Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Northwest... Northern extent of isolated dry thunderstorm threat was trimmed owing to expected decrease in thunderstorm intensity/lightning production late Monday, closer to the Columbia Gorge. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ...Great Basin... Advancing mid-level trough into the Western U.S. with attendant increasing mid-level winds atop a very dry/well-mixed boundary later will support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of central and eastern Nevada Monday. Sustained south winds of around 15 mph combined with afternoon relative humidity of 10-15 percent along with dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential. ...Southwest and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Shower and thunderstorm development is expected along higher terrain Monday afternoon as monsoon moisture advances into the Great Four Corners Region. A few dry thunderstorms are expected across southwest Colorado, western New Mexico and into the White Mountains of southeast Arizona. Slow thunderstorm motions in proximity to a Four Corners high, a marked increase in monsoon moisture magnitude and relative humidity into the region through midweek along with improving fuel indices should limit potential spread of ignitions. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Northwest... Northern extent of isolated dry thunderstorm threat was trimmed owing to expected decrease in thunderstorm intensity/lightning production late Monday, closer to the Columbia Gorge. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ...Great Basin... Advancing mid-level trough into the Western U.S. with attendant increasing mid-level winds atop a very dry/well-mixed boundary later will support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of central and eastern Nevada Monday. Sustained south winds of around 15 mph combined with afternoon relative humidity of 10-15 percent along with dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential. ...Southwest and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Shower and thunderstorm development is expected along higher terrain Monday afternoon as monsoon moisture advances into the Great Four Corners Region. A few dry thunderstorms are expected across southwest Colorado, western New Mexico and into the White Mountains of southeast Arizona. Slow thunderstorm motions in proximity to a Four Corners high, a marked increase in monsoon moisture magnitude and relative humidity into the region through midweek along with improving fuel indices should limit potential spread of ignitions. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Northwest... Northern extent of isolated dry thunderstorm threat was trimmed owing to expected decrease in thunderstorm intensity/lightning production late Monday, closer to the Columbia Gorge. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ...Great Basin... Advancing mid-level trough into the Western U.S. with attendant increasing mid-level winds atop a very dry/well-mixed boundary later will support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of central and eastern Nevada Monday. Sustained south winds of around 15 mph combined with afternoon relative humidity of 10-15 percent along with dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential. ...Southwest and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Shower and thunderstorm development is expected along higher terrain Monday afternoon as monsoon moisture advances into the Great Four Corners Region. A few dry thunderstorms are expected across southwest Colorado, western New Mexico and into the White Mountains of southeast Arizona. Slow thunderstorm motions in proximity to a Four Corners high, a marked increase in monsoon moisture magnitude and relative humidity into the region through midweek along with improving fuel indices should limit potential spread of ignitions. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Northwest... Northern extent of isolated dry thunderstorm threat was trimmed owing to expected decrease in thunderstorm intensity/lightning production late Monday, closer to the Columbia Gorge. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ...Great Basin... Advancing mid-level trough into the Western U.S. with attendant increasing mid-level winds atop a very dry/well-mixed boundary later will support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of central and eastern Nevada Monday. Sustained south winds of around 15 mph combined with afternoon relative humidity of 10-15 percent along with dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential. ...Southwest and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Shower and thunderstorm development is expected along higher terrain Monday afternoon as monsoon moisture advances into the Great Four Corners Region. A few dry thunderstorms are expected across southwest Colorado, western New Mexico and into the White Mountains of southeast Arizona. Slow thunderstorm motions in proximity to a Four Corners high, a marked increase in monsoon moisture magnitude and relative humidity into the region through midweek along with improving fuel indices should limit potential spread of ignitions. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Northwest... Northern extent of isolated dry thunderstorm threat was trimmed owing to expected decrease in thunderstorm intensity/lightning production late Monday, closer to the Columbia Gorge. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track. ...Great Basin... Advancing mid-level trough into the Western U.S. with attendant increasing mid-level winds atop a very dry/well-mixed boundary later will support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of central and eastern Nevada Monday. Sustained south winds of around 15 mph combined with afternoon relative humidity of 10-15 percent along with dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential. ...Southwest and Upper-Colorado River Basin... Shower and thunderstorm development is expected along higher terrain Monday afternoon as monsoon moisture advances into the Great Four Corners Region. A few dry thunderstorms are expected across southwest Colorado, western New Mexico and into the White Mountains of southeast Arizona. Slow thunderstorm motions in proximity to a Four Corners high, a marked increase in monsoon moisture magnitude and relative humidity into the region through midweek along with improving fuel indices should limit potential spread of ignitions. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... As mid-level ridging builds over the western US, a weak subtropical low will deepen along the western periphery of the ridge across CA Monday. The building mid-level heights and approach of the upper trough will allow robust mid-level moisture to shift northward across portions of the West. ...Northwest... Heating across the higher terrain, coupled with weak ascent from the approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR Monday afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment. Given the potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, an IsoDryT area has been added across parts of the Northwest where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Farther south, beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, widespread RH values below 15% will be present. Occasional 15 mph wind gusts on a local basis and the hot/dry conditions could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1508 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR A PART OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO EASTERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1508 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...a part of the Upper MS Valley to eastern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291757Z - 292000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic downbursts capable of isolated wind damage, along with small to marginally severe hail will be possible as scattered thunderstorms likely develop through the afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...To the north of ongoing deep convection across northeast MO, a separate MCV in southeast MN should aid in increasing thunderstorm coverage downstream across a portion of the Upper MS Valley. The airmass is uncapped with moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg, with surface temperatures into the mid to upper 80s amid low 70s dew points. Deep-layer shear profiles are expected to remain weak south, with light 0-4 km winds per the DVN/MKX VWP, with modest shear north per the ARX/GRB VWP. Initial cores will be capable of small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. Depending on the number of storms that form, a slower-moving multicell cluster may evolve across a portion of southern to eastern WI with sporadic strong gusts. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 43309236 43929225 44419078 44718988 44908895 44788794 44388780 43438835 42928855 42528901 42338980 42199107 42449160 43309236 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe. ...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic... As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture, overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough, enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind damage may occur on a more frequent basis. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward. Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025 Read more