Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... An approaching mid-level trough will aid in northward moisture transport into northern California beginning Day 2/Sunday. Steeper mid-level lapse rates and instability along with dry surface conditions will promote a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment across northern California into south central Oregon for Day 3/Monday. Trough advancement will be rather slow through midweek, keeping dry thunderstorm threat across northern California into southern/southeastern Oregon by Day 4/Tuesday. Farther east, uniform southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough will promote strong south winds at the surface from the Mojave Desert into much of central and eastern Nevada. Enhanced southerly winds will be complimented with low relative humidity, hot temperatures as well as dry fuels, prompted inclusion of 40 percent probability of critical fire weather conditions for Day 4/Tuesday. Monsoon moisture will simultaneously be surging northwestward into the Intermountain West early next week. The initial push of elevated moisture along with daytime heating will promote dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central and southwestern Utah on Day 4/Tuesday. The thunderstorm threat extends into Day 5/Wednesday across much of the Intermountain West, but some uncertainty exists in expected magnitude of monsoon moisture which could enhance precipitation amounts, roughly east of the Nevada/Utah border. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Friday... The upper-level ridge axis shifts eastward into the Great Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a potential negatively tilted mid-level trough moving into the West Coast. The attendant mid-level jet maxima will present a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Great Basin Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday where minimal rainfall from monsoon moisture is expected. 40 percent probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were added to portions of southern Nevada, western Utah and northwestern Arizona. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... An approaching mid-level trough will aid in northward moisture transport into northern California beginning Day 2/Sunday. Steeper mid-level lapse rates and instability along with dry surface conditions will promote a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment across northern California into south central Oregon for Day 3/Monday. Trough advancement will be rather slow through midweek, keeping dry thunderstorm threat across northern California into southern/southeastern Oregon by Day 4/Tuesday. Farther east, uniform southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough will promote strong south winds at the surface from the Mojave Desert into much of central and eastern Nevada. Enhanced southerly winds will be complimented with low relative humidity, hot temperatures as well as dry fuels, prompted inclusion of 40 percent probability of critical fire weather conditions for Day 4/Tuesday. Monsoon moisture will simultaneously be surging northwestward into the Intermountain West early next week. The initial push of elevated moisture along with daytime heating will promote dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central and southwestern Utah on Day 4/Tuesday. The thunderstorm threat extends into Day 5/Wednesday across much of the Intermountain West, but some uncertainty exists in expected magnitude of monsoon moisture which could enhance precipitation amounts, roughly east of the Nevada/Utah border. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Friday... The upper-level ridge axis shifts eastward into the Great Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a potential negatively tilted mid-level trough moving into the West Coast. The attendant mid-level jet maxima will present a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Great Basin Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday where minimal rainfall from monsoon moisture is expected. 40 percent probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were added to portions of southern Nevada, western Utah and northwestern Arizona. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... An approaching mid-level trough will aid in northward moisture transport into northern California beginning Day 2/Sunday. Steeper mid-level lapse rates and instability along with dry surface conditions will promote a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment across northern California into south central Oregon for Day 3/Monday. Trough advancement will be rather slow through midweek, keeping dry thunderstorm threat across northern California into southern/southeastern Oregon by Day 4/Tuesday. Farther east, uniform southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough will promote strong south winds at the surface from the Mojave Desert into much of central and eastern Nevada. Enhanced southerly winds will be complimented with low relative humidity, hot temperatures as well as dry fuels, prompted inclusion of 40 percent probability of critical fire weather conditions for Day 4/Tuesday. Monsoon moisture will simultaneously be surging northwestward into the Intermountain West early next week. The initial push of elevated moisture along with daytime heating will promote dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central and southwestern Utah on Day 4/Tuesday. The thunderstorm threat extends into Day 5/Wednesday across much of the Intermountain West, but some uncertainty exists in expected magnitude of monsoon moisture which could enhance precipitation amounts, roughly east of the Nevada/Utah border. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Friday... The upper-level ridge axis shifts eastward into the Great Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a potential negatively tilted mid-level trough moving into the West Coast. The attendant mid-level jet maxima will present a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Great Basin Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday where minimal rainfall from monsoon moisture is expected. 40 percent probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were added to portions of southern Nevada, western Utah and northwestern Arizona. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... An approaching mid-level trough will aid in northward moisture transport into northern California beginning Day 2/Sunday. Steeper mid-level lapse rates and instability along with dry surface conditions will promote a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment across northern California into south central Oregon for Day 3/Monday. Trough advancement will be rather slow through midweek, keeping dry thunderstorm threat across northern California into southern/southeastern Oregon by Day 4/Tuesday. Farther east, uniform southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough will promote strong south winds at the surface from the Mojave Desert into much of central and eastern Nevada. Enhanced southerly winds will be complimented with low relative humidity, hot temperatures as well as dry fuels, prompted inclusion of 40 percent probability of critical fire weather conditions for Day 4/Tuesday. Monsoon moisture will simultaneously be surging northwestward into the Intermountain West early next week. The initial push of elevated moisture along with daytime heating will promote dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central and southwestern Utah on Day 4/Tuesday. The thunderstorm threat extends into Day 5/Wednesday across much of the Intermountain West, but some uncertainty exists in expected magnitude of monsoon moisture which could enhance precipitation amounts, roughly east of the Nevada/Utah border. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Friday... The upper-level ridge axis shifts eastward into the Great Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a potential negatively tilted mid-level trough moving into the West Coast. The attendant mid-level jet maxima will present a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Great Basin Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday where minimal rainfall from monsoon moisture is expected. 40 percent probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were added to portions of southern Nevada, western Utah and northwestern Arizona. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... An approaching mid-level trough will aid in northward moisture transport into northern California beginning Day 2/Sunday. Steeper mid-level lapse rates and instability along with dry surface conditions will promote a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment across northern California into south central Oregon for Day 3/Monday. Trough advancement will be rather slow through midweek, keeping dry thunderstorm threat across northern California into southern/southeastern Oregon by Day 4/Tuesday. Farther east, uniform southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough will promote strong south winds at the surface from the Mojave Desert into much of central and eastern Nevada. Enhanced southerly winds will be complimented with low relative humidity, hot temperatures as well as dry fuels, prompted inclusion of 40 percent probability of critical fire weather conditions for Day 4/Tuesday. Monsoon moisture will simultaneously be surging northwestward into the Intermountain West early next week. The initial push of elevated moisture along with daytime heating will promote dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central and southwestern Utah on Day 4/Tuesday. The thunderstorm threat extends into Day 5/Wednesday across much of the Intermountain West, but some uncertainty exists in expected magnitude of monsoon moisture which could enhance precipitation amounts, roughly east of the Nevada/Utah border. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Friday... The upper-level ridge axis shifts eastward into the Great Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a potential negatively tilted mid-level trough moving into the West Coast. The attendant mid-level jet maxima will present a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Great Basin Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday where minimal rainfall from monsoon moisture is expected. 40 percent probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were added to portions of southern Nevada, western Utah and northwestern Arizona. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... An approaching mid-level trough will aid in northward moisture transport into northern California beginning Day 2/Sunday. Steeper mid-level lapse rates and instability along with dry surface conditions will promote a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment across northern California into south central Oregon for Day 3/Monday. Trough advancement will be rather slow through midweek, keeping dry thunderstorm threat across northern California into southern/southeastern Oregon by Day 4/Tuesday. Farther east, uniform southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough will promote strong south winds at the surface from the Mojave Desert into much of central and eastern Nevada. Enhanced southerly winds will be complimented with low relative humidity, hot temperatures as well as dry fuels, prompted inclusion of 40 percent probability of critical fire weather conditions for Day 4/Tuesday. Monsoon moisture will simultaneously be surging northwestward into the Intermountain West early next week. The initial push of elevated moisture along with daytime heating will promote dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central and southwestern Utah on Day 4/Tuesday. The thunderstorm threat extends into Day 5/Wednesday across much of the Intermountain West, but some uncertainty exists in expected magnitude of monsoon moisture which could enhance precipitation amounts, roughly east of the Nevada/Utah border. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Friday... The upper-level ridge axis shifts eastward into the Great Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a potential negatively tilted mid-level trough moving into the West Coast. The attendant mid-level jet maxima will present a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Great Basin Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday where minimal rainfall from monsoon moisture is expected. 40 percent probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were added to portions of southern Nevada, western Utah and northwestern Arizona. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... An approaching mid-level trough will aid in northward moisture transport into northern California beginning Day 2/Sunday. Steeper mid-level lapse rates and instability along with dry surface conditions will promote a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment across northern California into south central Oregon for Day 3/Monday. Trough advancement will be rather slow through midweek, keeping dry thunderstorm threat across northern California into southern/southeastern Oregon by Day 4/Tuesday. Farther east, uniform southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough will promote strong south winds at the surface from the Mojave Desert into much of central and eastern Nevada. Enhanced southerly winds will be complimented with low relative humidity, hot temperatures as well as dry fuels, prompted inclusion of 40 percent probability of critical fire weather conditions for Day 4/Tuesday. Monsoon moisture will simultaneously be surging northwestward into the Intermountain West early next week. The initial push of elevated moisture along with daytime heating will promote dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central and southwestern Utah on Day 4/Tuesday. The thunderstorm threat extends into Day 5/Wednesday across much of the Intermountain West, but some uncertainty exists in expected magnitude of monsoon moisture which could enhance precipitation amounts, roughly east of the Nevada/Utah border. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Friday... The upper-level ridge axis shifts eastward into the Great Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a potential negatively tilted mid-level trough moving into the West Coast. The attendant mid-level jet maxima will present a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Great Basin Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday where minimal rainfall from monsoon moisture is expected. 40 percent probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were added to portions of southern Nevada, western Utah and northwestern Arizona. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... An approaching mid-level trough will aid in northward moisture transport into northern California beginning Day 2/Sunday. Steeper mid-level lapse rates and instability along with dry surface conditions will promote a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment across northern California into south central Oregon for Day 3/Monday. Trough advancement will be rather slow through midweek, keeping dry thunderstorm threat across northern California into southern/southeastern Oregon by Day 4/Tuesday. Farther east, uniform southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough will promote strong south winds at the surface from the Mojave Desert into much of central and eastern Nevada. Enhanced southerly winds will be complimented with low relative humidity, hot temperatures as well as dry fuels, prompted inclusion of 40 percent probability of critical fire weather conditions for Day 4/Tuesday. Monsoon moisture will simultaneously be surging northwestward into the Intermountain West early next week. The initial push of elevated moisture along with daytime heating will promote dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central and southwestern Utah on Day 4/Tuesday. The thunderstorm threat extends into Day 5/Wednesday across much of the Intermountain West, but some uncertainty exists in expected magnitude of monsoon moisture which could enhance precipitation amounts, roughly east of the Nevada/Utah border. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Friday... The upper-level ridge axis shifts eastward into the Great Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a potential negatively tilted mid-level trough moving into the West Coast. The attendant mid-level jet maxima will present a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Great Basin Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday where minimal rainfall from monsoon moisture is expected. 40 percent probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were added to portions of southern Nevada, western Utah and northwestern Arizona. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... An approaching mid-level trough will aid in northward moisture transport into northern California beginning Day 2/Sunday. Steeper mid-level lapse rates and instability along with dry surface conditions will promote a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment across northern California into south central Oregon for Day 3/Monday. Trough advancement will be rather slow through midweek, keeping dry thunderstorm threat across northern California into southern/southeastern Oregon by Day 4/Tuesday. Farther east, uniform southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough will promote strong south winds at the surface from the Mojave Desert into much of central and eastern Nevada. Enhanced southerly winds will be complimented with low relative humidity, hot temperatures as well as dry fuels, prompted inclusion of 40 percent probability of critical fire weather conditions for Day 4/Tuesday. Monsoon moisture will simultaneously be surging northwestward into the Intermountain West early next week. The initial push of elevated moisture along with daytime heating will promote dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central and southwestern Utah on Day 4/Tuesday. The thunderstorm threat extends into Day 5/Wednesday across much of the Intermountain West, but some uncertainty exists in expected magnitude of monsoon moisture which could enhance precipitation amounts, roughly east of the Nevada/Utah border. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Friday... The upper-level ridge axis shifts eastward into the Great Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a potential negatively tilted mid-level trough moving into the West Coast. The attendant mid-level jet maxima will present a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Great Basin Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday where minimal rainfall from monsoon moisture is expected. 40 percent probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were added to portions of southern Nevada, western Utah and northwestern Arizona. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... An approaching mid-level trough will aid in northward moisture transport into northern California beginning Day 2/Sunday. Steeper mid-level lapse rates and instability along with dry surface conditions will promote a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment across northern California into south central Oregon for Day 3/Monday. Trough advancement will be rather slow through midweek, keeping dry thunderstorm threat across northern California into southern/southeastern Oregon by Day 4/Tuesday. Farther east, uniform southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough will promote strong south winds at the surface from the Mojave Desert into much of central and eastern Nevada. Enhanced southerly winds will be complimented with low relative humidity, hot temperatures as well as dry fuels, prompted inclusion of 40 percent probability of critical fire weather conditions for Day 4/Tuesday. Monsoon moisture will simultaneously be surging northwestward into the Intermountain West early next week. The initial push of elevated moisture along with daytime heating will promote dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central and southwestern Utah on Day 4/Tuesday. The thunderstorm threat extends into Day 5/Wednesday across much of the Intermountain West, but some uncertainty exists in expected magnitude of monsoon moisture which could enhance precipitation amounts, roughly east of the Nevada/Utah border. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Friday... The upper-level ridge axis shifts eastward into the Great Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a potential negatively tilted mid-level trough moving into the West Coast. The attendant mid-level jet maxima will present a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Great Basin Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday where minimal rainfall from monsoon moisture is expected. 40 percent probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were added to portions of southern Nevada, western Utah and northwestern Arizona. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... An approaching mid-level trough will aid in northward moisture transport into northern California beginning Day 2/Sunday. Steeper mid-level lapse rates and instability along with dry surface conditions will promote a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment across northern California into south central Oregon for Day 3/Monday. Trough advancement will be rather slow through midweek, keeping dry thunderstorm threat across northern California into southern/southeastern Oregon by Day 4/Tuesday. Farther east, uniform southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough will promote strong south winds at the surface from the Mojave Desert into much of central and eastern Nevada. Enhanced southerly winds will be complimented with low relative humidity, hot temperatures as well as dry fuels, prompted inclusion of 40 percent probability of critical fire weather conditions for Day 4/Tuesday. Monsoon moisture will simultaneously be surging northwestward into the Intermountain West early next week. The initial push of elevated moisture along with daytime heating will promote dry thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of central and southwestern Utah on Day 4/Tuesday. The thunderstorm threat extends into Day 5/Wednesday across much of the Intermountain West, but some uncertainty exists in expected magnitude of monsoon moisture which could enhance precipitation amounts, roughly east of the Nevada/Utah border. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Friday... The upper-level ridge axis shifts eastward into the Great Plains and Midwest by the end of the week with a potential negatively tilted mid-level trough moving into the West Coast. The attendant mid-level jet maxima will present a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Great Basin Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday where minimal rainfall from monsoon moisture is expected. 40 percent probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were added to portions of southern Nevada, western Utah and northwestern Arizona. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1494 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW YORK...FAR WESTERN NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Ohio into southern...central...and eastern Pennsylvania...Northern Maryland...southern New York...far western New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471... Valid 282040Z - 282215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471 continues. SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may still occur with the stronger cells or line segments over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters have aggregated into a linear complex across eastern OH into PA, while an MCS continues to decay while tracking eastward into eastern PA. The warm sector preceding these storms continues to destabilize. However, given residual static stability, it seems that an appreciable uptick in intensity with any ongoing storms is less likely, and that storms may have peaked in intensity over most locales. The one exception may be across southeastern PA, where a local increase in storm intensity was noted with cells encountering surface temperatures near 90 F. Nonetheless, while a few more strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out over the next few hours, the current thinking is that a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may not be needed unless an appreciable upward trend in storm intensity is somehow realized. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39968153 40417983 40997694 41327644 41817618 42367578 42467560 42327533 41817487 41097482 40327512 39727593 39487665 39467988 39488004 39508069 39638146 39968153 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1493 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN SD...FAR NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1493 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...western SD...far northeast WY/southeast MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281947Z - 282145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany initial storms along the north side of the Black Hills. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Initial Cb development is underway near the MT/WY/SD border area, within an upslope flow, post-frontal regime along the northern portion of the Black Hills. This orographic ascent will be necessary to sustain storms amid greater MLCIN farther southeast per the 18Z UNR sounding. With moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies atop the low-level northerlies, effective bulk shear will be sufficient for supercell structures. With a ribbon of low 60s surface dew points from far northeast WY across northwest SD, moderate MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg should be maintained. Large hail should be the main hazard. Overall convective coverage may remain isolated and largely tied to the terrain through late afternoon. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 45890260 45460259 44410278 44030353 44390421 44340520 44420533 44770534 45170507 45820396 45890260 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more