SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 475 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-119-141-143-167-290740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA SIOUX MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-290740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC003-015-027-089-107-139-149-290740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOYD CEDAR HOLT KNOX PIERCE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 475 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-119-141-143-167-290740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA SIOUX MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-290740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC003-015-027-089-107-139-149-290740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOYD CEDAR HOLT KNOX PIERCE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 475 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-119-141-143-167-290740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA SIOUX MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-290740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC003-015-027-089-107-139-149-290740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOYD CEDAR HOLT KNOX PIERCE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE RWF TO 20 SSW MSP TO 60 NE MSP TO 60 NNW EAU TO 35 SW ASX. ..BROYLES..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC013-037-039-043-047-049-079-091-109-131-147-157-161-163-165- 290740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DAKOTA DODGE FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE LE SUEUR MARTIN OLMSTED RICE STEELE WABASHA WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WIC005-011-017-033-035-091-093-095-099-107-109-113-119-290740- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE PEPIN PIERCE POLK PRICE RUSK ST. CROIX SAWYER TAYLOR Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE RWF TO 20 SSW MSP TO 60 NE MSP TO 60 NNW EAU TO 35 SW ASX. ..BROYLES..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC013-037-039-043-047-049-079-091-109-131-147-157-161-163-165- 290740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DAKOTA DODGE FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE LE SUEUR MARTIN OLMSTED RICE STEELE WABASHA WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WIC005-011-017-033-035-091-093-095-099-107-109-113-119-290740- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE PEPIN PIERCE POLK PRICE RUSK ST. CROIX SAWYER TAYLOR Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE RWF TO 20 SSW MSP TO 60 NE MSP TO 60 NNW EAU TO 35 SW ASX. ..BROYLES..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC013-037-039-043-047-049-079-091-109-131-147-157-161-163-165- 290740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DAKOTA DODGE FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE LE SUEUR MARTIN OLMSTED RICE STEELE WABASHA WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WIC005-011-017-033-035-091-093-095-099-107-109-113-119-290740- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE PEPIN PIERCE POLK PRICE RUSK ST. CROIX SAWYER TAYLOR Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476 Status Reports

2 months 1 week ago
WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE RWF TO 20 SSW MSP TO 60 NE MSP TO 60 NNW EAU TO 35 SW ASX. ..BROYLES..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC013-037-039-043-047-049-079-091-109-131-147-157-161-163-165- 290740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DAKOTA DODGE FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE LE SUEUR MARTIN OLMSTED RICE STEELE WABASHA WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WIC005-011-017-033-035-091-093-095-099-107-109-113-119-290740- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE PEPIN PIERCE POLK PRICE RUSK ST. CROIX SAWYER TAYLOR Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476

2 months 1 week ago
WW 476 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 290430Z - 291000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 476 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Eastern Minnesota Western and Northwest Wisconsin * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1130 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An expanding/organizing quasi-linear convective complex will continue to pose mainly a damaging wind threat overnight from southern/eastern Minnesota into western/northwest Wisconsin. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles northeast of Eau Claire WI to 30 miles west of Mankato MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 474...WW 475... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Jun 29, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Great Lakes on Monday with a persistent ridge across the western CONUS and a closed low off the California coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Midwest into the Great Lakes... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the western Great Lakes/Midwest Monday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the 70s. Mid-level lapse rates will not be that steep, but instability and forcing should be sufficient to support some strong updrafts. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow across the warm sector will lead to modest shear which could result in multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. 00Z CAM guidance suggest the potential for storms ahead of and along the front with some post-frontal storms also possible across Wisconsin beneath the colder air aloft. This cooler air aloft may result in isolated large hail from the post-frontal storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 29, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Great Lakes on Monday with a persistent ridge across the western CONUS and a closed low off the California coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Midwest into the Great Lakes... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the western Great Lakes/Midwest Monday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the 70s. Mid-level lapse rates will not be that steep, but instability and forcing should be sufficient to support some strong updrafts. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow across the warm sector will lead to modest shear which could result in multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. 00Z CAM guidance suggest the potential for storms ahead of and along the front with some post-frontal storms also possible across Wisconsin beneath the colder air aloft. This cooler air aloft may result in isolated large hail from the post-frontal storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 29, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Great Lakes on Monday with a persistent ridge across the western CONUS and a closed low off the California coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Midwest into the Great Lakes... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the western Great Lakes/Midwest Monday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the 70s. Mid-level lapse rates will not be that steep, but instability and forcing should be sufficient to support some strong updrafts. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow across the warm sector will lead to modest shear which could result in multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. 00Z CAM guidance suggest the potential for storms ahead of and along the front with some post-frontal storms also possible across Wisconsin beneath the colder air aloft. This cooler air aloft may result in isolated large hail from the post-frontal storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 29, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Great Lakes on Monday with a persistent ridge across the western CONUS and a closed low off the California coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Midwest into the Great Lakes... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the western Great Lakes/Midwest Monday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the 70s. Mid-level lapse rates will not be that steep, but instability and forcing should be sufficient to support some strong updrafts. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow across the warm sector will lead to modest shear which could result in multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. 00Z CAM guidance suggest the potential for storms ahead of and along the front with some post-frontal storms also possible across Wisconsin beneath the colder air aloft. This cooler air aloft may result in isolated large hail from the post-frontal storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 29, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Great Lakes on Monday with a persistent ridge across the western CONUS and a closed low off the California coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Midwest into the Great Lakes... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the western Great Lakes/Midwest Monday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the 70s. Mid-level lapse rates will not be that steep, but instability and forcing should be sufficient to support some strong updrafts. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow across the warm sector will lead to modest shear which could result in multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. 00Z CAM guidance suggest the potential for storms ahead of and along the front with some post-frontal storms also possible across Wisconsin beneath the colder air aloft. This cooler air aloft may result in isolated large hail from the post-frontal storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 29, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Great Lakes on Monday with a persistent ridge across the western CONUS and a closed low off the California coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Midwest into the Great Lakes... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the western Great Lakes/Midwest Monday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the 70s. Mid-level lapse rates will not be that steep, but instability and forcing should be sufficient to support some strong updrafts. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow across the warm sector will lead to modest shear which could result in multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. 00Z CAM guidance suggest the potential for storms ahead of and along the front with some post-frontal storms also possible across Wisconsin beneath the colder air aloft. This cooler air aloft may result in isolated large hail from the post-frontal storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 29, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Great Lakes on Monday with a persistent ridge across the western CONUS and a closed low off the California coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Midwest into the Great Lakes... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the western Great Lakes/Midwest Monday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with dewpoints in the 70s. Mid-level lapse rates will not be that steep, but instability and forcing should be sufficient to support some strong updrafts. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow across the warm sector will lead to modest shear which could result in multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. 00Z CAM guidance suggest the potential for storms ahead of and along the front with some post-frontal storms also possible across Wisconsin beneath the colder air aloft. This cooler air aloft may result in isolated large hail from the post-frontal storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more
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