Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few weak thunderstorms will be possible from southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico overnight. ...Discussion... Lift associated with a shortwave trough may result in a few weak thunderstorms tonight from southeast AZ into southwest NM, as midlevel moistening occurs. Forecast soundings depict steep midlevel lapse rates, but generally weak winds below 500 mb as the area will be well north of the midlevel jet. The lift and increasing midlevel RH will counteract the loss of diurnal heating, possibly leading to scattered showers and isolated lightning flashes. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few weak thunderstorms will be possible from southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico overnight. ...Discussion... Lift associated with a shortwave trough may result in a few weak thunderstorms tonight from southeast AZ into southwest NM, as midlevel moistening occurs. Forecast soundings depict steep midlevel lapse rates, but generally weak winds below 500 mb as the area will be well north of the midlevel jet. The lift and increasing midlevel RH will counteract the loss of diurnal heating, possibly leading to scattered showers and isolated lightning flashes. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few weak thunderstorms will be possible from southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico overnight. ...Discussion... Lift associated with a shortwave trough may result in a few weak thunderstorms tonight from southeast AZ into southwest NM, as midlevel moistening occurs. Forecast soundings depict steep midlevel lapse rates, but generally weak winds below 500 mb as the area will be well north of the midlevel jet. The lift and increasing midlevel RH will counteract the loss of diurnal heating, possibly leading to scattered showers and isolated lightning flashes. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 1 22:24:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 1 22:24:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D3 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D4 Thursday - D5 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D6 - Saturday through D8 - Sunday. Fuels across the southern Plains will experience drying with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D3 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D4 Thursday - D5 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D6 - Saturday through D8 - Sunday. Fuels across the southern Plains will experience drying with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D3 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D4 Thursday - D5 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D6 - Saturday through D8 - Sunday. Fuels across the southern Plains will experience drying with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D3 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D4 Thursday - D5 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D6 - Saturday through D8 - Sunday. Fuels across the southern Plains will experience drying with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D3 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D4 Thursday - D5 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D6 - Saturday through D8 - Sunday. Fuels across the southern Plains will experience drying with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more