where 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by mid afternoon. The aforementioned displacement of this region from stronger mid and high-level flow will limit potential for greater storm organization. However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve into several small-scale bands and clusters from the western Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley posing mainly a wind risk with the stronger storms. Stronger heating farther west over central KS westward into parts of the central High Plains will result in steep low to mid-level tropospheric lapse rates. Evaporative cooling of stronger water-laden downdrafts will yield a threat for severe gusts across the central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley. Hail may accompany the stronger cores, but this risk will be limited by a deep melting layer and a multicellular storm mode. A couple of clusters may persist through the evening and into the overnight as this activity shifts southward, perhaps into southeast KS and northern OK late. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Mid Atlantic states... A moist and moderately unstable airmass will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon across the region. High PW and steepened surface to 850-mb lapse rates amidst weak shear will result in relatively disorganized individual storms and smaller clusters. Localized strong to severe gusts (50-60 mph) may result and yield pockets of wind damage with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Belt of stronger westerlies will remain confined to the U.S.-Canadian border states as a mid- to upper-level trough shifts east from the MT/ND vicinity into the Upper Midwest late. A surface front is analyzed this morning from the Upper Midwest, where it is ill defined and modulated by convective outflow, southwestward into northern KS and arcing west-northwest into the central High Plains. Some eastward movement is forecast during the day across the Upper Midwest whereas the frontal segment over the central Great Plains will become stationary this afternoon. This boundary and associated composite outflow will serve as the primary focus for renewed shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon into tonight. A decaying MCS over western IA/southeast NE this morning will further weaken and an ongoing corridor of weak thunderstorms extends southeast from the MCS through the lower MO Valley. Removed from cloud debris, strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization from WI southwestward into KS, where 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by mid afternoon. The aforementioned displacement of this region from stronger mid and high-level flow will limit potential for greater storm organization. However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve into several small-scale bands and clusters from the western Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley posing mainly a wind risk with the stronger storms. Stronger heating farther west over central KS westward into parts of the central High Plains will result in steep low to mid-level tropospheric lapse rates. Evaporative cooling of stronger water-laden downdrafts will yield a threat for severe gusts across the central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley. Hail may accompany the stronger cores, but this risk will be limited by a deep melting layer and a multicellular storm mode. A couple of clusters may persist through the evening and into the overnight as this activity shifts southward, perhaps into southeast KS and northern OK late. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Mid Atlantic states... A moist and moderately unstable airmass will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon across the region. High PW and steepened surface to 850-mb lapse rates amidst weak shear will result in relatively disorganized individual storms and smaller clusters. Localized strong to severe gusts (50-60 mph) may result and yield pockets of wind damage with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Belt of stronger westerlies will remain confined to the U.S.-Canadian border states as a mid- to upper-level trough shifts east from the MT/ND vicinity into the Upper Midwest late. A surface front is analyzed this morning from the Upper Midwest, where it is ill defined and modulated by convective outflow, southwestward into northern KS and arcing west-northwest into the central High Plains. Some eastward movement is forecast during the day across the Upper Midwest whereas the frontal segment over the central Great Plains will become stationary this afternoon. This boundary and associated composite outflow will serve as the primary focus for renewed shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon into tonight. A decaying MCS over western IA/southeast NE this morning will further weaken and an ongoing corridor of weak thunderstorms extends southeast from the MCS through the lower MO Valley. Removed from cloud debris, strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization from WI southwestward into KS, where 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by mid afternoon. The aforementioned displacement of this region from stronger mid and high-level flow will limit potential for greater storm organization. However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve into several small-scale bands and clusters from the western Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley posing mainly a wind risk with the stronger storms. Stronger heating farther west over central KS westward into parts of the central High Plains will result in steep low to mid-level tropospheric lapse rates. Evaporative cooling of stronger water-laden downdrafts will yield a threat for severe gusts across the central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley. Hail may accompany the stronger cores, but this risk will be limited by a deep melting layer and a multicellular storm mode. A couple of clusters may persist through the evening and into the overnight as this activity shifts southward, perhaps into southeast KS and northern OK late. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Mid Atlantic states... A moist and moderately unstable airmass will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon across the region. High PW and steepened surface to 850-mb lapse rates amidst weak shear will result in relatively disorganized individual storms and smaller clusters. Localized strong to severe gusts (50-60 mph) may result and yield pockets of wind damage with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Belt of stronger westerlies will remain confined to the U.S.-Canadian border states as a mid- to upper-level trough shifts east from the MT/ND vicinity into the Upper Midwest late. A surface front is analyzed this morning from the Upper Midwest, where it is ill defined and modulated by convective outflow, southwestward into northern KS and arcing west-northwest into the central High Plains. Some eastward movement is forecast during the day across the Upper Midwest whereas the frontal segment over the central Great Plains will become stationary this afternoon. This boundary and associated composite outflow will serve as the primary focus for renewed shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon into tonight. A decaying MCS over western IA/southeast NE this morning will further weaken and an ongoing corridor of weak thunderstorms extends southeast from the MCS through the lower MO Valley. Removed from cloud debris, strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization from WI southwestward into KS, where 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by mid afternoon. The aforementioned displacement of this region from stronger mid and high-level flow will limit potential for greater storm organization. However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve into several small-scale bands and clusters from the western Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley posing mainly a wind risk with the stronger storms. Stronger heating farther west over central KS westward into parts of the central High Plains will result in steep low to mid-level tropospheric lapse rates. Evaporative cooling of stronger water-laden downdrafts will yield a threat for severe gusts across the central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley. Hail may accompany the stronger cores, but this risk will be limited by a deep melting layer and a multicellular storm mode. A couple of clusters may persist through the evening and into the overnight as this activity shifts southward, perhaps into southeast KS and northern OK late. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Mid Atlantic states... A moist and moderately unstable airmass will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon across the region. High PW and steepened surface to 850-mb lapse rates amidst weak shear will result in relatively disorganized individual storms and smaller clusters. Localized strong to severe gusts (50-60 mph) may result and yield pockets of wind damage with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains... Belt of stronger westerlies will remain confined to the U.S.-Canadian border states as a mid- to upper-level trough shifts east from the MT/ND vicinity into the Upper Midwest late. A surface front is analyzed this morning from the Upper Midwest, where it is ill defined and modulated by convective outflow, southwestward into northern KS and arcing west-northwest into the central High Plains. Some eastward movement is forecast during the day across the Upper Midwest whereas the frontal segment over the central Great Plains will become stationary this afternoon. This boundary and associated composite outflow will serve as the primary focus for renewed shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon into tonight. A decaying MCS over western IA/southeast NE this morning will further weaken and an ongoing corridor of weak thunderstorms extends southeast from the MCS through the lower MO Valley. Removed from cloud debris, strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization from WI southwestward into KS, where 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by mid afternoon. The aforementioned displacement of this region from stronger mid and high-level flow will limit potential for greater storm organization. However, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve into several small-scale bands and clusters from the western Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley posing mainly a wind risk with the stronger storms. Stronger heating farther west over central KS westward into parts of the central High Plains will result in steep low to mid-level tropospheric lapse rates. Evaporative cooling of stronger water-laden downdrafts will yield a threat for severe gusts across the central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley. Hail may accompany the stronger cores, but this risk will be limited by a deep melting layer and a multicellular storm mode. A couple of clusters may persist through the evening and into the overnight as this activity shifts southward, perhaps into southeast KS and northern OK late. Another corridor where strong/severe convection is expected is across the High Plains from eastern WY into northeast CO. Northwest flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern High Plains along the back side of the trough. Isolated supercells are expected to develop along the synoptic front that will be draped across this region. Forecast soundings do not exhibit strong buoyancy, but modest shear and moist profiles favor organized updrafts that should spread southeast toward the NE Panhandle. Large hail and wind are expected. ...Mid Atlantic states... A moist and moderately unstable airmass will favor isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon across the region. High PW and steepened surface to 850-mb lapse rates amidst weak shear will result in relatively disorganized individual storms and smaller clusters. Localized strong to severe gusts (50-60 mph) may result and yield pockets of wind damage with the stronger cores. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/29/2025 Read more

MD 1505 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...Northwest and Central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290947Z - 291215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of northwest and central Iowa early this morning. Due to the marginal nature of the threat, the chance of an additional weather watch appears low. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Sioux Falls, South Dakota shows a bowing line segment across far northwest Iowa, which is located along a northwest-to-southeast gradient of moderate instability. Near this area over northwest Iowa, the RAP suggests that 700-500 mb lapse rates are 8 to 8.5 C/km. This will likely help maintain an isolated wind-damage threat over the next couple of hours over northwest and central Iowa. Also, forecast soundings have a sharp temperature inversion in the low-levels from the surface to about 900 mb. This factor, along with decreasing instability, should make any severe threat increasingly marginal with time. ..Broyles/Smith.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 43129560 42269598 41899598 41639562 41479500 41549368 42289323 42899347 43249438 43129560 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 475 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-119-141-143-167-291040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA SIOUX MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-291040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC003-015-027-089-107-139-149-291040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOYD CEDAR HOLT KNOX PIERCE Read more

WW 475 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 290415Z - 291000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 475 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1115 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple linear complexes of storms will likely move through the region into the overnight, with wind damage and sporadic hail as the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northeast of Worthington MN to 45 miles west northwest of Oneill NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 474... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida. A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS will keep severe weather chances minimal. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains, beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend. However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida. A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS will keep severe weather chances minimal. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains, beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend. However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida. A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS will keep severe weather chances minimal. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains, beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend. However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been added at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida. A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS will keep severe weather chances minimal. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains, beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend. However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been added at this time. Read more