Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Aside from a rogue flash of lightning with weak convection off of Lake Erie, the probability for thunderstorms across the CONUS is negligible. Surface front has progressed off the southern tip of FL and any convection of note should be associated with the boundary offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Aside from a rogue flash of lightning with weak convection off of Lake Erie, the probability for thunderstorms across the CONUS is negligible. Surface front has progressed off the southern tip of FL and any convection of note should be associated with the boundary offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Aside from a rogue flash of lightning with weak convection off of Lake Erie, the probability for thunderstorms across the CONUS is negligible. Surface front has progressed off the southern tip of FL and any convection of note should be associated with the boundary offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Aside from a rogue flash of lightning with weak convection off of Lake Erie, the probability for thunderstorms across the CONUS is negligible. Surface front has progressed off the southern tip of FL and any convection of note should be associated with the boundary offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 13 22:30:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0061 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHWESTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
Mesoscale Discussion 0061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Areas affected...Northwestern Oregon and far southeastern Washington Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 132005Z - 140000Z SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow with snowfall rates between 1-2 in/hour will continue into the mid/late afternoon hours. Freezing rain remains probable through the Willamette Valley. DISCUSSION...Bands of moderate to heavy precipitation continue to overspread the Pacific Northwest ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. So far, much of this activity has been driven by warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer, but some uptick in precip coverage and intensity appears likely as lift associated with the vorticity maximum and attendant mid-level jet overspreads the region. The 18z SLE sounding sampled a deep saturated layer from the surface to around 450 mb with a somewhat shallow (~100 mb deep) 1-2 C warm nose centered at about 850 mb/3 kft. More recent KRTX CC imagery indicates that this warm nose remains in place. Locations above roughly 3 kft should continue to see moderate to heavy snowfall through the mid/late afternoon with snowfall rates between 1-2 in/hour possible. The shallow sub-freezing layer below ~3 kft will support a continuation of freezing rain for some locations - primarily through the Willamette Valley. However, localized fluctuations in the shallow warm layer may promote variation in precipitation types between freezing rain, snow, and sleet. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...SEW...PQR... LAT...LON 44192375 44442423 44642418 46032410 46212399 46392363 46352107 46182067 45762021 45001991 44212004 43732038 43532087 43462157 43772338 44192375 Read more