Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0478 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1507 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1507 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291707Z - 291930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A threat for sporadic tree damage due to thunderstorm downbursts will increase this afternoon as thunderstorms develop. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing this afternoon within a continued warm, moist, and uncapped airmass. Deep-layer shear and tropospheric flow will remain rather anemic leading to slow moving thunderstorms whose motion will be driven primarily by cold-pool interactions and terrain features. Precipitable water values across the area range from about 1.5 inches in the higher elevations of the Appalachians to about 2 inches in the Chesapeake Bay area. The combination of slow storm motions and high-precipitable water may yield isolated, water-loaded downbursts capable of producing sporadic tree damage. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a watch is not anticipated. ..Marsh.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 39557716 39777461 39357385 37917491 36937609 35937879 35018295 35338406 38547936 39557716 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0477 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0477 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 29 17:59:01 UTC 2025.

MD 1506 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...eastern KS and western MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291624Z - 291830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An increasing threat for severe wind gusts may develop into this afternoon with potential for an expanding cluster of south-southeast moving storms along the Kansas-Missouri border. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...An initially small cluster of storms across east-central KS has recently produced measured gusts of 47 kts at TOP and 42 kts at FOE. While deep-layer winds/shear is marginal, there is potential for thermodynamically driven cold pool propagation along a gradient of differential boundary-layer heating/MLCAPE. 12Z NSSL-MPAS runs appear to have well-handled this initial development and suggest an expanding cluster may intensify to the south-southeast. Recent HRRR runs have depicted this scenario to an extent, albeit delayed and maintaining more compact clustering into late afternoon. Given the weak background shear/forcing for ascent, confidence is below average on whether a sufficient severe wind threat will become apparent for downstream watch issuance. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39089504 38849425 38199341 37649310 37149310 36689314 36559395 36859484 37249575 37489665 37939684 38359657 39089504 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, as upper ridging builds over the Plains states and an upper-level low impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). A cold front will accompany the Midwest mid-level trough, and is poised to progress across the Mid-MS and OH Valley regions while draping across the southern Plains through the day. In advance of the cold front, adequate moisture and overall instability will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms. Given the presence of modest vertical wind shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally severe. Thunderstorms may also develop north of a surface low along the CA/OR border, amid an unstable airmass supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Preceding an advancing cold front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, atop relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, will result in airmass destabilization and 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. While MLCINH will minimize by late morning, the poor mid-level lapse rates suggest that CAPE should be constrained to tall/thin profiles. Furthermore, unidirectional vertical wind profiles with little strengthening with height, should lead to mediocre deep-layer shear. While many scattered storms should develop along the cold front, and ahead in the uncapped warm sector, most storms should be pulse-cellular to multicellular in nature. A few of the stronger storms may support wet downbursts capable of producing localized damaging gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Similar to the Great Lakes/OH Valley vicinity, strong boundary-layer heating will quickly reduce convective inhibition and support scattered thunderstorm development amid weak vertical wind shear. 2000+ J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE will support wet downburst potential, and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by afternoon peak heating ahead of the trailing cold front over the southern Plains. Surface temperatures should warm to near 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding as much as 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE given modest mid-level lapse rates. Though vertical wind shear should be relatively poor, the strong buoyancy in place may compensate to support wet downbursts and associated isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Scattered thunderstorms will develop immediately north of a weak surface low, where localized forcing for ascent will be in place. These thunderstorms should develop atop a mixed boundary layer that may deepen to 600-500 mb. Furthermore, the presence of 9+ C/km lapse rates through the troposphere may promote enough thermodynamically-driven downward momentum transport to support isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Point forecast soundings also depict curved/elongated hodographs, which may support multicells and transient supercells with a marginal hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more