Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will likely be less organized. Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania northward. This may result in greater storms organization including the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km) which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast. ..Bentley.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave troughing over the northern US is forecast to move eastward as sub-tropical ridging begins to build over the West. A weak cold front will move south shifting winds to northwesterly over the Rockies and northern Plains. While weaker than the preceding days, lingering flow aloft will still aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest WY. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid very dry fuels will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest WY. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more