Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest, and this feature is forecast to move into the Great Lakes by tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. Farther west, an upper trough/low will meander slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific towards the CA coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states... A myriad of prior convective outflow in addition to the cold front will serve as foci for storm development today. Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture and heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization in areas void of persistent early day cloud debris. Small clusters and bands of storms may locally concentrate some damaging-wind threat, but predictability of these meso-beta corridors remains uncertain. Nonetheless, scattered storms will gradually progress east and southward during the day and through the evening across the Marginal Risk area. Strong to severe downdrafts will be the primary severe threat, but large hail may occur with a few storms over parts of the southern Plains where lapse rates/buoyancy are greater than areas farther northeast. The overall severe threat will likely remain tempered by weak to modest mid-level flow. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... Strong heating of an adequately moist airmass will result in appreciable buoyancy by peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms developing within an environment characterized by very steep lapse rates and inverted-v profiles, will support isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates and a deep, dry sub cloud layer will favor evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated 55-65 mph gusts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest, and this feature is forecast to move into the Great Lakes by tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. Farther west, an upper trough/low will meander slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific towards the CA coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states... A myriad of prior convective outflow in addition to the cold front will serve as foci for storm development today. Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture and heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization in areas void of persistent early day cloud debris. Small clusters and bands of storms may locally concentrate some damaging-wind threat, but predictability of these meso-beta corridors remains uncertain. Nonetheless, scattered storms will gradually progress east and southward during the day and through the evening across the Marginal Risk area. Strong to severe downdrafts will be the primary severe threat, but large hail may occur with a few storms over parts of the southern Plains where lapse rates/buoyancy are greater than areas farther northeast. The overall severe threat will likely remain tempered by weak to modest mid-level flow. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... Strong heating of an adequately moist airmass will result in appreciable buoyancy by peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms developing within an environment characterized by very steep lapse rates and inverted-v profiles, will support isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates and a deep, dry sub cloud layer will favor evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated 55-65 mph gusts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest, and this feature is forecast to move into the Great Lakes by tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. Farther west, an upper trough/low will meander slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific towards the CA coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states... A myriad of prior convective outflow in addition to the cold front will serve as foci for storm development today. Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture and heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization in areas void of persistent early day cloud debris. Small clusters and bands of storms may locally concentrate some damaging-wind threat, but predictability of these meso-beta corridors remains uncertain. Nonetheless, scattered storms will gradually progress east and southward during the day and through the evening across the Marginal Risk area. Strong to severe downdrafts will be the primary severe threat, but large hail may occur with a few storms over parts of the southern Plains where lapse rates/buoyancy are greater than areas farther northeast. The overall severe threat will likely remain tempered by weak to modest mid-level flow. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... Strong heating of an adequately moist airmass will result in appreciable buoyancy by peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms developing within an environment characterized by very steep lapse rates and inverted-v profiles, will support isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates and a deep, dry sub cloud layer will favor evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated 55-65 mph gusts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest, and this feature is forecast to move into the Great Lakes by tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. Farther west, an upper trough/low will meander slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific towards the CA coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states... A myriad of prior convective outflow in addition to the cold front will serve as foci for storm development today. Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture and heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization in areas void of persistent early day cloud debris. Small clusters and bands of storms may locally concentrate some damaging-wind threat, but predictability of these meso-beta corridors remains uncertain. Nonetheless, scattered storms will gradually progress east and southward during the day and through the evening across the Marginal Risk area. Strong to severe downdrafts will be the primary severe threat, but large hail may occur with a few storms over parts of the southern Plains where lapse rates/buoyancy are greater than areas farther northeast. The overall severe threat will likely remain tempered by weak to modest mid-level flow. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... Strong heating of an adequately moist airmass will result in appreciable buoyancy by peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms developing within an environment characterized by very steep lapse rates and inverted-v profiles, will support isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates and a deep, dry sub cloud layer will favor evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated 55-65 mph gusts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest, and this feature is forecast to move into the Great Lakes by tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. Farther west, an upper trough/low will meander slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific towards the CA coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states... A myriad of prior convective outflow in addition to the cold front will serve as foci for storm development today. Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture and heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization in areas void of persistent early day cloud debris. Small clusters and bands of storms may locally concentrate some damaging-wind threat, but predictability of these meso-beta corridors remains uncertain. Nonetheless, scattered storms will gradually progress east and southward during the day and through the evening across the Marginal Risk area. Strong to severe downdrafts will be the primary severe threat, but large hail may occur with a few storms over parts of the southern Plains where lapse rates/buoyancy are greater than areas farther northeast. The overall severe threat will likely remain tempered by weak to modest mid-level flow. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... Strong heating of an adequately moist airmass will result in appreciable buoyancy by peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms developing within an environment characterized by very steep lapse rates and inverted-v profiles, will support isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates and a deep, dry sub cloud layer will favor evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated 55-65 mph gusts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest, and this feature is forecast to move into the Great Lakes by tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. Farther west, an upper trough/low will meander slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific towards the CA coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states... A myriad of prior convective outflow in addition to the cold front will serve as foci for storm development today. Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture and heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization in areas void of persistent early day cloud debris. Small clusters and bands of storms may locally concentrate some damaging-wind threat, but predictability of these meso-beta corridors remains uncertain. Nonetheless, scattered storms will gradually progress east and southward during the day and through the evening across the Marginal Risk area. Strong to severe downdrafts will be the primary severe threat, but large hail may occur with a few storms over parts of the southern Plains where lapse rates/buoyancy are greater than areas farther northeast. The overall severe threat will likely remain tempered by weak to modest mid-level flow. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... Strong heating of an adequately moist airmass will result in appreciable buoyancy by peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms developing within an environment characterized by very steep lapse rates and inverted-v profiles, will support isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates and a deep, dry sub cloud layer will favor evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated 55-65 mph gusts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest, and this feature is forecast to move into the Great Lakes by tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. Farther west, an upper trough/low will meander slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific towards the CA coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states... A myriad of prior convective outflow in addition to the cold front will serve as foci for storm development today. Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture and heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization in areas void of persistent early day cloud debris. Small clusters and bands of storms may locally concentrate some damaging-wind threat, but predictability of these meso-beta corridors remains uncertain. Nonetheless, scattered storms will gradually progress east and southward during the day and through the evening across the Marginal Risk area. Strong to severe downdrafts will be the primary severe threat, but large hail may occur with a few storms over parts of the southern Plains where lapse rates/buoyancy are greater than areas farther northeast. The overall severe threat will likely remain tempered by weak to modest mid-level flow. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... Strong heating of an adequately moist airmass will result in appreciable buoyancy by peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms developing within an environment characterized by very steep lapse rates and inverted-v profiles, will support isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates and a deep, dry sub cloud layer will favor evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated 55-65 mph gusts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest, and this feature is forecast to move into the Great Lakes by tonight. At the same time, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north. Farther west, an upper trough/low will meander slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific towards the CA coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag southward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states... A myriad of prior convective outflow in addition to the cold front will serve as foci for storm development today. Ahead of the slow-moving cold front, rich low-level moisture and heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization in areas void of persistent early day cloud debris. Small clusters and bands of storms may locally concentrate some damaging-wind threat, but predictability of these meso-beta corridors remains uncertain. Nonetheless, scattered storms will gradually progress east and southward during the day and through the evening across the Marginal Risk area. Strong to severe downdrafts will be the primary severe threat, but large hail may occur with a few storms over parts of the southern Plains where lapse rates/buoyancy are greater than areas farther northeast. The overall severe threat will likely remain tempered by weak to modest mid-level flow. ...Southwest NM and far southeast AZ... Strong heating of an adequately moist airmass will result in appreciable buoyancy by peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms developing within an environment characterized by very steep lapse rates and inverted-v profiles, will support isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern CA into southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates and a deep, dry sub cloud layer will favor evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of isolated 55-65 mph gusts. ..Smith/Broyles.. 06/30/2025 Read more

MD 1521 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1521 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300952Z - 301215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated potential for severe wind gusts may continue in parts of central and eastern Kansas over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Topeka shows a line of strong thunderstorms over north-central Kansas, which is located along the western edge of a pocket of moderate instability. Ahead of the line, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/Kg range, with about 30 knots of flow at 850 mb. In addition, a shortwave trough appears to be located from the Dakotas into the central Plains. This should provide support for continued convective development over the next few hours. The line recently produced a 59 mph wind gust at Russell, Kansas. Although an isolated wind-damage threat may continue with the more intense parts of the line, it is uncertain the extent of any severe risk going forward into the mid morning hours. ..Broyles/Smith.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39729679 39579637 39339593 39039571 38699572 38249601 37929671 37869775 38059870 38539883 39149841 39449791 39729729 39729679 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW RSL TO 60 WNW CNK TO 35 NNW CNK. ..BROYLES..06/30/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-123-141-301040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL MITCHELL OSBORNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 480 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 300450Z - 301100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 480 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Kansas Western and Central Nebraska * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1150 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Various forecast guidance suggests that storms should intensify, expand, and linearly organize into the overnight as they progress southeastward, potentially into an MCS with wind damage/some hail possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Mccook NE to 30 miles southeast of Hastings NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1520 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 480... FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...Northern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480... Valid 300658Z - 300900Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible over the next few hours across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing near a pocket of moderate instability from south-central Nebraska into northwest Kansas, where the RAP currently has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to the instability. RAP forecast soundings at 07Z near Hastings, Nebraska have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This should support a severe threat over the next few hours. Isolated supercells and short intense line segments will likely be capable of producing severe wind gusts and hail. The threat may become more isolated as instability decreases across the region late tonight. ..Broyles.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40679989 40030079 39540120 39320124 39100106 38970046 38969930 39249809 39629770 40329749 40869745 41249788 41359821 41339874 41299895 41079936 40679989 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday. This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the only potential for any severe weather during the extended period. However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather probabilities are not necessary at this time. Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period, thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday. This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the only potential for any severe weather during the extended period. However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather probabilities are not necessary at this time. Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period, thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization. Read more