Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

MD 1489 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...portions of extreme northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and western Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281759Z - 281930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong/damaging wind gusts may accompany the stronger pulse-cellular storms over the next several hours. However, the overall severe threat should be isolated, and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular storms have initiated along and to the lee of the central Appalachians due to strong diurnal heating and orographic lift. Surface temperatures are already in the mid 80s F, that with low 70s F dewpoints, are contributing to over 3000 J/kg SBCAPE amid negligible convective inhibition. However, tropospheric flow and deep-layer shear are very weak, and given poor mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned SBCAPE is constrained to tall/thin profiles. As such, the main threat this afternoon is for brief and localized, strong/damaging gusts with the heavier storm cores. Therefore, the sparse nature of the severe threat should preclude a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 35118326 36308179 36818107 37728010 38227964 38367940 38297903 38137878 37507856 36707872 36087909 35677945 35338044 35048148 34918199 34778256 35118326 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LBE TO 30 SSE DUJ TO 30 NNW UNV TO 35 ESE BFD TO 50 NE BFD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491 ..SQUITIERI..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-011-015-017-023-053-065-067-097-099-101-107-109-123- 281940- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS YATES PAC005-009-013-015-021-027-035-037-041-043-055-057-061-063-067- 069-079-081-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-127- 129-131-281940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BEDFORD BLAIR BRADFORD CAMBRIA CENTRE CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND Read more