Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A moderately amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS on Sunday, with mid/upper-level troughs moving generally eastward over the Northeast States and Pacific Northwest/Great Basin, while a slower-moving southern-stream cutoff low moves across the southern High Plains. A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across central/southern Florida, in addition to clearing coastal southern New England early in the day. A marginal thermodynamic environment will support a low potential for thunderstorms (near 10 percent) in both of these regions near the front. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, where steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-advancing upper trough will support isolated low-topped thunderstorms. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A moderately amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS on Sunday, with mid/upper-level troughs moving generally eastward over the Northeast States and Pacific Northwest/Great Basin, while a slower-moving southern-stream cutoff low moves across the southern High Plains. A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across central/southern Florida, in addition to clearing coastal southern New England early in the day. A marginal thermodynamic environment will support a low potential for thunderstorms (near 10 percent) in both of these regions near the front. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, where steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-advancing upper trough will support isolated low-topped thunderstorms. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A moderately amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS on Sunday, with mid/upper-level troughs moving generally eastward over the Northeast States and Pacific Northwest/Great Basin, while a slower-moving southern-stream cutoff low moves across the southern High Plains. A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across central/southern Florida, in addition to clearing coastal southern New England early in the day. A marginal thermodynamic environment will support a low potential for thunderstorms (near 10 percent) in both of these regions near the front. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, where steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-advancing upper trough will support isolated low-topped thunderstorms. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A moderately amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS on Sunday, with mid/upper-level troughs moving generally eastward over the Northeast States and Pacific Northwest/Great Basin, while a slower-moving southern-stream cutoff low moves across the southern High Plains. A cold front will continue to progress southeastward across central/southern Florida, in addition to clearing coastal southern New England early in the day. A marginal thermodynamic environment will support a low potential for thunderstorms (near 10 percent) in both of these regions near the front. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, where steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-advancing upper trough will support isolated low-topped thunderstorms. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Southeast... An extensive swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across parts of GA/SC to the northeast of deeper convection that extends towards the central Gulf Coast. This ongoing activity will play a pivotal role in the overall severe threat in terms of both magnitude and timing. Latest guidance has generally trended towards more probable deep convection evolving east from the central Gulf Coast vicinity across parts of north FL and south GA during the morning to afternoon. This should occur as greater diurnal surface heating ensues ahead of it over the FL Peninsula. Low-level hodographs will be enlarged early with a gradual weakening trend into the afternoon as flow becomes veered and wanes. As such, a relative peak in the tornado/wind threat may occur during the late morning to early afternoon. Farther north into the Carolinas, the severe threat appears conditional on sufficient destabilization in the wake of the extensive rain swath shifting east-northeast through this morning. Guidance is insistent that at least weak surface-based instability should develop by afternoon. But with the likelihood of deep convection persisting in south GA/north FL, and recent observational trends, MLCAPE should tend to be rather limited. Still, with appreciable mid-level height falls and strong low to deep-layer shear, the conditional setup could favor a few low-topped supercells in the afternoon with a tornado/localized wind threat. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/09/2024 Read more

MD 0208 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 090144Z - 090415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area across southeastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle will be monitored for potential severe risk later this evening into the early morning. DISCUSSION...A large area of ongoing convection along a stationary front draped across the Gulf northward into portions of southern Mississippi and southern/central Alabama has struggled to organize this evening given the poor thermodynamic profiles as the warm sector has struggled to advance inland. Dew points are largely in the mid -60s along the immediate coast of Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. Shear profiles have remained supportive of more organized convection but forcing along the stationary boundary in tandem with the main upper level wave has led to multi-cell clusters with transient embedded rotation. Through the rest of the evening/early morning, this area of convection is expected to move east and northeast. CAMs continue to indicate the possibility of addition thunderstorm development overnight, with potential for more discrete supercell development as better moisture works inland. Given the favorable shear profiles, with effective SRH around 200-300 m2/s2, it is possible that an isolated tornado risk could persist into the early morning. Given uncertainty on thermodynamics and redevelopment/storm mode, this area will need to be monitored for watch potential in the coming hours. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30578491 30238627 30248779 30488789 30868793 31518729 31758698 32038623 32088559 32108514 32118486 31988458 31748441 31288445 30938450 30688457 30578491 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds may persist overnight from the central Gulf Coast northeast across parts of south Alabama to central Georgia. ...Central Gulf Coast to central GA... Extensive, non-severe convection is ongoing across most of the region across a southwest to northeast-oriented quasi-stationary front. Rather rich Gulf moisture (characterized by 2"+ PW values per the 00Z LIX sounding) will continue to advect northeast and maintain a conditionally favorable warm sector for nocturnal tornado potential. Inland penetration of instability amid weak mid-level lapse rates will remain tempered, with MLCAPE at or above 500 J/kg likely only reaching into parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests regenerative convection may be reinvigorated overnight, initiating across the central Gulf Coast and spreading northeast along the baroclinic zone. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift east-northeast with time, further confining the low-probability tornado/wind threat in the early morning. ..Grams.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds may persist overnight from the central Gulf Coast northeast across parts of south Alabama to central Georgia. ...Central Gulf Coast to central GA... Extensive, non-severe convection is ongoing across most of the region across a southwest to northeast-oriented quasi-stationary front. Rather rich Gulf moisture (characterized by 2"+ PW values per the 00Z LIX sounding) will continue to advect northeast and maintain a conditionally favorable warm sector for nocturnal tornado potential. Inland penetration of instability amid weak mid-level lapse rates will remain tempered, with MLCAPE at or above 500 J/kg likely only reaching into parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests regenerative convection may be reinvigorated overnight, initiating across the central Gulf Coast and spreading northeast along the baroclinic zone. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift east-northeast with time, further confining the low-probability tornado/wind threat in the early morning. ..Grams.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds may persist overnight from the central Gulf Coast northeast across parts of south Alabama to central Georgia. ...Central Gulf Coast to central GA... Extensive, non-severe convection is ongoing across most of the region across a southwest to northeast-oriented quasi-stationary front. Rather rich Gulf moisture (characterized by 2"+ PW values per the 00Z LIX sounding) will continue to advect northeast and maintain a conditionally favorable warm sector for nocturnal tornado potential. Inland penetration of instability amid weak mid-level lapse rates will remain tempered, with MLCAPE at or above 500 J/kg likely only reaching into parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests regenerative convection may be reinvigorated overnight, initiating across the central Gulf Coast and spreading northeast along the baroclinic zone. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift east-northeast with time, further confining the low-probability tornado/wind threat in the early morning. ..Grams.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds may persist overnight from the central Gulf Coast northeast across parts of south Alabama to central Georgia. ...Central Gulf Coast to central GA... Extensive, non-severe convection is ongoing across most of the region across a southwest to northeast-oriented quasi-stationary front. Rather rich Gulf moisture (characterized by 2"+ PW values per the 00Z LIX sounding) will continue to advect northeast and maintain a conditionally favorable warm sector for nocturnal tornado potential. Inland penetration of instability amid weak mid-level lapse rates will remain tempered, with MLCAPE at or above 500 J/kg likely only reaching into parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests regenerative convection may be reinvigorated overnight, initiating across the central Gulf Coast and spreading northeast along the baroclinic zone. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift east-northeast with time, further confining the low-probability tornado/wind threat in the early morning. ..Grams.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds may persist overnight from the central Gulf Coast northeast across parts of south Alabama to central Georgia. ...Central Gulf Coast to central GA... Extensive, non-severe convection is ongoing across most of the region across a southwest to northeast-oriented quasi-stationary front. Rather rich Gulf moisture (characterized by 2"+ PW values per the 00Z LIX sounding) will continue to advect northeast and maintain a conditionally favorable warm sector for nocturnal tornado potential. Inland penetration of instability amid weak mid-level lapse rates will remain tempered, with MLCAPE at or above 500 J/kg likely only reaching into parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests regenerative convection may be reinvigorated overnight, initiating across the central Gulf Coast and spreading northeast along the baroclinic zone. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift east-northeast with time, further confining the low-probability tornado/wind threat in the early morning. ..Grams.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Potential for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds may persist overnight from the central Gulf Coast northeast across parts of south Alabama to central Georgia. ...Central Gulf Coast to central GA... Extensive, non-severe convection is ongoing across most of the region across a southwest to northeast-oriented quasi-stationary front. Rather rich Gulf moisture (characterized by 2"+ PW values per the 00Z LIX sounding) will continue to advect northeast and maintain a conditionally favorable warm sector for nocturnal tornado potential. Inland penetration of instability amid weak mid-level lapse rates will remain tempered, with MLCAPE at or above 500 J/kg likely only reaching into parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests regenerative convection may be reinvigorated overnight, initiating across the central Gulf Coast and spreading northeast along the baroclinic zone. Stronger low-level flow/shear will gradually shift east-northeast with time, further confining the low-probability tornado/wind threat in the early morning. ..Grams.. 03/09/2024 Read more