Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more

MD 1525 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1525 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...northern MO and central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301906Z - 302100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts and small hail will be possible with storms developing along a cold front and sagging southeast into early evening. DISCUSSION...Gradual convective development has been underway along the trailing portion of a weak southwest/northeast-oriented cold front, ahead of a minor MCV over the northern KC Metro Area. Somewhat greater boundary-layer heating has occurred ahead of the IL portion of the front, which may aid in strong gust potential later as storm coverage increases along the front. Low to mid-level wind profiles are decidedly weak and westerly ahead of the MCV per area VWPs. As such, organizational potential appears rather limited. Pulse-type wet microbursts and loose clustering should pose a risk of localized strong gusts. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... LAT...LON 39149417 39569440 39769370 40029241 40279137 40649023 40748989 41158812 41118779 40788779 39938852 39308983 39189167 39209243 39149417 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more