Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...Northern California and Southwestern Oregon... An approaching mid-level trough, steep low-level lapse rates and increasing mid-level moisture and instability will aid a mix of wet/dry thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of northern California, with showers and thunderstorms propagating into southern Oregon along and east of the Cascades through this evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights persist where new ignitions are possible atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough entering California and associated stronger southerly mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin today. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will facilitate gusty surface winds from the south of up to 25 mph across central Nevada, with sustained winds of around 15 mph. The enhanced winds along with low relative humidity will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...Northern California and Southwestern Oregon... An approaching mid-level trough, steep low-level lapse rates and increasing mid-level moisture and instability will aid a mix of wet/dry thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of northern California, with showers and thunderstorms propagating into southern Oregon along and east of the Cascades through this evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights persist where new ignitions are possible atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough entering California and associated stronger southerly mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin today. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will facilitate gusty surface winds from the south of up to 25 mph across central Nevada, with sustained winds of around 15 mph. The enhanced winds along with low relative humidity will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...Northern California and Southwestern Oregon... An approaching mid-level trough, steep low-level lapse rates and increasing mid-level moisture and instability will aid a mix of wet/dry thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of northern California, with showers and thunderstorms propagating into southern Oregon along and east of the Cascades through this evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights persist where new ignitions are possible atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough entering California and associated stronger southerly mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin today. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will facilitate gusty surface winds from the south of up to 25 mph across central Nevada, with sustained winds of around 15 mph. The enhanced winds along with low relative humidity will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...Northern California and Southwestern Oregon... An approaching mid-level trough, steep low-level lapse rates and increasing mid-level moisture and instability will aid a mix of wet/dry thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of northern California, with showers and thunderstorms propagating into southern Oregon along and east of the Cascades through this evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights persist where new ignitions are possible atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough entering California and associated stronger southerly mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin today. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will facilitate gusty surface winds from the south of up to 25 mph across central Nevada, with sustained winds of around 15 mph. The enhanced winds along with low relative humidity will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...Northern California and Southwestern Oregon... An approaching mid-level trough, steep low-level lapse rates and increasing mid-level moisture and instability will aid a mix of wet/dry thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of northern California, with showers and thunderstorms propagating into southern Oregon along and east of the Cascades through this evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights persist where new ignitions are possible atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough entering California and associated stronger southerly mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin today. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will facilitate gusty surface winds from the south of up to 25 mph across central Nevada, with sustained winds of around 15 mph. The enhanced winds along with low relative humidity will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...Northern California and Southwestern Oregon... An approaching mid-level trough, steep low-level lapse rates and increasing mid-level moisture and instability will aid a mix of wet/dry thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of northern California, with showers and thunderstorms propagating into southern Oregon along and east of the Cascades through this evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights persist where new ignitions are possible atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough entering California and associated stronger southerly mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin today. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will facilitate gusty surface winds from the south of up to 25 mph across central Nevada, with sustained winds of around 15 mph. The enhanced winds along with low relative humidity will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...Northern California and Southwestern Oregon... An approaching mid-level trough, steep low-level lapse rates and increasing mid-level moisture and instability will aid a mix of wet/dry thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of northern California, with showers and thunderstorms propagating into southern Oregon along and east of the Cascades through this evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights persist where new ignitions are possible atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough entering California and associated stronger southerly mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin today. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will facilitate gusty surface winds from the south of up to 25 mph across central Nevada, with sustained winds of around 15 mph. The enhanced winds along with low relative humidity will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...Northern California and Southwestern Oregon... An approaching mid-level trough, steep low-level lapse rates and increasing mid-level moisture and instability will aid a mix of wet/dry thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of northern California, with showers and thunderstorms propagating into southern Oregon along and east of the Cascades through this evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights persist where new ignitions are possible atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough entering California and associated stronger southerly mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin today. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will facilitate gusty surface winds from the south of up to 25 mph across central Nevada, with sustained winds of around 15 mph. The enhanced winds along with low relative humidity will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...Northern California and Southwestern Oregon... An approaching mid-level trough, steep low-level lapse rates and increasing mid-level moisture and instability will aid a mix of wet/dry thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of northern California, with showers and thunderstorms propagating into southern Oregon along and east of the Cascades through this evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights persist where new ignitions are possible atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough entering California and associated stronger southerly mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin today. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will facilitate gusty surface winds from the south of up to 25 mph across central Nevada, with sustained winds of around 15 mph. The enhanced winds along with low relative humidity will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...Northern California and Southwestern Oregon... An approaching mid-level trough, steep low-level lapse rates and increasing mid-level moisture and instability will aid a mix of wet/dry thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of northern California, with showers and thunderstorms propagating into southern Oregon along and east of the Cascades through this evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights persist where new ignitions are possible atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough entering California and associated stronger southerly mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin today. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will facilitate gusty surface winds from the south of up to 25 mph across central Nevada, with sustained winds of around 15 mph. The enhanced winds along with low relative humidity will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...Northern California and Southwestern Oregon... An approaching mid-level trough, steep low-level lapse rates and increasing mid-level moisture and instability will aid a mix of wet/dry thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of northern California, with showers and thunderstorms propagating into southern Oregon along and east of the Cascades through this evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights persist where new ignitions are possible atop dry fuels. ...Great Basin... The mid-level trough entering California and associated stronger southerly mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin today. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will facilitate gusty surface winds from the south of up to 25 mph across central Nevada, with sustained winds of around 15 mph. The enhanced winds along with low relative humidity will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 06/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern Oregon and northern California today. ...Southern OK/Northwest TX... Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon, propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization. However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail will also be possible in the strongest updrafts. ...PA/NY... A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Refer to MCD #1522 for further details. ...NM/Southeast AZ... Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind gusts in some of this activity. ...Upper MI/WI... A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI. Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms. ...Northern CA/Southern OR... Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast, southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025 Read more