Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry conditions are expected to remain across West Texas on Thursday, but winds will be very light. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Winds are expected to be much lighter as surface gradients decrease across the southern High Plains, where the driest conditions will overlap the driest fuels. A cold front will move southward across the Southern Plains late Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry conditions are expected to remain across West Texas on Thursday, but winds will be very light. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Winds are expected to be much lighter as surface gradients decrease across the southern High Plains, where the driest conditions will overlap the driest fuels. A cold front will move southward across the Southern Plains late Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry conditions are expected to remain across West Texas on Thursday, but winds will be very light. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Winds are expected to be much lighter as surface gradients decrease across the southern High Plains, where the driest conditions will overlap the driest fuels. A cold front will move southward across the Southern Plains late Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry conditions are expected to remain across West Texas on Thursday, but winds will be very light. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Winds are expected to be much lighter as surface gradients decrease across the southern High Plains, where the driest conditions will overlap the driest fuels. A cold front will move southward across the Southern Plains late Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry conditions are expected to remain across West Texas on Thursday, but winds will be very light. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Winds are expected to be much lighter as surface gradients decrease across the southern High Plains, where the driest conditions will overlap the driest fuels. A cold front will move southward across the Southern Plains late Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry conditions are expected to remain across West Texas on Thursday, but winds will be very light. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Winds are expected to be much lighter as surface gradients decrease across the southern High Plains, where the driest conditions will overlap the driest fuels. A cold front will move southward across the Southern Plains late Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry conditions are expected to remain across West Texas on Thursday, but winds will be very light. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Winds are expected to be much lighter as surface gradients decrease across the southern High Plains, where the driest conditions will overlap the driest fuels. A cold front will move southward across the Southern Plains late Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry conditions are expected to remain across West Texas on Thursday, but winds will be very light. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Winds are expected to be much lighter as surface gradients decrease across the southern High Plains, where the driest conditions will overlap the driest fuels. A cold front will move southward across the Southern Plains late Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more