Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday across parts of the Southeast States into the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Fast southern stream southwesterly deep-layer flow will progress northeast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, eventually merging with the northern stream upper trough digging across the Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Appalachians. Early in the day, a southwesterly low-level jet around 45-55 kt will be in place across northern FL/GA and the Carolinas, and shift east with time through late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, the main cyclone will be located over the Great Lakes and lift north/northeast across Quebec. However, most guidance depicts a weaker low/frontal wave from northern GA into the central Carolinas during the daytime hours. A cold front will be located across central AL to the mouth of the MS River at the start of the period. At the same time, a CAD wedge is forecast over the western Carolinas into northern GA while a warm front stretches from central GA into southern SC. Strong warm advection will allow for some erosion of the cold air damming into the central Carolinas during the day, with mid 60s F surface dewpoints across spreading into central GA, portions of the SC Mid and Lowlands and eastern NC ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Warm advection atop the area of cold air damming will result in widespread cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern GA into Upstate SC Saturday morning. Convection will remain elevated. However, strong vertical shear and sufficient elevated instability amid modest midlevel lapse rates could still support strong gusts and perhaps small hail. Across the warm sector from northern FL into central/southern GA and parts of SC into far southeast NC, severe potential will be greater. While vertical shear will support supercells, there is some concern regarding storm coverage from norther FL into GA as most forecast guidance depicts a dryslot quickly overspreading the region ahead of the cold front. This is evident in forecast soundings showing drying around 700 mb and increasing inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. This could limit longevity of stronger updrafts despite MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear. Nevertheless, any sustained supercells will have an attendant risk of damaging gusts and tornadoes, along with isolated hail. Confidence is higher in isolated to widely scattered supercells across parts of the SC Mid and Lowlands and far southeast NC near and south of the sharp warm front. Midlevel drying is not expected to be as great across this area, with little inhibition apparent in forecast soundings by early afternoon. Given proximity to the surface warm front and the low-level get spreading over this area, low-level SRH will be maximized. Supercells producing damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through late afternoon. With northward extent across NC, overall thermodynamic environment will become less favorable. However, strong deep-layer flow could still support some organized storm structures and isolated strong gusts into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Expanded the Elevated area slightly east across portions of the Texas Hill Country where latest high resolution guidance shows relative humidity decreasing to 15 to 20 percent with winds around 15 mph. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 03/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough will eject eastward across the Mississippi River Valley today as a belt of enhanced mid-level west southwesterly flow extends across the Rio Grande northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. An associated surface low will track northeastward across the southeast, as a surface high builds in across the central and southern High Plains. Northwesterly gradients between these two features will support gusty surface winds across portions of western and southern Texas from Big Bend southward into the Rio Grande Valley. Within this region, afternoon humidity as low as 15-20 percent will overlap with sustained winds at 15-20 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the threat with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more