Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Northern California into Oregon... Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of northern California into much of southern and central Oregon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra Nevada. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona... Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few of the stronger storms could become severe. ...Portions of the Northern Rockies... The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday. Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025 Read more

MD 1524 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1524 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma and northern/western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301735Z - 301900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts along with some severe hail with the strongest cells. DISCUSSION...Scattered convection is developing along the eastern periphery of a remnant west-east oriented outflow boundary draped across portions of east-central Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Clear skies ahead of the boundary this morning amid a rich low-level moisture environment has led to rapid destabilization, with MLCAPE values approach 2500 J/kg. Weak flow aloft should limit storm organization, but some clustering of storms may occur with time during the afternoon as additional storms continue to develop along/near the boundary. Isolated damaging winds should be the primary threat, along with some potential for severe hail with the strongest cells. ..Karstens/Hart.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34669677 35309540 35749409 36289308 36329221 35639183 34849221 34149319 33869481 33999630 34309672 34669677 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1523 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN/SOUTHERN LOWER MI TO NORTHEAST IN AND NORTHWEST OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1523 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Areas affected...eastern/southern Lower MI to northeast IN and northwest OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301646Z - 301845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms may pose a risk for localized damaging winds and small hail through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Along a weak cold front, a broken line of thunderstorms is bisecting Lower MI into far northern IN. Airmass immediately downstream has warmed into the low to mid 80s, with heating slowed farther east in the wake of an MCV over north-central/northeast OH. Moist low-levels amid weak mid/upper-level rates, combined with generally weak to modest low/mid-level shear, should serve to mitigate the overall severe threat. Small hail production is possible with some speed shear in the upper portion of the buoyancy profile. Locally strong gusts in wet microbursts should be the main hazard, but that will likely be modulated by the sub-optimal thermodynamic environment. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42898235 41418339 40958489 41128589 41538595 42998463 44028407 44798361 44928319 44408262 42898235 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more