Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians during the day and eventually into the Atlantic by the late evening. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front on Tuesday. Moderate instability is expected to develop across the region as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will only be around 20 knots across southern Virginia into the Carolinas. Therefore, while a few stronger storms may result in damaging wind gusts, overall storm organization is expected to be limited. From northern Virginia into the Northeast, stronger mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) will support greater storm organization. The best overlap between the sufficient shear and greatest instability will be across northern Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A very moist profile will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind producing microbursts. A more organized linear segment will likely result in a greater severe weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic region. A conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible farther northeast across Vermont/New Hampshire and vicinity. If 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE can develop across this region, more substantial severe weather is possible given the stronger shear and closer proximity to the surface low across southeast Canada. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians during the day and eventually into the Atlantic by the late evening. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front on Tuesday. Moderate instability is expected to develop across the region as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will only be around 20 knots across southern Virginia into the Carolinas. Therefore, while a few stronger storms may result in damaging wind gusts, overall storm organization is expected to be limited. From northern Virginia into the Northeast, stronger mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) will support greater storm organization. The best overlap between the sufficient shear and greatest instability will be across northern Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A very moist profile will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind producing microbursts. A more organized linear segment will likely result in a greater severe weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic region. A conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible farther northeast across Vermont/New Hampshire and vicinity. If 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE can develop across this region, more substantial severe weather is possible given the stronger shear and closer proximity to the surface low across southeast Canada. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians during the day and eventually into the Atlantic by the late evening. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front on Tuesday. Moderate instability is expected to develop across the region as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will only be around 20 knots across southern Virginia into the Carolinas. Therefore, while a few stronger storms may result in damaging wind gusts, overall storm organization is expected to be limited. From northern Virginia into the Northeast, stronger mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) will support greater storm organization. The best overlap between the sufficient shear and greatest instability will be across northern Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A very moist profile will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind producing microbursts. A more organized linear segment will likely result in a greater severe weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic region. A conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible farther northeast across Vermont/New Hampshire and vicinity. If 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE can develop across this region, more substantial severe weather is possible given the stronger shear and closer proximity to the surface low across southeast Canada. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians during the day and eventually into the Atlantic by the late evening. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front on Tuesday. Moderate instability is expected to develop across the region as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will only be around 20 knots across southern Virginia into the Carolinas. Therefore, while a few stronger storms may result in damaging wind gusts, overall storm organization is expected to be limited. From northern Virginia into the Northeast, stronger mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) will support greater storm organization. The best overlap between the sufficient shear and greatest instability will be across northern Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A very moist profile will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind producing microbursts. A more organized linear segment will likely result in a greater severe weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic region. A conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible farther northeast across Vermont/New Hampshire and vicinity. If 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE can develop across this region, more substantial severe weather is possible given the stronger shear and closer proximity to the surface low across southeast Canada. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians during the day and eventually into the Atlantic by the late evening. ...Carolinas to the Northeast... A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front on Tuesday. Moderate instability is expected to develop across the region as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will only be around 20 knots across southern Virginia into the Carolinas. Therefore, while a few stronger storms may result in damaging wind gusts, overall storm organization is expected to be limited. From northern Virginia into the Northeast, stronger mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) will support greater storm organization. The best overlap between the sufficient shear and greatest instability will be across northern Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A very moist profile will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind producing microbursts. A more organized linear segment will likely result in a greater severe weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic region. A conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible farther northeast across Vermont/New Hampshire and vicinity. If 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE can develop across this region, more substantial severe weather is possible given the stronger shear and closer proximity to the surface low across southeast Canada. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic today. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. To the west of the ridge, an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front with isolated damaging gusts and hail possible. ...Midwest and Great lakes... Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place from MO/IL into Lower MI. A messy surface pattern, with multiple remnant outflows and cloud debris will likely modulate diurnal heating to some degree through the early afternoon. With little inhibition, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon as ascent from the approaching upper trough overspreads the unstable air mass. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of strong pulse storms are likely. Weak mid-level flow and poor lapse rates suggests minimal potential for greater storm organization. Though high PWATS near 2 inches will support heavy water loading and microburst potential, with the stronger storms. ...OH valley to the Mid Atlantic... A similar pattern to the Midwest, with somewhat higher storm coverage, is expected from OH eastward into PA and the Mid Atlantic. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop by late morning amid strong surface heating ahead of a subtle shortwave trough over the OH valley. 20-30 kt of mid-level flow could support some clustering of storms by early afternoon. Despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km, the high PWAT air mass and some consolidation of outflows could support isolated damaging wind potential across eastern OH, southern NY into PA and the Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon ahead of sagging cold front from the TX Panhandle across the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Beneath the northern fringes of the building sub tropical high, strong heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg). Scattered thunderstorm development is likely ahead of the front, and along remnant outflows from overnight convection. Despite modest vertical wind shear, the large buoyancy may still support occasional strong to severe storms with the primary risk of damaging gusts and occasional hail. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper low over southern CA, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating, weak synoptic ascent and typical terrain-induced circulations will encourage scattered high-based thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from deep mixing of the boundary layer to near 500mb will favor strong downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and 20-30 kt of southerly shear, may also support marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 06/30/2025 Read more