Severe Storms

MD 1527 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1527 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of central/southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302101Z - 302230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms expected in the next 1-2 hours, with a risk for at least isolated damaging winds/severe hail. Watch issuance not anticipated but conditions will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a zone of rapidly developing convection along a residual outflow boundary across central/southwest Oklahoma. Additional convection is now deepening across parts of northwest Texas. Rich low-level moisture (70s+ Tds) and surface temperatures into the low 90s are contributing to a very unstable environment south of the boundary, characterized by MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg. The expectation is for scattered storms to develop along this corridor in the next 1-2 hours, posing a risk for at least isolated damaging wind gusts and severe hail. At this time, watch issuance is not anticipated though convective trends will be closely monitored should a watch be needed. ..Karstens/Hart.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 35009602 34469706 33869797 33009923 32890003 33490052 34599918 35419803 35819668 35659595 35009602 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... An incoming mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest and subsequent lee trough deepening across eastern Washington State will promote stronger onshore flow into the region for Day 3/Wednesday. Enhanced gap winds into the Columbia Basin and dry, downslope flow east of the Cascades should support a fire weather threat where dry fuels exist. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain of eastern Nevada, southwestern/central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. This fire weather threat is primarily along the western periphery of deeper monsoon moisture moving into the greater Four Corners region. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... Fire weather concerns will continue to be concentrated across the portions of the Great Basin and Southwest for the latter part of the week as another mid-level short wave trough moves into the region. The thunderstorm threat is also present as the trough interacts with residual monsoon moisture although considerable timing and amplitude uncertainty precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities for Day 4-5/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday... An upper-level ridge shifts eastward into the eastern U.S. by the weekend while a broad, dry southwest flow pattern infiltrates into western U.S. Monsoon moisture, and general diurnal thunderstorm development is expected to shift eastward along and east of the Continental Divide, limiting the dry thunderstorm threat. Timing and magnitude of mid-level short waves within the overall southwest flow pattern precludes introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of central/southern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302003Z - 302200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar shows a few areas of robust, terrain-driven convection, mainly across central/northern portions of New Mexico with some merging of convection beginning to occur. These storms initiated amid strong morning insolation and sufficient boundary layer moisture for destabilization, characterized by dew point temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s F. These conditions have led to MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg and strong low-level lapse rates, exceeding 8-9 C in most areas. Storms are expected to continue merging and gradually move off the high terrain and drift south with time. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. ..Karstens/Hart.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 33160872 33580892 34060861 34920790 35670636 35630556 34570533 33000560 32580595 32390702 32730821 33160872 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...20Z Update... Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. Read more