Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As upper trough amplification occurs over the West, low-level moisture return will ensue across the southern Plains and ArkLaTex through the early/mid part of the week including Days 4/5 Tuesday/Wednesday. Little severe potential is currently expected on Day 4/Tuesday. However, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms will probably exist on Day 5/Wednesday near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, northeastward along the synoptic front across the lower Missouri Valley/Midwest. Lingering uncertainties regarding initial moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time for Wednesday. A somewhat higher probability (15 percent) severe potential is perceived for Day 6/Thursday, particularly across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. This will be well ahead of the Southwest States upper low, with moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk may expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 7/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As upper trough amplification occurs over the West, low-level moisture return will ensue across the southern Plains and ArkLaTex through the early/mid part of the week including Days 4/5 Tuesday/Wednesday. Little severe potential is currently expected on Day 4/Tuesday. However, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms will probably exist on Day 5/Wednesday near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, northeastward along the synoptic front across the lower Missouri Valley/Midwest. Lingering uncertainties regarding initial moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time for Wednesday. A somewhat higher probability (15 percent) severe potential is perceived for Day 6/Thursday, particularly across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. This will be well ahead of the Southwest States upper low, with moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk may expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 7/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As upper trough amplification occurs over the West, low-level moisture return will ensue across the southern Plains and ArkLaTex through the early/mid part of the week including Days 4/5 Tuesday/Wednesday. Little severe potential is currently expected on Day 4/Tuesday. However, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms will probably exist on Day 5/Wednesday near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, northeastward along the synoptic front across the lower Missouri Valley/Midwest. Lingering uncertainties regarding initial moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time for Wednesday. A somewhat higher probability (15 percent) severe potential is perceived for Day 6/Thursday, particularly across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. This will be well ahead of the Southwest States upper low, with moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk may expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 7/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As upper trough amplification occurs over the West, low-level moisture return will ensue across the southern Plains and ArkLaTex through the early/mid part of the week including Days 4/5 Tuesday/Wednesday. Little severe potential is currently expected on Day 4/Tuesday. However, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms will probably exist on Day 5/Wednesday near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, northeastward along the synoptic front across the lower Missouri Valley/Midwest. Lingering uncertainties regarding initial moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time for Wednesday. A somewhat higher probability (15 percent) severe potential is perceived for Day 6/Thursday, particularly across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. This will be well ahead of the Southwest States upper low, with moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk may expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 7/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As upper trough amplification occurs over the West, low-level moisture return will ensue across the southern Plains and ArkLaTex through the early/mid part of the week including Days 4/5 Tuesday/Wednesday. Little severe potential is currently expected on Day 4/Tuesday. However, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms will probably exist on Day 5/Wednesday near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, northeastward along the synoptic front across the lower Missouri Valley/Midwest. Lingering uncertainties regarding initial moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time for Wednesday. A somewhat higher probability (15 percent) severe potential is perceived for Day 6/Thursday, particularly across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. This will be well ahead of the Southwest States upper low, with moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk may expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 7/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As upper trough amplification occurs over the West, low-level moisture return will ensue across the southern Plains and ArkLaTex through the early/mid part of the week including Days 4/5 Tuesday/Wednesday. Little severe potential is currently expected on Day 4/Tuesday. However, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms will probably exist on Day 5/Wednesday near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, northeastward along the synoptic front across the lower Missouri Valley/Midwest. Lingering uncertainties regarding initial moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time for Wednesday. A somewhat higher probability (15 percent) severe potential is perceived for Day 6/Thursday, particularly across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. This will be well ahead of the Southwest States upper low, with moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk may expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 7/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As upper trough amplification occurs over the West, low-level moisture return will ensue across the southern Plains and ArkLaTex through the early/mid part of the week including Days 4/5 Tuesday/Wednesday. Little severe potential is currently expected on Day 4/Tuesday. However, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms will probably exist on Day 5/Wednesday near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, northeastward along the synoptic front across the lower Missouri Valley/Midwest. Lingering uncertainties regarding initial moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time for Wednesday. A somewhat higher probability (15 percent) severe potential is perceived for Day 6/Thursday, particularly across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. This will be well ahead of the Southwest States upper low, with moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk may expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 7/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As upper trough amplification occurs over the West, low-level moisture return will ensue across the southern Plains and ArkLaTex through the early/mid part of the week including Days 4/5 Tuesday/Wednesday. Little severe potential is currently expected on Day 4/Tuesday. However, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms will probably exist on Day 5/Wednesday near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, northeastward along the synoptic front across the lower Missouri Valley/Midwest. Lingering uncertainties regarding initial moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time for Wednesday. A somewhat higher probability (15 percent) severe potential is perceived for Day 6/Thursday, particularly across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. This will be well ahead of the Southwest States upper low, with moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk may expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 7/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As upper trough amplification occurs over the West, low-level moisture return will ensue across the southern Plains and ArkLaTex through the early/mid part of the week including Days 4/5 Tuesday/Wednesday. Little severe potential is currently expected on Day 4/Tuesday. However, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms will probably exist on Day 5/Wednesday near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, northeastward along the synoptic front across the lower Missouri Valley/Midwest. Lingering uncertainties regarding initial moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time for Wednesday. A somewhat higher probability (15 percent) severe potential is perceived for Day 6/Thursday, particularly across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. This will be well ahead of the Southwest States upper low, with moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk may expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 7/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will prevail over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. Increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-spreading upper trough over the Pacific Northwest could yield a few thunderstorms across the region, with little if any thunderstorm potential elsewhere. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will prevail over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. Increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-spreading upper trough over the Pacific Northwest could yield a few thunderstorms across the region, with little if any thunderstorm potential elsewhere. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will prevail over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. Increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-spreading upper trough over the Pacific Northwest could yield a few thunderstorms across the region, with little if any thunderstorm potential elsewhere. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will prevail over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. Increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-spreading upper trough over the Pacific Northwest could yield a few thunderstorms across the region, with little if any thunderstorm potential elsewhere. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will prevail over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. Increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-spreading upper trough over the Pacific Northwest could yield a few thunderstorms across the region, with little if any thunderstorm potential elsewhere. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will prevail over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. Increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-spreading upper trough over the Pacific Northwest could yield a few thunderstorms across the region, with little if any thunderstorm potential elsewhere. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will prevail over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. Increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-spreading upper trough over the Pacific Northwest could yield a few thunderstorms across the region, with little if any thunderstorm potential elsewhere. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will prevail over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. Increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-spreading upper trough over the Pacific Northwest could yield a few thunderstorms across the region, with little if any thunderstorm potential elsewhere. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will prevail over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. Increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-spreading upper trough over the Pacific Northwest could yield a few thunderstorms across the region, with little if any thunderstorm potential elsewhere. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will prevail over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. Increasing moisture and steepening lapse rates associated with an inland-spreading upper trough over the Pacific Northwest could yield a few thunderstorms across the region, with little if any thunderstorm potential elsewhere. ..Guyer.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward on Sunday as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ..Thornton.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more