Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas. ...Discussion... Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast. Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe given relatively limited elevated instability. Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains questionable. ..Bentley.. 06/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT, while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions over the Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low, coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the Cascades to the OR/ID border. Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains, keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low, breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the Northwest and Great Basin today. ...Northwest... Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes. Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are possible. ...Great Basin... Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential through this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more