Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/28/2025 Read more

MD 1488 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PA AND SOUTHERN NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1488 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...PA and southern NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281451Z - 281645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered strong gusts will be possible into this afternoon as scattered thunderstorms spread east across Pennsylvania and a portion of southern New York. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Isolated deep convection is ongoing attendant to a minor MCV moving east from far eastern OH. With convective temperatures being breached across southwest NY into western PA, storm coverage should increase over the next couple hours as an attendant outflow ahead of the MCV shifts east. Moderate lower to mid-level westerlies should largely be confined from the NY/PA border area northward per the 12Z BUF/PIT observed soundings and recent VWPs. Greater coverage of storms is anticipated south of this across PA where shear will be weaker with southern extent. Still, enough flow will exist for multicell clusters that have a higher probability of being loosely organized along the southern NY/northern PA border vicinity. Strong gusts from 45-60 mph producing isolated to scattered tree damage and small hail are the expected hazards. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 41108040 41647943 42427680 42407517 41557503 40367562 39997616 39887817 40088003 40328036 41108040 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-009-011-015-017-023-053-065-067-097-099-101-107-109- 123-281740- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS YATES PAC005-009-013-015-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-041-043-047-053- 055-057-061-063-065-067-069-079-081-083-087-093-097-099-105-107- 109-111-113-115-117-119-127-129-131-281740- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BEDFORD BLAIR BRADFORD CAMBRIA CAMERON CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN ELK FOREST Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-009-011-015-017-023-053-065-067-097-099-101-107-109- 123-281740- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS YATES PAC005-009-013-015-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-041-043-047-053- 055-057-061-063-065-067-069-079-081-083-087-093-097-099-105-107- 109-111-113-115-117-119-127-129-131-281740- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BEDFORD BLAIR BRADFORD CAMBRIA CAMERON CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN ELK FOREST Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0471 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 28 14:53:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota... Broad weak troughing per morning water-vapor imagery over the northern Rockies/High Plains will gradually shift eastward and become centered over MB/SK and the Dakotas by the end of the period. A somewhat ill-defined boundary this morning will become draped from parts of the upper MS Valley west-southwestward into the Black Hills later this afternoon/evening. Residual clusters of showers/weak thunderstorms this morning will likely dissipate by mid-late morning over the Upper Midwest. The resultant convective outflow will probably prove instrumental in renewed thunderstorm activity later this afternoon where differential heating/convergence will become focused. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along the front/composite outflow by late afternoon when buoyancy will be maximized. Forecast soundings show 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE developing from eastern SD into MN/western WI. It appears sufficient hodograph curvature and effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will support a supercell mode, at least initially. All severe hazards will be possible. Gradual upscale growth into a cluster may occur during the evening --supported by a persistent southwesterly LLJ-- with the risk gradually favoring more of a wind threat. Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind will be the primary concerns. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley... Morning satellite imagery indicates a weak mid-level trough near Georgian Bay/southern ON. This feature is forecast to move eastward to the VT/NH/QC vicinity by early evening and glance NY/PA. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, the southern extent of the disturbance's influence will aid in storm development within the northeast extent of richer moisture extending from the upper OH Valley into the PA/southern NY area. Initial extensive low cloud cover will gradually abate as diurnal heating aids in moderate destabilization by midday from southern NY southwestward into the upper OH Valley. Bands of smaller storm clusters preferentially developing on the front/wind shift will predominately be multicellular, and pose a wind-damage risk across parts of PA during the afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger low to mid-level flow over NY may favor a mix of strong to severe multicells and perhaps transient, weak supercell structure. Farther south, slow-moving isolated to scattered pulse-like storms will yield an isolated risk for 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota... Broad weak troughing per morning water-vapor imagery over the northern Rockies/High Plains will gradually shift eastward and become centered over MB/SK and the Dakotas by the end of the period. A somewhat ill-defined boundary this morning will become draped from parts of the upper MS Valley west-southwestward into the Black Hills later this afternoon/evening. Residual clusters of showers/weak thunderstorms this morning will likely dissipate by mid-late morning over the Upper Midwest. The resultant convective outflow will probably prove instrumental in renewed thunderstorm activity later this afternoon where differential heating/convergence will become focused. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along the front/composite outflow by late afternoon when buoyancy will be maximized. Forecast soundings show 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE developing from eastern SD into MN/western WI. It appears sufficient hodograph curvature and effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will support a supercell mode, at least initially. All severe hazards will be possible. Gradual upscale growth into a cluster may occur during the evening --supported by a persistent southwesterly LLJ-- with the risk gradually favoring more of a wind threat. Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind will be the primary concerns. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley... Morning satellite imagery indicates a weak mid-level trough near Georgian Bay/southern ON. This feature is forecast to move eastward to the VT/NH/QC vicinity by early evening and glance NY/PA. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, the southern extent of the disturbance's influence will aid in storm development within the northeast extent of richer moisture extending from the upper OH Valley into the PA/southern NY area. Initial extensive low cloud cover will gradually abate as diurnal heating aids in moderate destabilization by midday from southern NY southwestward into the upper OH Valley. Bands of smaller storm clusters preferentially developing on the front/wind shift will predominately be multicellular, and pose a wind-damage risk across parts of PA during the afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger low to mid-level flow over NY may favor a mix of strong to severe multicells and perhaps transient, weak supercell structure. Farther south, slow-moving isolated to scattered pulse-like storms will yield an isolated risk for 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota... Broad weak troughing per morning water-vapor imagery over the northern Rockies/High Plains will gradually shift eastward and become centered over MB/SK and the Dakotas by the end of the period. A somewhat ill-defined boundary this morning will become draped from parts of the upper MS Valley west-southwestward into the Black Hills later this afternoon/evening. Residual clusters of showers/weak thunderstorms this morning will likely dissipate by mid-late morning over the Upper Midwest. The resultant convective outflow will probably prove instrumental in renewed thunderstorm activity later this afternoon where differential heating/convergence will become focused. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along the front/composite outflow by late afternoon when buoyancy will be maximized. Forecast soundings show 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE developing from eastern SD into MN/western WI. It appears sufficient hodograph curvature and effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will support a supercell mode, at least initially. All severe hazards will be possible. Gradual upscale growth into a cluster may occur during the evening --supported by a persistent southwesterly LLJ-- with the risk gradually favoring more of a wind threat. Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind will be the primary concerns. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley... Morning satellite imagery indicates a weak mid-level trough near Georgian Bay/southern ON. This feature is forecast to move eastward to the VT/NH/QC vicinity by early evening and glance NY/PA. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, the southern extent of the disturbance's influence will aid in storm development within the northeast extent of richer moisture extending from the upper OH Valley into the PA/southern NY area. Initial extensive low cloud cover will gradually abate as diurnal heating aids in moderate destabilization by midday from southern NY southwestward into the upper OH Valley. Bands of smaller storm clusters preferentially developing on the front/wind shift will predominately be multicellular, and pose a wind-damage risk across parts of PA during the afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger low to mid-level flow over NY may favor a mix of strong to severe multicells and perhaps transient, weak supercell structure. Farther south, slow-moving isolated to scattered pulse-like storms will yield an isolated risk for 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota... Broad weak troughing per morning water-vapor imagery over the northern Rockies/High Plains will gradually shift eastward and become centered over MB/SK and the Dakotas by the end of the period. A somewhat ill-defined boundary this morning will become draped from parts of the upper MS Valley west-southwestward into the Black Hills later this afternoon/evening. Residual clusters of showers/weak thunderstorms this morning will likely dissipate by mid-late morning over the Upper Midwest. The resultant convective outflow will probably prove instrumental in renewed thunderstorm activity later this afternoon where differential heating/convergence will become focused. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along the front/composite outflow by late afternoon when buoyancy will be maximized. Forecast soundings show 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE developing from eastern SD into MN/western WI. It appears sufficient hodograph curvature and effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will support a supercell mode, at least initially. All severe hazards will be possible. Gradual upscale growth into a cluster may occur during the evening --supported by a persistent southwesterly LLJ-- with the risk gradually favoring more of a wind threat. Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind will be the primary concerns. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley... Morning satellite imagery indicates a weak mid-level trough near Georgian Bay/southern ON. This feature is forecast to move eastward to the VT/NH/QC vicinity by early evening and glance NY/PA. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, the southern extent of the disturbance's influence will aid in storm development within the northeast extent of richer moisture extending from the upper OH Valley into the PA/southern NY area. Initial extensive low cloud cover will gradually abate as diurnal heating aids in moderate destabilization by midday from southern NY southwestward into the upper OH Valley. Bands of smaller storm clusters preferentially developing on the front/wind shift will predominately be multicellular, and pose a wind-damage risk across parts of PA during the afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger low to mid-level flow over NY may favor a mix of strong to severe multicells and perhaps transient, weak supercell structure. Farther south, slow-moving isolated to scattered pulse-like storms will yield an isolated risk for 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota... Broad weak troughing per morning water-vapor imagery over the northern Rockies/High Plains will gradually shift eastward and become centered over MB/SK and the Dakotas by the end of the period. A somewhat ill-defined boundary this morning will become draped from parts of the upper MS Valley west-southwestward into the Black Hills later this afternoon/evening. Residual clusters of showers/weak thunderstorms this morning will likely dissipate by mid-late morning over the Upper Midwest. The resultant convective outflow will probably prove instrumental in renewed thunderstorm activity later this afternoon where differential heating/convergence will become focused. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along the front/composite outflow by late afternoon when buoyancy will be maximized. Forecast soundings show 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE developing from eastern SD into MN/western WI. It appears sufficient hodograph curvature and effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will support a supercell mode, at least initially. All severe hazards will be possible. Gradual upscale growth into a cluster may occur during the evening --supported by a persistent southwesterly LLJ-- with the risk gradually favoring more of a wind threat. Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind will be the primary concerns. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley... Morning satellite imagery indicates a weak mid-level trough near Georgian Bay/southern ON. This feature is forecast to move eastward to the VT/NH/QC vicinity by early evening and glance NY/PA. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, the southern extent of the disturbance's influence will aid in storm development within the northeast extent of richer moisture extending from the upper OH Valley into the PA/southern NY area. Initial extensive low cloud cover will gradually abate as diurnal heating aids in moderate destabilization by midday from southern NY southwestward into the upper OH Valley. Bands of smaller storm clusters preferentially developing on the front/wind shift will predominately be multicellular, and pose a wind-damage risk across parts of PA during the afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger low to mid-level flow over NY may favor a mix of strong to severe multicells and perhaps transient, weak supercell structure. Farther south, slow-moving isolated to scattered pulse-like storms will yield an isolated risk for 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota... Broad weak troughing per morning water-vapor imagery over the northern Rockies/High Plains will gradually shift eastward and become centered over MB/SK and the Dakotas by the end of the period. A somewhat ill-defined boundary this morning will become draped from parts of the upper MS Valley west-southwestward into the Black Hills later this afternoon/evening. Residual clusters of showers/weak thunderstorms this morning will likely dissipate by mid-late morning over the Upper Midwest. The resultant convective outflow will probably prove instrumental in renewed thunderstorm activity later this afternoon where differential heating/convergence will become focused. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along the front/composite outflow by late afternoon when buoyancy will be maximized. Forecast soundings show 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE developing from eastern SD into MN/western WI. It appears sufficient hodograph curvature and effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will support a supercell mode, at least initially. All severe hazards will be possible. Gradual upscale growth into a cluster may occur during the evening --supported by a persistent southwesterly LLJ-- with the risk gradually favoring more of a wind threat. Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind will be the primary concerns. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley... Morning satellite imagery indicates a weak mid-level trough near Georgian Bay/southern ON. This feature is forecast to move eastward to the VT/NH/QC vicinity by early evening and glance NY/PA. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, the southern extent of the disturbance's influence will aid in storm development within the northeast extent of richer moisture extending from the upper OH Valley into the PA/southern NY area. Initial extensive low cloud cover will gradually abate as diurnal heating aids in moderate destabilization by midday from southern NY southwestward into the upper OH Valley. Bands of smaller storm clusters preferentially developing on the front/wind shift will predominately be multicellular, and pose a wind-damage risk across parts of PA during the afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger low to mid-level flow over NY may favor a mix of strong to severe multicells and perhaps transient, weak supercell structure. Farther south, slow-moving isolated to scattered pulse-like storms will yield an isolated risk for 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS...AND PARTS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota... Broad weak troughing per morning water-vapor imagery over the northern Rockies/High Plains will gradually shift eastward and become centered over MB/SK and the Dakotas by the end of the period. A somewhat ill-defined boundary this morning will become draped from parts of the upper MS Valley west-southwestward into the Black Hills later this afternoon/evening. Residual clusters of showers/weak thunderstorms this morning will likely dissipate by mid-late morning over the Upper Midwest. The resultant convective outflow will probably prove instrumental in renewed thunderstorm activity later this afternoon where differential heating/convergence will become focused. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along the front/composite outflow by late afternoon when buoyancy will be maximized. Forecast soundings show 3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE developing from eastern SD into MN/western WI. It appears sufficient hodograph curvature and effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt will support a supercell mode, at least initially. All severe hazards will be possible. Gradual upscale growth into a cluster may occur during the evening --supported by a persistent southwesterly LLJ-- with the risk gradually favoring more of a wind threat. Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind will be the primary concerns. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley... Morning satellite imagery indicates a weak mid-level trough near Georgian Bay/southern ON. This feature is forecast to move eastward to the VT/NH/QC vicinity by early evening and glance NY/PA. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, the southern extent of the disturbance's influence will aid in storm development within the northeast extent of richer moisture extending from the upper OH Valley into the PA/southern NY area. Initial extensive low cloud cover will gradually abate as diurnal heating aids in moderate destabilization by midday from southern NY southwestward into the upper OH Valley. Bands of smaller storm clusters preferentially developing on the front/wind shift will predominately be multicellular, and pose a wind-damage risk across parts of PA during the afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger low to mid-level flow over NY may favor a mix of strong to severe multicells and perhaps transient, weak supercell structure. Farther south, slow-moving isolated to scattered pulse-like storms will yield an isolated risk for 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/28/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Day 4/Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move east through the period. Moderate instability is expected along this front and some severe weather may be possible from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Slight risk (15%) probabilities may eventually be needed within this zone, but there is potential for cloudcover/thunderstorm activity from Monday evening to impact destabilization. Therefore, confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4, a relative lull in severe weather potential is expected. Multiple reinforcing mid-level troughs will amplify the larger-scale trough across the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, the surface cold front will move south, potentially to the Gulf Coast and into the western Atlantic. This will eliminate the very moist airmass which resulted in moderate to strong instability across much of the eastern CONUS for the past few weeks. The greater low-level moisture is expected to remain and perhaps advect north across the central Plains beneath a large-scale ridge. This could result in some thunderstorm activity, but shear is expected to be very weak, and the building ridge aloft may suppress convection on D5/Wednesday to D6/Thursday. By next weekend, this ridge is expected to flatten with some stronger mid-level flow moving across the northern Plains. The exact evolution of the upper-pattern remains uncertain and therefore, confidence is low, but severe weather chances may increase across the northern Plains by next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Day 4/Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move east through the period. Moderate instability is expected along this front and some severe weather may be possible from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Slight risk (15%) probabilities may eventually be needed within this zone, but there is potential for cloudcover/thunderstorm activity from Monday evening to impact destabilization. Therefore, confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4, a relative lull in severe weather potential is expected. Multiple reinforcing mid-level troughs will amplify the larger-scale trough across the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, the surface cold front will move south, potentially to the Gulf Coast and into the western Atlantic. This will eliminate the very moist airmass which resulted in moderate to strong instability across much of the eastern CONUS for the past few weeks. The greater low-level moisture is expected to remain and perhaps advect north across the central Plains beneath a large-scale ridge. This could result in some thunderstorm activity, but shear is expected to be very weak, and the building ridge aloft may suppress convection on D5/Wednesday to D6/Thursday. By next weekend, this ridge is expected to flatten with some stronger mid-level flow moving across the northern Plains. The exact evolution of the upper-pattern remains uncertain and therefore, confidence is low, but severe weather chances may increase across the northern Plains by next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Day 4/Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move east through the period. Moderate instability is expected along this front and some severe weather may be possible from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Slight risk (15%) probabilities may eventually be needed within this zone, but there is potential for cloudcover/thunderstorm activity from Monday evening to impact destabilization. Therefore, confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4, a relative lull in severe weather potential is expected. Multiple reinforcing mid-level troughs will amplify the larger-scale trough across the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, the surface cold front will move south, potentially to the Gulf Coast and into the western Atlantic. This will eliminate the very moist airmass which resulted in moderate to strong instability across much of the eastern CONUS for the past few weeks. The greater low-level moisture is expected to remain and perhaps advect north across the central Plains beneath a large-scale ridge. This could result in some thunderstorm activity, but shear is expected to be very weak, and the building ridge aloft may suppress convection on D5/Wednesday to D6/Thursday. By next weekend, this ridge is expected to flatten with some stronger mid-level flow moving across the northern Plains. The exact evolution of the upper-pattern remains uncertain and therefore, confidence is low, but severe weather chances may increase across the northern Plains by next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Day 4/Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move east through the period. Moderate instability is expected along this front and some severe weather may be possible from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Slight risk (15%) probabilities may eventually be needed within this zone, but there is potential for cloudcover/thunderstorm activity from Monday evening to impact destabilization. Therefore, confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4, a relative lull in severe weather potential is expected. Multiple reinforcing mid-level troughs will amplify the larger-scale trough across the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, the surface cold front will move south, potentially to the Gulf Coast and into the western Atlantic. This will eliminate the very moist airmass which resulted in moderate to strong instability across much of the eastern CONUS for the past few weeks. The greater low-level moisture is expected to remain and perhaps advect north across the central Plains beneath a large-scale ridge. This could result in some thunderstorm activity, but shear is expected to be very weak, and the building ridge aloft may suppress convection on D5/Wednesday to D6/Thursday. By next weekend, this ridge is expected to flatten with some stronger mid-level flow moving across the northern Plains. The exact evolution of the upper-pattern remains uncertain and therefore, confidence is low, but severe weather chances may increase across the northern Plains by next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Day 4/Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move east through the period. Moderate instability is expected along this front and some severe weather may be possible from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Slight risk (15%) probabilities may eventually be needed within this zone, but there is potential for cloudcover/thunderstorm activity from Monday evening to impact destabilization. Therefore, confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4, a relative lull in severe weather potential is expected. Multiple reinforcing mid-level troughs will amplify the larger-scale trough across the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, the surface cold front will move south, potentially to the Gulf Coast and into the western Atlantic. This will eliminate the very moist airmass which resulted in moderate to strong instability across much of the eastern CONUS for the past few weeks. The greater low-level moisture is expected to remain and perhaps advect north across the central Plains beneath a large-scale ridge. This could result in some thunderstorm activity, but shear is expected to be very weak, and the building ridge aloft may suppress convection on D5/Wednesday to D6/Thursday. By next weekend, this ridge is expected to flatten with some stronger mid-level flow moving across the northern Plains. The exact evolution of the upper-pattern remains uncertain and therefore, confidence is low, but severe weather chances may increase across the northern Plains by next weekend. Read more