Severe Storms

MD 1521 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1521 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300952Z - 301215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated potential for severe wind gusts may continue in parts of central and eastern Kansas over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Topeka shows a line of strong thunderstorms over north-central Kansas, which is located along the western edge of a pocket of moderate instability. Ahead of the line, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/Kg range, with about 30 knots of flow at 850 mb. In addition, a shortwave trough appears to be located from the Dakotas into the central Plains. This should provide support for continued convective development over the next few hours. The line recently produced a 59 mph wind gust at Russell, Kansas. Although an isolated wind-damage threat may continue with the more intense parts of the line, it is uncertain the extent of any severe risk going forward into the mid morning hours. ..Broyles/Smith.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39729679 39579637 39339593 39039571 38699572 38249601 37929671 37869775 38059870 38539883 39149841 39449791 39729729 39729679 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW RSL TO 60 WNW CNK TO 35 NNW CNK. ..BROYLES..06/30/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-123-141-301040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL MITCHELL OSBORNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 480 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 300450Z - 301100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 480 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Kansas Western and Central Nebraska * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1150 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Various forecast guidance suggests that storms should intensify, expand, and linearly organize into the overnight as they progress southeastward, potentially into an MCS with wind damage/some hail possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Mccook NE to 30 miles southeast of Hastings NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1520 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 480... FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...Northern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480... Valid 300658Z - 300900Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible over the next few hours across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing near a pocket of moderate instability from south-central Nebraska into northwest Kansas, where the RAP currently has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to the instability. RAP forecast soundings at 07Z near Hastings, Nebraska have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This should support a severe threat over the next few hours. Isolated supercells and short intense line segments will likely be capable of producing severe wind gusts and hail. The threat may become more isolated as instability decreases across the region late tonight. ..Broyles.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40679989 40030079 39540120 39320124 39100106 38970046 38969930 39249809 39629770 40329749 40869745 41249788 41359821 41339874 41299895 41079936 40679989 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday. This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the only potential for any severe weather during the extended period. However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather probabilities are not necessary at this time. Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period, thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday. This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the only potential for any severe weather during the extended period. However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather probabilities are not necessary at this time. Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period, thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday. This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the only potential for any severe weather during the extended period. However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather probabilities are not necessary at this time. Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period, thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday. This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the only potential for any severe weather during the extended period. However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather probabilities are not necessary at this time. Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period, thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday. This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the only potential for any severe weather during the extended period. However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather probabilities are not necessary at this time. Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period, thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday. This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the only potential for any severe weather during the extended period. However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather probabilities are not necessary at this time. Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period, thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday. This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the only potential for any severe weather during the extended period. However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather probabilities are not necessary at this time. Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period, thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday. This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the only potential for any severe weather during the extended period. However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather probabilities are not necessary at this time. Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period, thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday. This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the only potential for any severe weather during the extended period. However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather probabilities are not necessary at this time. Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period, thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization. Read more

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E GLD TO 30 NNE HLC TO 15 NNW EAR TO 20 E BUB. ..BROYLES..06/30/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC065-089-123-141-147-163-183-300940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRAHAM JEWELL MITCHELL OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS SMITH NEC001-019-035-059-061-079-081-093-099-121-129-169-181-300940- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FILLMORE FRANKLIN HALL HAMILTON HOWARD KEARNEY MERRICK NUCKOLLS THAYER WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MCK TO 45 NE MCK TO 5 ESE BBW TO 10 ESE BUB. ..BROYLES..06/30/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-065-089-123-137-141-147-163-183-300840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GRAHAM JEWELL MITCHELL NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS SMITH NEC001-019-035-047-059-061-063-065-073-079-081-083-093-099-121- 129-137-145-163-169-175-181-300840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY DAWSON FILLMORE FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER HALL HAMILTON HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY MERRICK NUCKOLLS PHELPS RED WILLOW SHERMAN THAYER VALLEY WEBSTER Read more

MD 1519 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...Central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300604Z - 300830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible over the next few hours across parts of central Oklahoma. The threat should remain localized, and weather watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar data from Oklahoma City shows a short line segment, with severe wind gusts in north-central Oklahoma. This line is moving southward along the western edge of a pocket of moderate instability into an area where surface dewpoints are near 70 F. There appears to be some support on water vapor imagery, from a shortwave trough extending southwestward from the Ozarks into the southern Plains. As the cold pool associated with the line moves southward into central Oklahoma over the next few hours, isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. The greatest wind-damage potential is expected to remain focused along the western edge of the ongoing convection that is currently draped across north-central and northeast Oklahoma. ..Broyles/Smith.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 34869717 34749775 34879831 35439851 35719847 35949840 36139810 36209770 36139729 35949704 35419695 34869717 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more