Severe Storms

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LCH...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-025-097-129-082240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CLARKE MOBILE WASHINGTON LAC001-005-007-033-037-045-047-051-055-063-071-077-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-113-117-121-125-082240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA Read more

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0032 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0205 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Areas affected...parts of the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081849Z - 082045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two should slowly increase through the afternoon. Confidence in storm evolution is low, but the increase in severe risk may warrant weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...As of 1845 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis showed a complex convective regime across parts of the lower MS valley and central Gulf Coast. A cluster of mostly elevated thunderstorms residing along a composite outflow/warm front across southern MS into southwest AL has shown occasional strengthening early this afternoon. A relatively broad warm sector to the south of the outflow has allowed for sporadic discrete thunderstorm initiation across southern LA within the last hour. With limited inhibition and 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE from the 18z LIX sounding/SPC mesoanalysis, thunderstorms could gradually intensify within the warm sector. Deep-layer shear of 50+ kt would support storm organization into a supercells or short linear segments capable of damaging gusts. Large low-level hodograph curvature, especially near the warm front/outflow farther east, may also support a risk for a tornado or two if more persistent supercells are able to organize. Confidence in overall convective evolution is low given relatively broad cloud cover from ongoing storms and poor mid-level lapse rates. Storms may take some time to organize and numerous storm interactions are expected within the weakly capped/forced air mass. Experimental WOFS guidance does show a gradual increase in severe probabilities with time, assuming the ongoing convection is able to sustain itself. Given the broadly favorable environment and potential for increasing severe risk, a weather watch is possible in the next 1-2 hours. ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29259082 29639250 29749312 29959324 30899232 31349178 31639024 31788928 31988846 31928826 31698788 30968777 30678781 30408787 30268790 30168835 29668942 29378997 29259068 29259082 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO FAR WEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The main changes with the 20z update were to trim parts of the Marginal and Slight risk areas across Texas based on current location of the surface front, and trends in CAMs guidance. Otherwise, the Slight risk from parts of LA eastward remain unchanged. Reference MCD 0205 for short term expectations for severe potential across LA/MS and far southwest AL. Overnight, severe thunderstorm potential will increase across south-central/southern AL. Some consideration to higher tornado probabilities was given to this area based on intensity of vertical shear. While low-level hodographs become large and favorably curved, latest forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP/NAM continue to indicate at least some weak low-level inhibition, mainly driven by poor lapse rates and some minor warming in the 850-700 mb layer. This will likely limit a greater tornado risk, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities (though conditional potential for a sig tor can not be completely ruled out) at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Eastern TX/OK east across the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough over the central states into the Desert Southwest. This large-scale trough will shift east during the period and become increasingly phased with an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the Upper Great Lakes. A couple of smaller-scale disturbances/speed maxima will move through the base of the southern stream trough. A lead convectively augmented disturbance over northeast TX will move northeast into AR/western TN during the day, while an upstream speed max moves from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, an effective cold front will continue to push east across east TX with a triple point expected to migrate east along a warm front/baroclinically reinforced boundary across central LA today. Near and south of the warm front, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will continue to slowly destabilize during the day with upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints. Sufficiently large and elongated hodographs will favor storm organization with the more persistent/stronger updrafts. A mix of line segments and cells in the warm sector traversing the warm frontal zone will potentially pose a risk for damaging gusts/large hail, and a threat for tornadoes with supercells. Farther east, an initially drier and stable airmass over the AL/FL Panhandle region will slowly destabilize as southerly low-level flow advects richer moisture north. It is uncertain how much strong/severe storm activity will occur during the day owing to the instability concerns, but severe potential may gradually increase into the evening/overnight. As a 500-mb speed max moves from the Rio Grande Valley into MS during the night while intensifying to 90+ kt, there is some indication in models of a rejuvenation of storm activity late tonight into the early part of Saturday morning on the eastern portion of the Slight Risk (i.e. AL vicinity). If some of this activity can become sustained and/or updrafts rooted in the boundary layer, a risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the stronger storms as 700-mb flow increases to 50 to 60-kt. ...Northeast TX/southeast OK... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon north of a surface low/frontal zone. Relatively cold 500-mb temperatures (-18 to -20 deg C) may yield hail potential with the stronger updrafts. Where low-level lapse rates can steepen sufficiently in wake of morning precip, a localized risk for a strong gust may also develop. This activity will likely diminish by early evening. Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 8 19:37:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more