Severe Storms

MD 0217 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0217 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Areas affected...parts of west central missouri and southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130334Z - 130500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Some thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail remains possible, but appears likely to generally diminish through 11 PM-Midnight. DISCUSSION...Near the western periphery of the modestly strengthening and slowly veering southerly low-level jet, stronger ascent associated with low-level warm advection and inflow of better low-level moisture remain focused on the western flank of the upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms, east of the Greater Kansas City area. Similar forcing and stronger convective layer shear may also be maintaining the more isolated cell now to the east-southeast of Joplin, with the strongest storms still accompanied by a continuing risk for severe hail based on latest MRMS data. However, warming farther aloft is slowly underway across much of western Missouri, as the the mid-level short wave trough and associated cold core progress east-southeastward into the middle Mississippi Valley. It appears that this will contribute to substantive weakening of convection and diminishing hail potential through 04-06Z. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 38909404 39379413 39359344 38859318 38459345 37959363 37559377 36819385 36979435 37309408 38369376 38909404 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening from far southeast Kansas and far northeast Oklahoma into western and northern Missouri. ...Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma/Western and Northern Missouri... A 1004 mb low is currently analyzed over northeast Kansas, with the moist axis located from near Tulsa north-northeastward to the vicinity of the Kansas City Metro. The RAP has a pocket of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, within which isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. The convection is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough over eastern Kansas, and by weak low-level convergence. Ahead of the shortwave trough, convective coverage is expected to increase some this evening, as storms develop and move eastward across western and northern Missouri. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis have the strongest deep-layer shear in far southwest Missouri, where 0-6 km shear is near 40 knots according to the Springfield, Missouri WSR-88D VWP. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km should be enough for isolated severe hail, and a few marginally severe wind gusts. The threats are expected to decrease by late evening as instability weakens across the region. ..Broyles.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening from far southeast Kansas and far northeast Oklahoma into western and northern Missouri. ...Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma/Western and Northern Missouri... A 1004 mb low is currently analyzed over northeast Kansas, with the moist axis located from near Tulsa north-northeastward to the vicinity of the Kansas City Metro. The RAP has a pocket of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, within which isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. The convection is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough over eastern Kansas, and by weak low-level convergence. Ahead of the shortwave trough, convective coverage is expected to increase some this evening, as storms develop and move eastward across western and northern Missouri. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis have the strongest deep-layer shear in far southwest Missouri, where 0-6 km shear is near 40 knots according to the Springfield, Missouri WSR-88D VWP. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km should be enough for isolated severe hail, and a few marginally severe wind gusts. The threats are expected to decrease by late evening as instability weakens across the region. ..Broyles.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening from far southeast Kansas and far northeast Oklahoma into western and northern Missouri. ...Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma/Western and Northern Missouri... A 1004 mb low is currently analyzed over northeast Kansas, with the moist axis located from near Tulsa north-northeastward to the vicinity of the Kansas City Metro. The RAP has a pocket of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, within which isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. The convection is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough over eastern Kansas, and by weak low-level convergence. Ahead of the shortwave trough, convective coverage is expected to increase some this evening, as storms develop and move eastward across western and northern Missouri. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis have the strongest deep-layer shear in far southwest Missouri, where 0-6 km shear is near 40 knots according to the Springfield, Missouri WSR-88D VWP. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km should be enough for isolated severe hail, and a few marginally severe wind gusts. The threats are expected to decrease by late evening as instability weakens across the region. ..Broyles.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening from far southeast Kansas and far northeast Oklahoma into western and northern Missouri. ...Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma/Western and Northern Missouri... A 1004 mb low is currently analyzed over northeast Kansas, with the moist axis located from near Tulsa north-northeastward to the vicinity of the Kansas City Metro. The RAP has a pocket of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, within which isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. The convection is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough over eastern Kansas, and by weak low-level convergence. Ahead of the shortwave trough, convective coverage is expected to increase some this evening, as storms develop and move eastward across western and northern Missouri. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis have the strongest deep-layer shear in far southwest Missouri, where 0-6 km shear is near 40 knots according to the Springfield, Missouri WSR-88D VWP. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km should be enough for isolated severe hail, and a few marginally severe wind gusts. The threats are expected to decrease by late evening as instability weakens across the region. ..Broyles.. 03/13/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 12 23:31:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 12 23:31:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0216 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Areas affected...west central Missouri through eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 122226Z - 122330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development is possible through the 7-9 PM CDT time frame, including the potential evolution of isolated supercells posing a risk for marginally severe hail and wind. DISCUSSION...To the south and east of a weak low, embedded within broader surface troughing across much of the central Great Plains, the boundary-layer has become modestly deep and well mixed, with a corridor of limited low-level moisture return (including mid/upper 50s F surface dew points) contributing to CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. This generally extends from near/west of Kansas City into the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity, near the southern periphery of colder mid-level air (at or below -20C around 500 mb) associated with a digging short wave trough. Inhibition has slowly been eroded within peak afternoon heating, aided by large-scale ascent, particularly across the Greater Kansas City vicinity, where stronger low-level warm advection has become focused, and across the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity, within the exit region of an east-southeastward propagating mid-level jet (50+ kt around 500 mb). Strongest deep-layer shear is focused closer to the mid-level jet core, where the initiation of vigorous discrete thunderstorm development seems most probable prior to sunset, before waning earlier with the loss of daytime heating. Farther north, high resolution convection allowing guidance has been suggestive that that higher probabilities for the initiation of sustained thunderstorm development will await nocturnal low-level jet strengthening, and enhancement of forcing associated with low-level warm advection, generally near/east of Kansas City. At least attempts at thunderstorm initiation appear ongoing throughout the destabilizing environment. Regardless of the timing of sustained initiation, isolated supercells structures may evolve and promote a period with potential for convection to produce marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39569575 39979472 39989373 39279284 38729357 38319419 37039438 36289503 36589626 37369595 38289594 39569575 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast period. Currently, dry fuels are only present across the southern High Plains and portions of the central Plains. However, precipitation is expected across the central Plains with some wetting rain possible in the southern High Plains on Friday. In addition to these wetting rains in regions with ongoing dry fuels, minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions are expected in these areas during the extended forecast period. Therefore, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast period. Currently, dry fuels are only present across the southern High Plains and portions of the central Plains. However, precipitation is expected across the central Plains with some wetting rain possible in the southern High Plains on Friday. In addition to these wetting rains in regions with ongoing dry fuels, minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions are expected in these areas during the extended forecast period. Therefore, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast period. Currently, dry fuels are only present across the southern High Plains and portions of the central Plains. However, precipitation is expected across the central Plains with some wetting rain possible in the southern High Plains on Friday. In addition to these wetting rains in regions with ongoing dry fuels, minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions are expected in these areas during the extended forecast period. Therefore, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast period. Currently, dry fuels are only present across the southern High Plains and portions of the central Plains. However, precipitation is expected across the central Plains with some wetting rain possible in the southern High Plains on Friday. In addition to these wetting rains in regions with ongoing dry fuels, minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions are expected in these areas during the extended forecast period. Therefore, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast period. Currently, dry fuels are only present across the southern High Plains and portions of the central Plains. However, precipitation is expected across the central Plains with some wetting rain possible in the southern High Plains on Friday. In addition to these wetting rains in regions with ongoing dry fuels, minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions are expected in these areas during the extended forecast period. Therefore, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast period. Currently, dry fuels are only present across the southern High Plains and portions of the central Plains. However, precipitation is expected across the central Plains with some wetting rain possible in the southern High Plains on Friday. In addition to these wetting rains in regions with ongoing dry fuels, minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions are expected in these areas during the extended forecast period. Therefore, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). Read more