Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest into the north-central Great Plains. All severe hazards are possible centered on southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Scattered damaging gusts are possible across parts of New York into Pennsylvania. ...20Z Update... The main change with this update is to expand the hail threat farther north and west into portions of east-central North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Here, strong instability and developing/ongoing thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail. See MCD #1492 for additional meteorological discussion. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Eastern SD/MN/WI... Current radar loops show a persistent MCS slowly weakening across southern MN. This feature has driven an associated outflow boundary into northwest IA and eastern SD. Morning model solutions are in general agreement that the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of the MCS, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon over western MN. It is unclear if the models are handling the lingering effects of the morning convection, but the eventual re-development of storms poses risks of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk over parts of central/southern MN for this evening was considered, but will defer to the 20z outlook, after further evaluation of the ongoing convection and trends in destabilization. ...Western SD Vicinity... Full sun will lead to strong heating and deep mixing across much of eastern WY today. High-based convection will develop by late afternoon in this region and spread eastward into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass over western SD. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist through the evening and grow upscale, with a risk of damaging winds into southern SD/northern NE. ...NY/PA/Mid-Atlantic... A surface cold front is sagging southward into NY and western PA today. Thunderstorms have begun to intensify along/ahead of the front, with locally damaging wind gusts expected through the afternoon. Low clouds are limiting heating/destabilization over eastern NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, heating should commence by mid/late afternoon, allowing storms approaching from the west to maintain a damaging wind threat into the early evening. Read more

MD 1492 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...eastern ND and far northwest MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281851Z - 282015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally strong gusts may initially develop along a cold front in eastern North Dakota, and could be sustained through late afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Early storm development is underway along the weak surface cold front, likely aided by a minor mid-level impulse upstream over central ND. Recent HRRR runs have trended towards this earlier and farther north regime, unlike the bulk of 12Z HREF guidance which indicated that far northeast SD into west-central MN will be the genesis region later today. With influence of a decayed MCS likely delaying that latter regime until evening, the short-term severe threat into late afternoon may be confined to a portion of eastern ND into far northwest MN. Low-level winds should remain weak and generally veered, yielding minimal hodograph curvature. But this combined with moderate buoyancy/deep-layer shear should result in primarily a large hail threat. Overall storm coverage could be fairly isolated, especially given the lack of cumulus ahead of the front this early in the afternoon. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 47409879 48039857 48469814 48429711 48139666 47619648 46729635 46349652 46129671 46109842 46589912 47139894 47409879 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1491 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1491 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central Pennsylvania into central New York Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471... Valid 281833Z - 282000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple strong, damaging gusts may still occur with an eastward-advancing MCS, as well as with other strong storms that manage to materialize over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...An MCS, with a history of producing multiple damaging gusts, continues to advance eastward across central PA. Ahead of this MCS, strong surface heating amid minimal convective inhibition is supporting up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given marginal vertical wind shear in the region, the MCS should continue eastward with a damaging gust threat for a few more hours. However, the presence of billow clouds, along with mesoanalysis output, suggest that stable conditions exist downstream over eastern PA toward NJ. While airmass modification should occur through the remainder of the afternoon, it is unclear how residual stability would impact the downstream damaging gust threat. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 39927947 40977866 41687796 42197748 43347580 43547539 43537519 43227498 42587497 41987502 41347538 40827592 40407637 40087699 39847758 39807851 39927947 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1490 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1490 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...Portions of southern and eastern Ohio...western West Virginia...far southwestern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281814Z - 281945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong/damaging wind gusts may occur with the stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is unlikely given the sparse nature of the overall severe threat. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of a weak frontal boundary, amid a modifying airmass behind an earlier MCS. Here, surface temperatures are rising into the upper 80s F, that combined with low 70s F dewpoints and 8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates, are boosting MLCAPE to 2500 J/kg. However, modest deep-layer westerly flow is resulting in weak vertical wind shear, and with buoyancy constrained to tall/narrow profiles, the main concern is for damaging gusts originating from the stronger storm cores. The severe threat should remain quite isolated, so a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 40028274 40408229 40738155 40818107 40728061 40418018 39967993 39557988 39238005 38968044 38758097 38628159 38578201 38718243 38868271 38988289 40028274 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z A departing mid-level trough will aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest Wyoming Sunday. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid a very dry fuelscape will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest Wyoming. Otherwise, fire weather concerns across much of the western U.S. will be mitigated by a building upper-level ridge bringing warming temperatures and generally light, terrain-driven winds. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to steadily build over the West Coast Sunday, as weak troughing shifts eastward. As heights continue to rise, weakening the flow aloft over the northern Rockies, a cold front will move out of the Northwest ushering in a cooler and higher humidity air mass. Some residual mid-level flow will linger across WY and western CO Sunday, but surface winds are expected to be much weaker and will shift to northwesterly. The weaker winds, along with increasing humidity should limit broader fire-weather potential. Some localized dry and breezy conditions will remain possible over southwest WY, but widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z A departing mid-level trough will aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest Wyoming Sunday. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid a very dry fuelscape will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest Wyoming. Otherwise, fire weather concerns across much of the western U.S. will be mitigated by a building upper-level ridge bringing warming temperatures and generally light, terrain-driven winds. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to steadily build over the West Coast Sunday, as weak troughing shifts eastward. As heights continue to rise, weakening the flow aloft over the northern Rockies, a cold front will move out of the Northwest ushering in a cooler and higher humidity air mass. Some residual mid-level flow will linger across WY and western CO Sunday, but surface winds are expected to be much weaker and will shift to northwesterly. The weaker winds, along with increasing humidity should limit broader fire-weather potential. Some localized dry and breezy conditions will remain possible over southwest WY, but widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z A departing mid-level trough will aid in sustaining breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph across the Interstate 80 corridor in southwest Wyoming Sunday. The winds overlapping with relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range amid a very dry fuelscape will support elevated fire weather conditions across southwest Wyoming. Otherwise, fire weather concerns across much of the western U.S. will be mitigated by a building upper-level ridge bringing warming temperatures and generally light, terrain-driven winds. ..Williams.. 06/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to steadily build over the West Coast Sunday, as weak troughing shifts eastward. As heights continue to rise, weakening the flow aloft over the northern Rockies, a cold front will move out of the Northwest ushering in a cooler and higher humidity air mass. Some residual mid-level flow will linger across WY and western CO Sunday, but surface winds are expected to be much weaker and will shift to northwesterly. The weaker winds, along with increasing humidity should limit broader fire-weather potential. Some localized dry and breezy conditions will remain possible over southwest WY, but widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more