Severe Storms

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LSE TO 35 WSW OSH TO 25 NE MTW. ..THOMPSON..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC015-021-023-025-027-039-043-045-047-049-065-071-103-111- 292240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC RICHLAND SAUK LMZ543-292240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LSE TO 35 WSW OSH TO 25 NE MTW. ..THOMPSON..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC015-021-023-025-027-039-043-045-047-049-065-071-103-111- 292240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC RICHLAND SAUK LMZ543-292240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 477 SEVERE TSTM WI LM 291830Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a weak cold front across Wisconsin. These storms will spread northeastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles southwest of Lonerock WI to 60 miles north northeast of Green Bay WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1513 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478... FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1513 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri...and far northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478... Valid 292037Z - 292200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon. Isolated wind damage should be the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop/loosely organize across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this afternoon along the leading edge of an advancing cold pool from overnight convection. The airmass along and ahead of these storms is strongly to extremely unstable, with MUCAPE values in excess of 5000 J/kg across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with very little convective inhibition remaining. The degree of instability and loose organization should continue a severe threat through the afternoon despite the presence of meager deep-layer shear. The extreme instability, and precipitable water values near 2 inches in the vicinity of these thunderstorms should lead to continued water-loaded downdrafts and a reinforcement of the cold pool, leading to continued thunderstorm development. An isolated severe wind gust or wind damage will be possible this afternoon, especially on or near area lakes where frictional effects will be minimized. ..Marsh.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 37009649 37569652 37619597 38029590 38019464 38059457 38049405 38199404 38199350 38089350 38059303 37909306 37909321 37749320 37739314 37449318 37429306 37139308 37089290 36849290 36839277 36519279 36499461 36679463 36669501 36539500 36519531 36599532 36599579 37009579 37009649 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1512 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... FOR PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1512 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...Portions of Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477... Valid 292022Z - 292145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue this afternoon in a strongly unstable airmass. Large hail and isolated wind damage are possible with the strongest thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue along a diffuse frontal zone across Wisconsin this afternoon in response to strong diurnal heating and minimal inhibition. Despite most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg, these thunderstorms have shown little organization nor longevity -- likely owing to the weak deep-layer shear. Given the degree of instability, freezing heights are sufficiently low to support an isolated large hail threat through the afternoon, especially with the strongest thunderstorm cores. Additionally, the potential for isolated wind damage may occur with any strong thunderstorm updraft collapse. ..Marsh.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 42488934 42519060 42629069 42739104 43119119 43269107 43359120 43699125 43719091 44149091 44139030 44229028 44228970 44488970 44478980 44658977 44658922 45038918 44998896 45108894 45108859 45338868 45338840 45718837 45708807 45758806 45708781 45428783 45348783 45378769 45188772 45078758 45418736 45378676 45018697 44588736 44318743 44198743 44098749 44108761 43908763 43868816 43568816 43538842 43228840 43208897 42868899 42858936 42488934 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1511 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM
Mesoscale Discussion 1511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...southeast CO and northeast NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292000Z - 292130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible through late afternoon across southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. After coordination with WFO PUB, watch issuance in the near-term is unlikely, but may increase later towards the Kansas border. DISCUSSION...Several cells have formed from the Pikes Peak region southward along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Much of this region lies on the fringe of meager buoyancy with a deep, well-mixed boundary layer across the adjacent High Plains. PUB VWP data sampled slightly stronger low-level northeasterlies relative to mid-level westerlies, indicative of the modest deep-layer flow and shear environment. Nevertheless, the large surface temperature-dew point spreads will be favorable for microbursts capable of strong to severe gusts. Convection is expected to remain disorganized over the next few hours. There is signal that some uptick may occur into early evening as outflows impinge on increasingly greater buoyancy towards the KS border. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 38630494 38980467 38720418 38430412 38370334 38380309 38260286 37650284 36940287 36600286 36210318 35730460 35810497 37100483 38260499 38630494 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1510 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST CO...NORTHWEST KS...FAR SOUTHWEST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1510 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...northeast CO...northwest KS...far southwest NE Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 291852Z - 292045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Initially isolated severe wind/hail threats are anticipated along the I-25 corridor in Colorado. A slow-moving QLCS, with an increasing wind threat, should evolve eastward across northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas this evening. DISCUSSION...Persistent surface northeasterlies are aiding in the advection of 50s dew points westward towards the Foothills north of the Palmer Divide. This will aid in increasing convective development off the higher terrain and across the I-25 corridor into the adjacent High Plains through this evening. Mid-level westerlies are weak to modest, but sufficient for transient mid-level rotation amid substantial veering of the wind profile with height. This type of flow regime should support outflow-dominated convection. Colliding outflows and amalgamating cells will likely yield a slow-moving MCS as they shift east towards the KS border. As this occurs, a mix of severe wind/hail may transition to primarily a severe gust threat. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40940232 40590165 40080130 39400123 38550211 38400278 38670412 39030472 39760493 40440509 40930510 40940326 40940232 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-031-039-069-073-075-087-095-115-121-123- 292140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD DENVER ELBERT LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-292140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-033-047-071-081-093-102-103-292140- Read more

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-031-039-069-073-075-087-095-115-121-123- 292140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD DENVER ELBERT LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-292140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-033-047-071-081-093-102-103-292140- Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513. ..GRAMS..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-011-019-021-037-049-099-125-133-205-207-292140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON MOC009-011-039-043-057-077-085-097-109-119-145-167-185-209-213- 217-292140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE GREENE HICKORY JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON POLK ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY VERNON Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513. ..GRAMS..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-011-019-021-037-049-099-125-133-205-207-292140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON MOC009-011-039-043-057-077-085-097-109-119-145-167-185-209-213- 217-292140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE GREENE HICKORY JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON POLK ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY VERNON Read more

MD 1509 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN WY...THE NE PANHANDLE ...SOUTHWEST SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1509 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...eastern WY...the NE Panhandle ...southwest SD Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 291828Z - 292030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated large hail and severe gusts are likely, with scattered coverage possible by late afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is expected. DISCUSSION...Initial, lower-topped convection has formed across far southeast MT towards the Black Hills. This activity is expected to strengthen over the next couple hours amid modest MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear around 40 kts. While the parameter space is a step-down from yesterday, which should mitigate overall intensity, the coverage of storms should be greater by peak heating. Additional storms should develop within the weak upslope flow regime across southeast WY. Both areas may eventually converge in the NE Panhandle to far southwest SD vicinity by early evening. A few supercells with large hail are most likely in the northern regime surrounding the Black Hills. Severe gusts may be the primary hazard farther south where multicell clustering dominates. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 45350502 44520346 43690208 42970166 42050152 41470218 41160293 41120431 41070513 42440530 43820586 44550635 45350502 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE VOK TO 30 S ESC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512. ..MARSH..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-009-015-021-023-025-027-029-039-043-045-047-049-057-061- 065-071-077-081-083-087-097-103-111-115-123-135-137-139- 292140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE DOOR FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA JUNEAU KEWAUNEE LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC MARQUETTE MONROE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE RICHLAND SAUK SHAWANO VERNON WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO LMZ521-522-541-542-543-292140- CW Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE VOK TO 30 S ESC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512. ..MARSH..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-009-015-021-023-025-027-029-039-043-045-047-049-057-061- 065-071-077-081-083-087-097-103-111-115-123-135-137-139- 292140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE DOOR FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA JUNEAU KEWAUNEE LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC MARQUETTE MONROE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE RICHLAND SAUK SHAWANO VERNON WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO LMZ521-522-541-542-543-292140- CW Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...20Z Update... The Slight risk was expanded southeastward from parts of the central Plains into the Middle MS Valley, where a cluster of thunderstorms is intensifying as it impinges on a strongly unstable air mass. The primary concern with this activity is damaging wind gusts. For information on the severe risk here, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Additionally, 2-percent tornado probabilities were added along this corridor and westward into southeast/south-central KS and far northeast/north-central OK. Here, antecedent outflow is diurnally destabilizing amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will support a localized tornado risk with any cells that can develop in this corridor. Farther west, significant-wind probabilities were added over northwest KS, southwest NE, and far eastern CO. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve out of CO and move through this area will have the potential of producing gusts upward of 75 mph -- aided by steep deep-layer lapse rates and sufficiently elongated hodographs. Additionally, visible satellite imagery shows a shallow boundary-layer cumulus field along a surface wind shift in this general area. As storms move into this area of enhanced moisture and steep lapse rates, a brief tornado will be possible. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 and MCD 1508 for the severe risk in the Upper Midwest, and MCDs 1509 and 1510 for the High Plains severe risk. ..Weinman.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...20Z Update... The Slight risk was expanded southeastward from parts of the central Plains into the Middle MS Valley, where a cluster of thunderstorms is intensifying as it impinges on a strongly unstable air mass. The primary concern with this activity is damaging wind gusts. For information on the severe risk here, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Additionally, 2-percent tornado probabilities were added along this corridor and westward into southeast/south-central KS and far northeast/north-central OK. Here, antecedent outflow is diurnally destabilizing amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will support a localized tornado risk with any cells that can develop in this corridor. Farther west, significant-wind probabilities were added over northwest KS, southwest NE, and far eastern CO. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve out of CO and move through this area will have the potential of producing gusts upward of 75 mph -- aided by steep deep-layer lapse rates and sufficiently elongated hodographs. Additionally, visible satellite imagery shows a shallow boundary-layer cumulus field along a surface wind shift in this general area. As storms move into this area of enhanced moisture and steep lapse rates, a brief tornado will be possible. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 and MCD 1508 for the severe risk in the Upper Midwest, and MCDs 1509 and 1510 for the High Plains severe risk. ..Weinman.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...20Z Update... The Slight risk was expanded southeastward from parts of the central Plains into the Middle MS Valley, where a cluster of thunderstorms is intensifying as it impinges on a strongly unstable air mass. The primary concern with this activity is damaging wind gusts. For information on the severe risk here, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Additionally, 2-percent tornado probabilities were added along this corridor and westward into southeast/south-central KS and far northeast/north-central OK. Here, antecedent outflow is diurnally destabilizing amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will support a localized tornado risk with any cells that can develop in this corridor. Farther west, significant-wind probabilities were added over northwest KS, southwest NE, and far eastern CO. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve out of CO and move through this area will have the potential of producing gusts upward of 75 mph -- aided by steep deep-layer lapse rates and sufficiently elongated hodographs. Additionally, visible satellite imagery shows a shallow boundary-layer cumulus field along a surface wind shift in this general area. As storms move into this area of enhanced moisture and steep lapse rates, a brief tornado will be possible. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 and MCD 1508 for the severe risk in the Upper Midwest, and MCDs 1509 and 1510 for the High Plains severe risk. ..Weinman.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...20Z Update... The Slight risk was expanded southeastward from parts of the central Plains into the Middle MS Valley, where a cluster of thunderstorms is intensifying as it impinges on a strongly unstable air mass. The primary concern with this activity is damaging wind gusts. For information on the severe risk here, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Additionally, 2-percent tornado probabilities were added along this corridor and westward into southeast/south-central KS and far northeast/north-central OK. Here, antecedent outflow is diurnally destabilizing amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will support a localized tornado risk with any cells that can develop in this corridor. Farther west, significant-wind probabilities were added over northwest KS, southwest NE, and far eastern CO. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve out of CO and move through this area will have the potential of producing gusts upward of 75 mph -- aided by steep deep-layer lapse rates and sufficiently elongated hodographs. Additionally, visible satellite imagery shows a shallow boundary-layer cumulus field along a surface wind shift in this general area. As storms move into this area of enhanced moisture and steep lapse rates, a brief tornado will be possible. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 and MCD 1508 for the severe risk in the Upper Midwest, and MCDs 1509 and 1510 for the High Plains severe risk. ..Weinman.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...20Z Update... The Slight risk was expanded southeastward from parts of the central Plains into the Middle MS Valley, where a cluster of thunderstorms is intensifying as it impinges on a strongly unstable air mass. The primary concern with this activity is damaging wind gusts. For information on the severe risk here, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Additionally, 2-percent tornado probabilities were added along this corridor and westward into southeast/south-central KS and far northeast/north-central OK. Here, antecedent outflow is diurnally destabilizing amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will support a localized tornado risk with any cells that can develop in this corridor. Farther west, significant-wind probabilities were added over northwest KS, southwest NE, and far eastern CO. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve out of CO and move through this area will have the potential of producing gusts upward of 75 mph -- aided by steep deep-layer lapse rates and sufficiently elongated hodographs. Additionally, visible satellite imagery shows a shallow boundary-layer cumulus field along a surface wind shift in this general area. As storms move into this area of enhanced moisture and steep lapse rates, a brief tornado will be possible. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 and MCD 1508 for the severe risk in the Upper Midwest, and MCDs 1509 and 1510 for the High Plains severe risk. ..Weinman.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...20Z Update... The Slight risk was expanded southeastward from parts of the central Plains into the Middle MS Valley, where a cluster of thunderstorms is intensifying as it impinges on a strongly unstable air mass. The primary concern with this activity is damaging wind gusts. For information on the severe risk here, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Additionally, 2-percent tornado probabilities were added along this corridor and westward into southeast/south-central KS and far northeast/north-central OK. Here, antecedent outflow is diurnally destabilizing amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will support a localized tornado risk with any cells that can develop in this corridor. Farther west, significant-wind probabilities were added over northwest KS, southwest NE, and far eastern CO. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve out of CO and move through this area will have the potential of producing gusts upward of 75 mph -- aided by steep deep-layer lapse rates and sufficiently elongated hodographs. Additionally, visible satellite imagery shows a shallow boundary-layer cumulus field along a surface wind shift in this general area. As storms move into this area of enhanced moisture and steep lapse rates, a brief tornado will be possible. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 and MCD 1508 for the severe risk in the Upper Midwest, and MCDs 1509 and 1510 for the High Plains severe risk. ..Weinman.. 06/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025/ ...Eastern KS/Western MO... An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further short-term details. ...WY/CO/SD/NE... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY, high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE Panhandle. Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. ...IA/WI... Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more