Severe Storms

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW DBQ TO 15 WSW LNR TO 25 NW MKE. WW 477 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300200Z. ..THOMPSON..06/30/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC025-043-045-049-065-300200- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANE GRANT GREEN IOWA LAFAYETTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW DBQ TO 15 WSW LNR TO 25 NW MKE. WW 477 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300200Z. ..THOMPSON..06/30/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC025-043-045-049-065-300200- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANE GRANT GREEN IOWA LAFAYETTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW DBQ TO 15 WSW LNR TO 25 NW MKE. WW 477 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300200Z. ..THOMPSON..06/30/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC025-043-045-049-065-300200- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANE GRANT GREEN IOWA LAFAYETTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW DBQ TO 15 WSW LNR TO 25 NW MKE. WW 477 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300200Z. ..THOMPSON..06/30/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC025-043-045-049-065-300200- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANE GRANT GREEN IOWA LAFAYETTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW DBQ TO 15 WSW LNR TO 25 NW MKE. WW 477 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300200Z. ..THOMPSON..06/30/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC025-043-045-049-065-300200- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANE GRANT GREEN IOWA LAFAYETTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 477 SEVERE TSTM WI LM 291830Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a weak cold front across Wisconsin. These storms will spread northeastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles southwest of Lonerock WI to 60 miles north northeast of Green Bay WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1516 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479... FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479... Valid 292309Z - 300115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will continue this evening. Hail and wind remain the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Mid-level flow has increased a bit within the base of the northern Plains upper trough. Latest data suggests 6km flow is around 30-35kt across northern portions of ww479, but noticeably weaker into northern CO. Over the next several hours, this flow should gradually veer into the northwest, and ongoing convection is expected to more readily advance downstream across the central High Plains, well north of a front that is draped across northwestern KS into northeast CO. While any semblance of a LLJ will remain confined to western KS, this activity appears to be aided in part by the upper trough. Latest radar data exhibits at least 4-5 longer-lived updrafts from southwestern SD into extreme northern CO. Most of these are generating severe hail. With time this activity should advance downstream into north central NE where a new severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 43960495 43950255 39110273 39120498 43960495 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the central/Southern Plains and Ozarks. More isolated severe storms are possible across the Great lakes and upper Midwest. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing from southern SD to eastern WY/CO and into western KS/NE. Moderate instability and elongated hodographs will continue to support supercells. Hail and damaging winds will remain likely this evening. With time, upscale growth into one or more larger clusters appears likely across the eastern CO Plains and western NE/KS. Modest forcing for ascent and effective shear suggest the degree of organization of any clusters that form is somewhat uncertain. Confidence in greater storm organization is highest across parts of KS/NE along the sagging cold front. Here, large buoyancy and locally stronger forcing may allow for more efficient upscale growth. Should a more organized MCS develop, a conditional risk for gusts upward of 75 mph is possible across parts of the central Plains tonight. ...Ozarks to central KS... An ongoing complex of thunderstorms with an established cold pool is likely to persist into this evening amidst a very buoyant (4000 J/kg MUCAPE) but weakly sheared air mass across the Ozarks and southern Plains. Model guidance and observational trends suggest a gradual weakening of the entire complex is likely with southward extent this evening, related to the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of broader deep-layer ascent. Still, isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern AR and southern MO. To the west, new thunderstorm development across parts of south-central KS and northeastern OK will likely be the new focus for stronger storms on the flanks of the surging outflow tonight. Given the degree of buoyancy, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. One or more clusters of strong to occasionally severe storms are likely, and may persist into northern OK and southern KS tonight. ...Great Lakes to the upper Midwest... Isolated storm development remains possible this evening along trailing outflow and a weak cold front from southern WI to IA. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Still, remaining instability and moist surface conditions will promote occasional strong downdrafts this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the central/Southern Plains and Ozarks. More isolated severe storms are possible across the Great lakes and upper Midwest. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing from southern SD to eastern WY/CO and into western KS/NE. Moderate instability and elongated hodographs will continue to support supercells. Hail and damaging winds will remain likely this evening. With time, upscale growth into one or more larger clusters appears likely across the eastern CO Plains and western NE/KS. Modest forcing for ascent and effective shear suggest the degree of organization of any clusters that form is somewhat uncertain. Confidence in greater storm organization is highest across parts of KS/NE along the sagging cold front. Here, large buoyancy and locally stronger forcing may allow for more efficient upscale growth. Should a more organized MCS develop, a conditional risk for gusts upward of 75 mph is possible across parts of the central Plains tonight. ...Ozarks to central KS... An ongoing complex of thunderstorms with an established cold pool is likely to persist into this evening amidst a very buoyant (4000 J/kg MUCAPE) but weakly sheared air mass across the Ozarks and southern Plains. Model guidance and observational trends suggest a gradual weakening of the entire complex is likely with southward extent this evening, related to the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of broader deep-layer ascent. Still, isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern AR and southern MO. To the west, new thunderstorm development across parts of south-central KS and northeastern OK will likely be the new focus for stronger storms on the flanks of the surging outflow tonight. Given the degree of buoyancy, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. One or more clusters of strong to occasionally severe storms are likely, and may persist into northern OK and southern KS tonight. ...Great Lakes to the upper Midwest... Isolated storm development remains possible this evening along trailing outflow and a weak cold front from southern WI to IA. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Still, remaining instability and moist surface conditions will promote occasional strong downdrafts this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the central/Southern Plains and Ozarks. More isolated severe storms are possible across the Great lakes and upper Midwest. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing from southern SD to eastern WY/CO and into western KS/NE. Moderate instability and elongated hodographs will continue to support supercells. Hail and damaging winds will remain likely this evening. With time, upscale growth into one or more larger clusters appears likely across the eastern CO Plains and western NE/KS. Modest forcing for ascent and effective shear suggest the degree of organization of any clusters that form is somewhat uncertain. Confidence in greater storm organization is highest across parts of KS/NE along the sagging cold front. Here, large buoyancy and locally stronger forcing may allow for more efficient upscale growth. Should a more organized MCS develop, a conditional risk for gusts upward of 75 mph is possible across parts of the central Plains tonight. ...Ozarks to central KS... An ongoing complex of thunderstorms with an established cold pool is likely to persist into this evening amidst a very buoyant (4000 J/kg MUCAPE) but weakly sheared air mass across the Ozarks and southern Plains. Model guidance and observational trends suggest a gradual weakening of the entire complex is likely with southward extent this evening, related to the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of broader deep-layer ascent. Still, isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern AR and southern MO. To the west, new thunderstorm development across parts of south-central KS and northeastern OK will likely be the new focus for stronger storms on the flanks of the surging outflow tonight. Given the degree of buoyancy, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. One or more clusters of strong to occasionally severe storms are likely, and may persist into northern OK and southern KS tonight. ...Great Lakes to the upper Midwest... Isolated storm development remains possible this evening along trailing outflow and a weak cold front from southern WI to IA. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Still, remaining instability and moist surface conditions will promote occasional strong downdrafts this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the central/Southern Plains and Ozarks. More isolated severe storms are possible across the Great lakes and upper Midwest. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing from southern SD to eastern WY/CO and into western KS/NE. Moderate instability and elongated hodographs will continue to support supercells. Hail and damaging winds will remain likely this evening. With time, upscale growth into one or more larger clusters appears likely across the eastern CO Plains and western NE/KS. Modest forcing for ascent and effective shear suggest the degree of organization of any clusters that form is somewhat uncertain. Confidence in greater storm organization is highest across parts of KS/NE along the sagging cold front. Here, large buoyancy and locally stronger forcing may allow for more efficient upscale growth. Should a more organized MCS develop, a conditional risk for gusts upward of 75 mph is possible across parts of the central Plains tonight. ...Ozarks to central KS... An ongoing complex of thunderstorms with an established cold pool is likely to persist into this evening amidst a very buoyant (4000 J/kg MUCAPE) but weakly sheared air mass across the Ozarks and southern Plains. Model guidance and observational trends suggest a gradual weakening of the entire complex is likely with southward extent this evening, related to the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of broader deep-layer ascent. Still, isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern AR and southern MO. To the west, new thunderstorm development across parts of south-central KS and northeastern OK will likely be the new focus for stronger storms on the flanks of the surging outflow tonight. Given the degree of buoyancy, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. One or more clusters of strong to occasionally severe storms are likely, and may persist into northern OK and southern KS tonight. ...Great Lakes to the upper Midwest... Isolated storm development remains possible this evening along trailing outflow and a weak cold front from southern WI to IA. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Still, remaining instability and moist surface conditions will promote occasional strong downdrafts this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the central/Southern Plains and Ozarks. More isolated severe storms are possible across the Great lakes and upper Midwest. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing from southern SD to eastern WY/CO and into western KS/NE. Moderate instability and elongated hodographs will continue to support supercells. Hail and damaging winds will remain likely this evening. With time, upscale growth into one or more larger clusters appears likely across the eastern CO Plains and western NE/KS. Modest forcing for ascent and effective shear suggest the degree of organization of any clusters that form is somewhat uncertain. Confidence in greater storm organization is highest across parts of KS/NE along the sagging cold front. Here, large buoyancy and locally stronger forcing may allow for more efficient upscale growth. Should a more organized MCS develop, a conditional risk for gusts upward of 75 mph is possible across parts of the central Plains tonight. ...Ozarks to central KS... An ongoing complex of thunderstorms with an established cold pool is likely to persist into this evening amidst a very buoyant (4000 J/kg MUCAPE) but weakly sheared air mass across the Ozarks and southern Plains. Model guidance and observational trends suggest a gradual weakening of the entire complex is likely with southward extent this evening, related to the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of broader deep-layer ascent. Still, isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern AR and southern MO. To the west, new thunderstorm development across parts of south-central KS and northeastern OK will likely be the new focus for stronger storms on the flanks of the surging outflow tonight. Given the degree of buoyancy, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. One or more clusters of strong to occasionally severe storms are likely, and may persist into northern OK and southern KS tonight. ...Great Lakes to the upper Midwest... Isolated storm development remains possible this evening along trailing outflow and a weak cold front from southern WI to IA. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Still, remaining instability and moist surface conditions will promote occasional strong downdrafts this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the central/Southern Plains and Ozarks. More isolated severe storms are possible across the Great lakes and upper Midwest. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing from southern SD to eastern WY/CO and into western KS/NE. Moderate instability and elongated hodographs will continue to support supercells. Hail and damaging winds will remain likely this evening. With time, upscale growth into one or more larger clusters appears likely across the eastern CO Plains and western NE/KS. Modest forcing for ascent and effective shear suggest the degree of organization of any clusters that form is somewhat uncertain. Confidence in greater storm organization is highest across parts of KS/NE along the sagging cold front. Here, large buoyancy and locally stronger forcing may allow for more efficient upscale growth. Should a more organized MCS develop, a conditional risk for gusts upward of 75 mph is possible across parts of the central Plains tonight. ...Ozarks to central KS... An ongoing complex of thunderstorms with an established cold pool is likely to persist into this evening amidst a very buoyant (4000 J/kg MUCAPE) but weakly sheared air mass across the Ozarks and southern Plains. Model guidance and observational trends suggest a gradual weakening of the entire complex is likely with southward extent this evening, related to the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of broader deep-layer ascent. Still, isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern AR and southern MO. To the west, new thunderstorm development across parts of south-central KS and northeastern OK will likely be the new focus for stronger storms on the flanks of the surging outflow tonight. Given the degree of buoyancy, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. One or more clusters of strong to occasionally severe storms are likely, and may persist into northern OK and southern KS tonight. ...Great Lakes to the upper Midwest... Isolated storm development remains possible this evening along trailing outflow and a weak cold front from southern WI to IA. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Still, remaining instability and moist surface conditions will promote occasional strong downdrafts this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the central/Southern Plains and Ozarks. More isolated severe storms are possible across the Great lakes and upper Midwest. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing from southern SD to eastern WY/CO and into western KS/NE. Moderate instability and elongated hodographs will continue to support supercells. Hail and damaging winds will remain likely this evening. With time, upscale growth into one or more larger clusters appears likely across the eastern CO Plains and western NE/KS. Modest forcing for ascent and effective shear suggest the degree of organization of any clusters that form is somewhat uncertain. Confidence in greater storm organization is highest across parts of KS/NE along the sagging cold front. Here, large buoyancy and locally stronger forcing may allow for more efficient upscale growth. Should a more organized MCS develop, a conditional risk for gusts upward of 75 mph is possible across parts of the central Plains tonight. ...Ozarks to central KS... An ongoing complex of thunderstorms with an established cold pool is likely to persist into this evening amidst a very buoyant (4000 J/kg MUCAPE) but weakly sheared air mass across the Ozarks and southern Plains. Model guidance and observational trends suggest a gradual weakening of the entire complex is likely with southward extent this evening, related to the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of broader deep-layer ascent. Still, isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern AR and southern MO. To the west, new thunderstorm development across parts of south-central KS and northeastern OK will likely be the new focus for stronger storms on the flanks of the surging outflow tonight. Given the degree of buoyancy, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. One or more clusters of strong to occasionally severe storms are likely, and may persist into northern OK and southern KS tonight. ...Great Lakes to the upper Midwest... Isolated storm development remains possible this evening along trailing outflow and a weak cold front from southern WI to IA. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Still, remaining instability and moist surface conditions will promote occasional strong downdrafts this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the central/Southern Plains and Ozarks. More isolated severe storms are possible across the Great lakes and upper Midwest. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing from southern SD to eastern WY/CO and into western KS/NE. Moderate instability and elongated hodographs will continue to support supercells. Hail and damaging winds will remain likely this evening. With time, upscale growth into one or more larger clusters appears likely across the eastern CO Plains and western NE/KS. Modest forcing for ascent and effective shear suggest the degree of organization of any clusters that form is somewhat uncertain. Confidence in greater storm organization is highest across parts of KS/NE along the sagging cold front. Here, large buoyancy and locally stronger forcing may allow for more efficient upscale growth. Should a more organized MCS develop, a conditional risk for gusts upward of 75 mph is possible across parts of the central Plains tonight. ...Ozarks to central KS... An ongoing complex of thunderstorms with an established cold pool is likely to persist into this evening amidst a very buoyant (4000 J/kg MUCAPE) but weakly sheared air mass across the Ozarks and southern Plains. Model guidance and observational trends suggest a gradual weakening of the entire complex is likely with southward extent this evening, related to the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of broader deep-layer ascent. Still, isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern AR and southern MO. To the west, new thunderstorm development across parts of south-central KS and northeastern OK will likely be the new focus for stronger storms on the flanks of the surging outflow tonight. Given the degree of buoyancy, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. One or more clusters of strong to occasionally severe storms are likely, and may persist into northern OK and southern KS tonight. ...Great Lakes to the upper Midwest... Isolated storm development remains possible this evening along trailing outflow and a weak cold front from southern WI to IA. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Still, remaining instability and moist surface conditions will promote occasional strong downdrafts this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the central/Southern Plains and Ozarks. More isolated severe storms are possible across the Great lakes and upper Midwest. Wind is the primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing from southern SD to eastern WY/CO and into western KS/NE. Moderate instability and elongated hodographs will continue to support supercells. Hail and damaging winds will remain likely this evening. With time, upscale growth into one or more larger clusters appears likely across the eastern CO Plains and western NE/KS. Modest forcing for ascent and effective shear suggest the degree of organization of any clusters that form is somewhat uncertain. Confidence in greater storm organization is highest across parts of KS/NE along the sagging cold front. Here, large buoyancy and locally stronger forcing may allow for more efficient upscale growth. Should a more organized MCS develop, a conditional risk for gusts upward of 75 mph is possible across parts of the central Plains tonight. ...Ozarks to central KS... An ongoing complex of thunderstorms with an established cold pool is likely to persist into this evening amidst a very buoyant (4000 J/kg MUCAPE) but weakly sheared air mass across the Ozarks and southern Plains. Model guidance and observational trends suggest a gradual weakening of the entire complex is likely with southward extent this evening, related to the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of broader deep-layer ascent. Still, isolated damaging gusts remain possible across northern AR and southern MO. To the west, new thunderstorm development across parts of south-central KS and northeastern OK will likely be the new focus for stronger storms on the flanks of the surging outflow tonight. Given the degree of buoyancy, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. One or more clusters of strong to occasionally severe storms are likely, and may persist into northern OK and southern KS tonight. ...Great Lakes to the upper Midwest... Isolated storm development remains possible this evening along trailing outflow and a weak cold front from southern WI to IA. Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective organization is expected to be low. Still, remaining instability and moist surface conditions will promote occasional strong downdrafts this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EMP TO 25 SE GMJ. ..THOMPSON..06/30/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-049-099-125-205-300140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY WILSON OKC035-105-115-300140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG NOWATA OTTAWA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1515 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0544 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477... Valid 292244Z - 300015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development will remain possible along and south of an aggregate outflow boundary, but the threat for wind damage will become more marginal with time. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing along an aggregate outflow boundary that is moving slowly southward into southern WI. Vertical shear is quite weak and little storm organization/persistence is expected, but the stronger storms could still produce isolated wind damage given precipitation loading and steep low-level lapse rates along and south of the outflow. The limited severe threat appears to be covered by the current watch configuration, and no additional watches/extensions appear needed this evening. ..Thompson.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 42768932 42679043 42899109 43259105 43468968 43838870 44228804 44108781 43808802 43158875 42768932 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..06/30/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-031-039-069-073-075-087-095-115-121-123- 300140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD DENVER ELBERT LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-300140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-033-047-071-081-093-102-103-300140- Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LSE TO 35 WSW OSH TO 25 NE MTW. ..THOMPSON..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC015-021-023-025-027-039-043-045-047-049-065-071-103-111- 292240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC RICHLAND SAUK LMZ543-292240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more