Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley through the afternoon. ...Ohio Valley and Midwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30 kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger cells. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric moisture (PW around 2 inches). ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

MD 1489 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...portions of extreme northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and western Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281759Z - 281930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong/damaging wind gusts may accompany the stronger pulse-cellular storms over the next several hours. However, the overall severe threat should be isolated, and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular storms have initiated along and to the lee of the central Appalachians due to strong diurnal heating and orographic lift. Surface temperatures are already in the mid 80s F, that with low 70s F dewpoints, are contributing to over 3000 J/kg SBCAPE amid negligible convective inhibition. However, tropospheric flow and deep-layer shear are very weak, and given poor mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned SBCAPE is constrained to tall/thin profiles. As such, the main threat this afternoon is for brief and localized, strong/damaging gusts with the heavier storm cores. Therefore, the sparse nature of the severe threat should preclude a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 35118326 36308179 36818107 37728010 38227964 38367940 38297903 38137878 37507856 36707872 36087909 35677945 35338044 35048148 34918199 34778256 35118326 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LBE TO 30 SSE DUJ TO 30 NNW UNV TO 35 ESE BFD TO 50 NE BFD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491 ..SQUITIERI..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-011-015-017-023-053-065-067-097-099-101-107-109-123- 281940- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS YATES PAC005-009-013-015-021-027-035-037-041-043-055-057-061-063-067- 069-079-081-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-127- 129-131-281940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BEDFORD BLAIR BRADFORD CAMBRIA CENTRE CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LBE TO 30 SSE DUJ TO 30 NNW UNV TO 35 ESE BFD TO 50 NE BFD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491 ..SQUITIERI..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-011-015-017-023-053-065-067-097-099-101-107-109-123- 281940- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS YATES PAC005-009-013-015-021-027-035-037-041-043-055-057-061-063-067- 069-079-081-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-127- 129-131-281940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BEDFORD BLAIR BRADFORD CAMBRIA CENTRE CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LBE TO 30 SSE DUJ TO 30 NNW UNV TO 35 ESE BFD TO 50 NE BFD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491 ..SQUITIERI..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-011-015-017-023-053-065-067-097-099-101-107-109-123- 281940- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS YATES PAC005-009-013-015-021-027-035-037-041-043-055-057-061-063-067- 069-079-081-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-127- 129-131-281940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BEDFORD BLAIR BRADFORD CAMBRIA CENTRE CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LBE TO 30 SSE DUJ TO 30 NNW UNV TO 35 ESE BFD TO 50 NE BFD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491 ..SQUITIERI..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-011-015-017-023-053-065-067-097-099-101-107-109-123- 281940- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS YATES PAC005-009-013-015-021-027-035-037-041-043-055-057-061-063-067- 069-079-081-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-127- 129-131-281940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BEDFORD BLAIR BRADFORD CAMBRIA CENTRE CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LBE TO 30 SSE DUJ TO 30 NNW UNV TO 35 ESE BFD TO 50 NE BFD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491 ..SQUITIERI..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-011-015-017-023-053-065-067-097-099-101-107-109-123- 281940- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS YATES PAC005-009-013-015-021-027-035-037-041-043-055-057-061-063-067- 069-079-081-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-127- 129-131-281940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BEDFORD BLAIR BRADFORD CAMBRIA CENTRE CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Sunday from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the north-central Plains toward the Upper MS Valley through the period. Related large-scale ascent will overspread the Middle/Upper MS Valley, while a related cold front moves southeastward across the region. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of several overnight storm clusters and related cloud debris, gradual clearing should support boundary-layer destabilization and the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. As the cold front intercepts this increasing buoyancy, around 30 kt of deep-layer shear should favor a few organized clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ...Central Plains to the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley... A separate area of thunderstorms is expected along the front in IA and the Lower MO Valley during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of these evolving storms, lower/middle 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. Initial storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts. However, strengthening deep-layer shear accompanying the digging midlevel trough, coupled with an increasing low-level jet, will support the development of a southward-moving MCS into the overnight hours. The Slight risk was expanded southward to account for this scenario, and higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as the scenario becomes more clear. Farther west, semi-discrete storms are expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon. Elongated/straight hodographs and moderate surface-based buoyancy should favor large hail with any supercell structures that can develop. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite marginal deep-layer flow/shear, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture (around 2 inch PW) will favor wet microbursts and the potential for wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Sunday from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the north-central Plains toward the Upper MS Valley through the period. Related large-scale ascent will overspread the Middle/Upper MS Valley, while a related cold front moves southeastward across the region. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of several overnight storm clusters and related cloud debris, gradual clearing should support boundary-layer destabilization and the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. As the cold front intercepts this increasing buoyancy, around 30 kt of deep-layer shear should favor a few organized clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ...Central Plains to the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley... A separate area of thunderstorms is expected along the front in IA and the Lower MO Valley during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of these evolving storms, lower/middle 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. Initial storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts. However, strengthening deep-layer shear accompanying the digging midlevel trough, coupled with an increasing low-level jet, will support the development of a southward-moving MCS into the overnight hours. The Slight risk was expanded southward to account for this scenario, and higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as the scenario becomes more clear. Farther west, semi-discrete storms are expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon. Elongated/straight hodographs and moderate surface-based buoyancy should favor large hail with any supercell structures that can develop. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite marginal deep-layer flow/shear, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture (around 2 inch PW) will favor wet microbursts and the potential for wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Sunday from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the north-central Plains toward the Upper MS Valley through the period. Related large-scale ascent will overspread the Middle/Upper MS Valley, while a related cold front moves southeastward across the region. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of several overnight storm clusters and related cloud debris, gradual clearing should support boundary-layer destabilization and the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. As the cold front intercepts this increasing buoyancy, around 30 kt of deep-layer shear should favor a few organized clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ...Central Plains to the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley... A separate area of thunderstorms is expected along the front in IA and the Lower MO Valley during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of these evolving storms, lower/middle 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. Initial storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts. However, strengthening deep-layer shear accompanying the digging midlevel trough, coupled with an increasing low-level jet, will support the development of a southward-moving MCS into the overnight hours. The Slight risk was expanded southward to account for this scenario, and higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as the scenario becomes more clear. Farther west, semi-discrete storms are expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon. Elongated/straight hodographs and moderate surface-based buoyancy should favor large hail with any supercell structures that can develop. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite marginal deep-layer flow/shear, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture (around 2 inch PW) will favor wet microbursts and the potential for wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Sunday from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the north-central Plains toward the Upper MS Valley through the period. Related large-scale ascent will overspread the Middle/Upper MS Valley, while a related cold front moves southeastward across the region. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of several overnight storm clusters and related cloud debris, gradual clearing should support boundary-layer destabilization and the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. As the cold front intercepts this increasing buoyancy, around 30 kt of deep-layer shear should favor a few organized clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ...Central Plains to the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley... A separate area of thunderstorms is expected along the front in IA and the Lower MO Valley during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of these evolving storms, lower/middle 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. Initial storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts. However, strengthening deep-layer shear accompanying the digging midlevel trough, coupled with an increasing low-level jet, will support the development of a southward-moving MCS into the overnight hours. The Slight risk was expanded southward to account for this scenario, and higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as the scenario becomes more clear. Farther west, semi-discrete storms are expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon. Elongated/straight hodographs and moderate surface-based buoyancy should favor large hail with any supercell structures that can develop. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite marginal deep-layer flow/shear, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture (around 2 inch PW) will favor wet microbursts and the potential for wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Sunday from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the north-central Plains toward the Upper MS Valley through the period. Related large-scale ascent will overspread the Middle/Upper MS Valley, while a related cold front moves southeastward across the region. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of several overnight storm clusters and related cloud debris, gradual clearing should support boundary-layer destabilization and the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. As the cold front intercepts this increasing buoyancy, around 30 kt of deep-layer shear should favor a few organized clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ...Central Plains to the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley... A separate area of thunderstorms is expected along the front in IA and the Lower MO Valley during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of these evolving storms, lower/middle 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. Initial storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts. However, strengthening deep-layer shear accompanying the digging midlevel trough, coupled with an increasing low-level jet, will support the development of a southward-moving MCS into the overnight hours. The Slight risk was expanded southward to account for this scenario, and higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as the scenario becomes more clear. Farther west, semi-discrete storms are expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon. Elongated/straight hodographs and moderate surface-based buoyancy should favor large hail with any supercell structures that can develop. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite marginal deep-layer flow/shear, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture (around 2 inch PW) will favor wet microbursts and the potential for wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Sunday from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the north-central Plains toward the Upper MS Valley through the period. Related large-scale ascent will overspread the Middle/Upper MS Valley, while a related cold front moves southeastward across the region. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of several overnight storm clusters and related cloud debris, gradual clearing should support boundary-layer destabilization and the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. As the cold front intercepts this increasing buoyancy, around 30 kt of deep-layer shear should favor a few organized clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ...Central Plains to the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley... A separate area of thunderstorms is expected along the front in IA and the Lower MO Valley during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of these evolving storms, lower/middle 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. Initial storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts. However, strengthening deep-layer shear accompanying the digging midlevel trough, coupled with an increasing low-level jet, will support the development of a southward-moving MCS into the overnight hours. The Slight risk was expanded southward to account for this scenario, and higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as the scenario becomes more clear. Farther west, semi-discrete storms are expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon. Elongated/straight hodographs and moderate surface-based buoyancy should favor large hail with any supercell structures that can develop. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite marginal deep-layer flow/shear, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture (around 2 inch PW) will favor wet microbursts and the potential for wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Sunday from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the north-central Plains toward the Upper MS Valley through the period. Related large-scale ascent will overspread the Middle/Upper MS Valley, while a related cold front moves southeastward across the region. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of several overnight storm clusters and related cloud debris, gradual clearing should support boundary-layer destabilization and the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. As the cold front intercepts this increasing buoyancy, around 30 kt of deep-layer shear should favor a few organized clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ...Central Plains to the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley... A separate area of thunderstorms is expected along the front in IA and the Lower MO Valley during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of these evolving storms, lower/middle 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. Initial storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts. However, strengthening deep-layer shear accompanying the digging midlevel trough, coupled with an increasing low-level jet, will support the development of a southward-moving MCS into the overnight hours. The Slight risk was expanded southward to account for this scenario, and higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as the scenario becomes more clear. Farther west, semi-discrete storms are expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon. Elongated/straight hodographs and moderate surface-based buoyancy should favor large hail with any supercell structures that can develop. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite marginal deep-layer flow/shear, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture (around 2 inch PW) will favor wet microbursts and the potential for wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Sunday from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the north-central Plains toward the Upper MS Valley through the period. Related large-scale ascent will overspread the Middle/Upper MS Valley, while a related cold front moves southeastward across the region. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of several overnight storm clusters and related cloud debris, gradual clearing should support boundary-layer destabilization and the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. As the cold front intercepts this increasing buoyancy, around 30 kt of deep-layer shear should favor a few organized clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ...Central Plains to the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley... A separate area of thunderstorms is expected along the front in IA and the Lower MO Valley during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of these evolving storms, lower/middle 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. Initial storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts. However, strengthening deep-layer shear accompanying the digging midlevel trough, coupled with an increasing low-level jet, will support the development of a southward-moving MCS into the overnight hours. The Slight risk was expanded southward to account for this scenario, and higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as the scenario becomes more clear. Farther west, semi-discrete storms are expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon. Elongated/straight hodographs and moderate surface-based buoyancy should favor large hail with any supercell structures that can develop. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite marginal deep-layer flow/shear, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture (around 2 inch PW) will favor wet microbursts and the potential for wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Sunday from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the north-central Plains toward the Upper MS Valley through the period. Related large-scale ascent will overspread the Middle/Upper MS Valley, while a related cold front moves southeastward across the region. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of several overnight storm clusters and related cloud debris, gradual clearing should support boundary-layer destabilization and the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. As the cold front intercepts this increasing buoyancy, around 30 kt of deep-layer shear should favor a few organized clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ...Central Plains to the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley... A separate area of thunderstorms is expected along the front in IA and the Lower MO Valley during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of these evolving storms, lower/middle 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. Initial storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts. However, strengthening deep-layer shear accompanying the digging midlevel trough, coupled with an increasing low-level jet, will support the development of a southward-moving MCS into the overnight hours. The Slight risk was expanded southward to account for this scenario, and higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as the scenario becomes more clear. Farther west, semi-discrete storms are expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon. Elongated/straight hodographs and moderate surface-based buoyancy should favor large hail with any supercell structures that can develop. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite marginal deep-layer flow/shear, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture (around 2 inch PW) will favor wet microbursts and the potential for wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Sunday from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the north-central Plains toward the Upper MS Valley through the period. Related large-scale ascent will overspread the Middle/Upper MS Valley, while a related cold front moves southeastward across the region. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of several overnight storm clusters and related cloud debris, gradual clearing should support boundary-layer destabilization and the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. As the cold front intercepts this increasing buoyancy, around 30 kt of deep-layer shear should favor a few organized clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ...Central Plains to the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley... A separate area of thunderstorms is expected along the front in IA and the Lower MO Valley during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of these evolving storms, lower/middle 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. Initial storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts. However, strengthening deep-layer shear accompanying the digging midlevel trough, coupled with an increasing low-level jet, will support the development of a southward-moving MCS into the overnight hours. The Slight risk was expanded southward to account for this scenario, and higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as the scenario becomes more clear. Farther west, semi-discrete storms are expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon. Elongated/straight hodographs and moderate surface-based buoyancy should favor large hail with any supercell structures that can develop. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite marginal deep-layer flow/shear, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture (around 2 inch PW) will favor wet microbursts and the potential for wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Sunday from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the north-central Plains toward the Upper MS Valley through the period. Related large-scale ascent will overspread the Middle/Upper MS Valley, while a related cold front moves southeastward across the region. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of several overnight storm clusters and related cloud debris, gradual clearing should support boundary-layer destabilization and the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. As the cold front intercepts this increasing buoyancy, around 30 kt of deep-layer shear should favor a few organized clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ...Central Plains to the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley... A separate area of thunderstorms is expected along the front in IA and the Lower MO Valley during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of these evolving storms, lower/middle 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. Initial storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts. However, strengthening deep-layer shear accompanying the digging midlevel trough, coupled with an increasing low-level jet, will support the development of a southward-moving MCS into the overnight hours. The Slight risk was expanded southward to account for this scenario, and higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as the scenario becomes more clear. Farther west, semi-discrete storms are expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon. Elongated/straight hodographs and moderate surface-based buoyancy should favor large hail with any supercell structures that can develop. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite marginal deep-layer flow/shear, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture (around 2 inch PW) will favor wet microbursts and the potential for wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Sunday from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An amplifying midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the north-central Plains toward the Upper MS Valley through the period. Related large-scale ascent will overspread the Middle/Upper MS Valley, while a related cold front moves southeastward across the region. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of several overnight storm clusters and related cloud debris, gradual clearing should support boundary-layer destabilization and the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. As the cold front intercepts this increasing buoyancy, around 30 kt of deep-layer shear should favor a few organized clusters capable of producing widely scattered damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ...Central Plains to the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley... A separate area of thunderstorms is expected along the front in IA and the Lower MO Valley during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of these evolving storms, lower/middle 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. Initial storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts. However, strengthening deep-layer shear accompanying the digging midlevel trough, coupled with an increasing low-level jet, will support the development of a southward-moving MCS into the overnight hours. The Slight risk was expanded southward to account for this scenario, and higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as the scenario becomes more clear. Farther west, semi-discrete storms are expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon. Elongated/straight hodographs and moderate surface-based buoyancy should favor large hail with any supercell structures that can develop. ...Mid-Atlantic... Despite marginal deep-layer flow/shear, diurnal heating amid deep tropospheric moisture (around 2 inch PW) will favor wet microbursts and the potential for wind damage with the stronger thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 06/28/2025 Read more