Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more