Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few weak thunderstorms will be possible from southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico overnight. ...Discussion... Lift associated with a shortwave trough may result in a few weak thunderstorms tonight from southeast AZ into southwest NM, as midlevel moistening occurs. Forecast soundings depict steep midlevel lapse rates, but generally weak winds below 500 mb as the area will be well north of the midlevel jet. The lift and increasing midlevel RH will counteract the loss of diurnal heating, possibly leading to scattered showers and isolated lightning flashes. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2024 Read more