Severe Storms

MD 1498 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 474... FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1498 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...far eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota Concerning...Tornado Watch 474... Valid 290032Z - 290200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 474 continues. SUMMARY...Several maturing supercells will pose an increasing risk for tornadoes this evening across far eastern SD into western MN. A strong tornado is also possible. DISCUSSION...Early this evening, several supercells have rapidly organized in the vicinity of the MN/SD border across Tornado Watch #474. The southern most of theses cells in Duel County, SD has recently become tornadic as observed from video streams and storm reports. As these supercells continue to mature and move east along a broad warm frontal zone, they will continue to interact with strong low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 200 + m2/s2) observed from the MPX and FSD VADs. With large buoyancy (MLCAPE >4000 J/kg) also in place, the environment remains very supportive of supercells and tornadoes, some of which could be strong given observed STP values of 2-3. The tornado threat will remain highest with discrete/semi-discrete supercells. Some upscale growth remains possible later this evening, which could begin to limit the tornado threat. But for the time being, a favorable storm mode and environment suggest the threat for tornadoes is likely to increase across far eastern SD into western MN this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 44719708 44439658 44409557 44569465 45299441 45709433 45899484 45669597 45299641 44719708 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0473 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 473 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW PHP TO 5 W PHP TO 30 N 9V9. ..THOMPSON..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 473 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-071-075-085-095-121-123-290240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1497 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1497 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...Western Kansas and southeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 282336Z - 290100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...High-based storms will be capable of producing a few downbursts with strong-severe outflow gusts, but a watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...High-based convection continues to form in a deeply mixed environment with hot surface temperatures from southeast CO into western KS, with new development likely with outflow mergers. Inverted-V profiles will favor strong downbursts with isolated severe outflow winds, but weak vertical shear suggests little to organize the convection other than the spreading outflows. As such, the severe threat appears rather disorganized and should be confined to the next 3 hours or so, so a watch appears unlikely. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 39830055 38850052 38120101 37410181 37120246 37150305 37560318 37980305 38640197 39500174 39880144 39830055 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more