Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PFN TO 20 NE SAV. ..DEAN..03/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-047-065-073-077-079-123-129-091640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HAMILTON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-005-019-025-027-029-039-049-051-065-075-101-127-173-179- 183-185-191-229-275-299-305-091640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BACON BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COOK ECHOLS GLYNN LANIER LIBERTY LONG LOWNDES MCINTOSH PIERCE THOMAS WARE WAYNE Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PFN TO 25 NNE SAV. ..DEAN..03/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-047-065-073-077-079-123-129-091540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HAMILTON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC001-003-005-019-025-027-029-039-049-051-065-069-071-075-101- 127-131-173-179-183-185-191-229-267-275-299-305-091540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE COLQUITT COOK ECHOLS GLYNN GRADY LANIER LIBERTY LONG LOWNDES MCINTOSH PIERCE TATTNALL Read more