Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains this evening into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridging has flattened across the northern Plains/upper Midwest as broader cyclonic flow now extends across the northern Rockies into the eastern Dakotas. This flow regime is notably diffluent across the upper Midwest, and scattered deep convection is maturing within this favorable environment from the upper Red River Valley into southwestern MN. While LLJ is not particularly strong at this time, latest model guidance suggests 1km flow could increase in excess of 35kt across southern MN by mid-late evening. Scattered supercells have evolved near the SD/MN border, and this activity could grow upscale as it propagates downstream along a weak boundary, aided by the aforementioned increase in LLJ and associated low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized updrafts. This supports the potential for all hazards with these storms into the late-evening hours. Upstream across the High Plains, water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance is ejecting across southern MT, and this feature will shift into the western Dakotas by the end of the period. Isolated thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain southwest of Billings MT, and there is some concern for additional development ahead of the short wave later tonight as it encounters a bit more moisture/instability over southeast MT into the Black Hills region. Until then, a long-lived supercell is digging southeast across Jackson County SD, just south of Phillip. This storm has a history of producing very large hail and damaging winds. This activity may remain somewhat isolated as it propagates toward south central SD later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 Read more

MD 1496 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...Western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 282318Z - 290045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Multicell clusters with isolated severe outflow gusts will be possible, but the need for a watch is uncertain. DISCUSSION...High-based storms have developed along a surface trough from northeast CO into the NE Panhandle. These storms are primarily driven by surface heating/mixing, with new development expected along convective outflows that spread eastward into the larger buoyancy. The storms/clusters will be capable of producing strong-severe outflow gusts in an environment with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates and strong downdraft potential. However, vertical shear is weak and storm organization/longevity will be limited and the need for a watch is uncertain. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 42500001 40980008 40100076 40090177 40780250 42140235 42630242 42980216 43020030 42500001 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N HLG TO 20 ESE AOO TO 10 SW ABE. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC009-041-051-055-057-059-111-290040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CUMBERLAND FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE SOMERSET WVC103-290040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WETZEL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N HLG TO 20 ESE AOO TO 10 SW ABE. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC009-041-051-055-057-059-111-290040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CUMBERLAND FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE SOMERSET WVC103-290040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WETZEL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N HLG TO 20 ESE AOO TO 10 SW ABE. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC009-041-051-055-057-059-111-290040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CUMBERLAND FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE SOMERSET WVC103-290040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WETZEL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N HLG TO 20 ESE AOO TO 10 SW ABE. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC009-041-051-055-057-059-111-290040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CUMBERLAND FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE SOMERSET WVC103-290040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WETZEL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N HLG TO 20 ESE AOO TO 10 SW ABE. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC009-041-051-055-057-059-111-290040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CUMBERLAND FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE SOMERSET WVC103-290040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WETZEL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 471 SEVERE TSTM NY PA 281550Z - 290000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 471 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern New York Western and Central Pennsylvania * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1150 AM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the day across the watch area, ahead of an approaching cold front. The strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north of Latrobe PA to 50 miles east northeast of Binghamton NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0472 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0472 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0472 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0472 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0473 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0473 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0474 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0474 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0474 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0474 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1496 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...Western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 282318Z - 290045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Multicell clusters with isolated severe outflow gusts will be possible, but the need for a watch is uncertain. DISCUSSION...High-based storms have developed along a surface trough from northeast CO into the NE Panhandle. These storms are primarily driven by surface heating/mixing, with new development expected along convective outflows that spread eastward into the larger buoyancy. The storms/clusters will be capable of producing strong-severe outflow gusts in an environment with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates and strong downdraft potential. However, vertical shear is weak and storm organization/longevity will be limited and the need for a watch is uncertain. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 42500001 40980008 40100076 40090177 40780250 42140235 42630242 42980216 43020030 42500001 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 28 23:16:09 UTC 2025.

WW 0473 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0473 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 473 SEVERE TSTM SD 282315Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 473 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and South-Central South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Intense supercell persistence is possible this evening across southwest to south-central South Dakota. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Rapid City SD to 55 miles southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 471...WW 472... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N HLG TO 20 ESE AOO TO 10 SW ABE. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC009-041-051-055-057-059-111-290040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CUMBERLAND FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE SOMERSET WVC103-290040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WETZEL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1495 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota...northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 282149Z - 282315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing storms in eastern North Dakota could continue to develop southward with the need for a watch in the short term. New storm development is also possible in the next couple of hours across northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota, where a separate watch could be needed in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing across east central ND near and just ahead of a surface cold front, and downstream from subtle/embedded speed maxima moving generally eastward over ND. Given already minimal convective inhibition and a sufficiently moist environment, new development appears likely along the south flank of the ongoing storms, with an eventual storm cluster possible that will move toward west central MN through late evening. Observed wind profiles are not particularly strong in the vicinity of the developing storms, so a mixed mode of clusters and a few supercells appears more probable, with the primary threats being large hail and severe outflow gusts for the next few hours. Farther south and later this afternoon/evening, more discrete storm development will be possible across northeast SD in a zone of deepening cumulus. Wind profiles will become a little more favorable for supercells in this area and a more discrete storm mode is expected initially, so there will be some concern for a couple of tornadoes. A separate watch may be needed late this afternoon from northeast SD into west central MN. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 46919822 47309810 47519770 47729712 47789667 47429627 46739583 45999575 45639569 45369572 44969604 44779645 44649724 44709765 45059796 46069787 46519798 46919822 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 471 SEVERE TSTM NY PA 281550Z - 290000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 471 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern New York Western and Central Pennsylvania * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1150 AM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the day across the watch area, ahead of an approaching cold front. The strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north of Latrobe PA to 50 miles east northeast of Binghamton NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more