Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... An Extremely Critical fire weather area has been added for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This region will be where the strongest mid-level flow overspreads a deeply mixed atmosphere. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts of 50+ mph. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... An Extremely Critical fire weather area has been added for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This region will be where the strongest mid-level flow overspreads a deeply mixed atmosphere. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts of 50+ mph. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... An Extremely Critical fire weather area has been added for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This region will be where the strongest mid-level flow overspreads a deeply mixed atmosphere. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts of 50+ mph. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... An Extremely Critical fire weather area has been added for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This region will be where the strongest mid-level flow overspreads a deeply mixed atmosphere. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts of 50+ mph. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... An Extremely Critical fire weather area has been added for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This region will be where the strongest mid-level flow overspreads a deeply mixed atmosphere. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts of 50+ mph. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... An Extremely Critical fire weather area has been added for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This region will be where the strongest mid-level flow overspreads a deeply mixed atmosphere. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts of 50+ mph. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the Interior West during the period with a downstream ridge over the MS Valley shifting east into the OH Valley/Appalachians. A shortwave trough is forecast to eject northeast from the Sangre de Cristos into the lower MO Valley through the mid evening. A belt of stronger mid to upper-level southwesterly flow will overspread the TX Panhandle and OK during the afternoon and eventually nose into the lower MO Valley overnight. In the low levels, a cyclone over the KS vicinity during much of the day 2 period will feature a warm front advancing north through portions of the lower MO Valley and a dryline extending southward into OK and north TX. ...KS and NE eastward into the mid MS Valley... Strong low-level moisture advection into the region will occur as surface dewpoints are forecast to rise into the 50s deg F. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Storm coverage prior to sunset remains uncertain but thunderstorm coverage will likely increase during the evening near the warm front over northern KS eastward into the northern half of MO during the evening into the overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a storm environment in which the stronger storms will be capable of large to very large hail. If moisture quality is locally higher near the warm frontal zone and a supercellular mode is maintained, a tornado risk could develop due to enlarged hodographs. Storm coverage will likely increase into the overnight as warm-air advection strengthens in tandem with a LLJ. Primarily elevated storms capable of a large-hail threat may extend as far east as northeast MO into west-central IL. ...OK and north TX... Greater uncertainty on thunderstorm development will exist southward along the dryline and into eastern portions of OK and perhaps north TX beginning late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Model guidance varies considerably on the magnitude of low-level moisture with NAM exhibiting a more moisture-rich setup compared to model ensembles (HREF, SREF) and considerably drier solutions like the 15z RAP and latest GFS. Forecaster experience with these early season moisture return setups suggest a median to slightly drier solution is most probable. Moisture is the primary and likely consequential ingredient that will dictate severe thunderstorm risk across this corridor late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. With those concerns stated, cool mid-level temperatures in the -16 to -17 deg C range will result in steep lapse rates and contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg). Clockwise-curved and elongated hodographs would favor supercells if a sustained storm can root in the boundary layer. Given the low probability (currently depicted in ensemble CAM guidance) for storm development, will maintain a categorical 1 (Marginal) risk. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the Interior West during the period with a downstream ridge over the MS Valley shifting east into the OH Valley/Appalachians. A shortwave trough is forecast to eject northeast from the Sangre de Cristos into the lower MO Valley through the mid evening. A belt of stronger mid to upper-level southwesterly flow will overspread the TX Panhandle and OK during the afternoon and eventually nose into the lower MO Valley overnight. In the low levels, a cyclone over the KS vicinity during much of the day 2 period will feature a warm front advancing north through portions of the lower MO Valley and a dryline extending southward into OK and north TX. ...KS and NE eastward into the mid MS Valley... Strong low-level moisture advection into the region will occur as surface dewpoints are forecast to rise into the 50s deg F. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Storm coverage prior to sunset remains uncertain but thunderstorm coverage will likely increase during the evening near the warm front over northern KS eastward into the northern half of MO during the evening into the overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a storm environment in which the stronger storms will be capable of large to very large hail. If moisture quality is locally higher near the warm frontal zone and a supercellular mode is maintained, a tornado risk could develop due to enlarged hodographs. Storm coverage will likely increase into the overnight as warm-air advection strengthens in tandem with a LLJ. Primarily elevated storms capable of a large-hail threat may extend as far east as northeast MO into west-central IL. ...OK and north TX... Greater uncertainty on thunderstorm development will exist southward along the dryline and into eastern portions of OK and perhaps north TX beginning late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Model guidance varies considerably on the magnitude of low-level moisture with NAM exhibiting a more moisture-rich setup compared to model ensembles (HREF, SREF) and considerably drier solutions like the 15z RAP and latest GFS. Forecaster experience with these early season moisture return setups suggest a median to slightly drier solution is most probable. Moisture is the primary and likely consequential ingredient that will dictate severe thunderstorm risk across this corridor late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. With those concerns stated, cool mid-level temperatures in the -16 to -17 deg C range will result in steep lapse rates and contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg). Clockwise-curved and elongated hodographs would favor supercells if a sustained storm can root in the boundary layer. Given the low probability (currently depicted in ensemble CAM guidance) for storm development, will maintain a categorical 1 (Marginal) risk. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the Interior West during the period with a downstream ridge over the MS Valley shifting east into the OH Valley/Appalachians. A shortwave trough is forecast to eject northeast from the Sangre de Cristos into the lower MO Valley through the mid evening. A belt of stronger mid to upper-level southwesterly flow will overspread the TX Panhandle and OK during the afternoon and eventually nose into the lower MO Valley overnight. In the low levels, a cyclone over the KS vicinity during much of the day 2 period will feature a warm front advancing north through portions of the lower MO Valley and a dryline extending southward into OK and north TX. ...KS and NE eastward into the mid MS Valley... Strong low-level moisture advection into the region will occur as surface dewpoints are forecast to rise into the 50s deg F. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Storm coverage prior to sunset remains uncertain but thunderstorm coverage will likely increase during the evening near the warm front over northern KS eastward into the northern half of MO during the evening into the overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a storm environment in which the stronger storms will be capable of large to very large hail. If moisture quality is locally higher near the warm frontal zone and a supercellular mode is maintained, a tornado risk could develop due to enlarged hodographs. Storm coverage will likely increase into the overnight as warm-air advection strengthens in tandem with a LLJ. Primarily elevated storms capable of a large-hail threat may extend as far east as northeast MO into west-central IL. ...OK and north TX... Greater uncertainty on thunderstorm development will exist southward along the dryline and into eastern portions of OK and perhaps north TX beginning late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Model guidance varies considerably on the magnitude of low-level moisture with NAM exhibiting a more moisture-rich setup compared to model ensembles (HREF, SREF) and considerably drier solutions like the 15z RAP and latest GFS. Forecaster experience with these early season moisture return setups suggest a median to slightly drier solution is most probable. Moisture is the primary and likely consequential ingredient that will dictate severe thunderstorm risk across this corridor late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. With those concerns stated, cool mid-level temperatures in the -16 to -17 deg C range will result in steep lapse rates and contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg). Clockwise-curved and elongated hodographs would favor supercells if a sustained storm can root in the boundary layer. Given the low probability (currently depicted in ensemble CAM guidance) for storm development, will maintain a categorical 1 (Marginal) risk. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the Interior West during the period with a downstream ridge over the MS Valley shifting east into the OH Valley/Appalachians. A shortwave trough is forecast to eject northeast from the Sangre de Cristos into the lower MO Valley through the mid evening. A belt of stronger mid to upper-level southwesterly flow will overspread the TX Panhandle and OK during the afternoon and eventually nose into the lower MO Valley overnight. In the low levels, a cyclone over the KS vicinity during much of the day 2 period will feature a warm front advancing north through portions of the lower MO Valley and a dryline extending southward into OK and north TX. ...KS and NE eastward into the mid MS Valley... Strong low-level moisture advection into the region will occur as surface dewpoints are forecast to rise into the 50s deg F. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Storm coverage prior to sunset remains uncertain but thunderstorm coverage will likely increase during the evening near the warm front over northern KS eastward into the northern half of MO during the evening into the overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a storm environment in which the stronger storms will be capable of large to very large hail. If moisture quality is locally higher near the warm frontal zone and a supercellular mode is maintained, a tornado risk could develop due to enlarged hodographs. Storm coverage will likely increase into the overnight as warm-air advection strengthens in tandem with a LLJ. Primarily elevated storms capable of a large-hail threat may extend as far east as northeast MO into west-central IL. ...OK and north TX... Greater uncertainty on thunderstorm development will exist southward along the dryline and into eastern portions of OK and perhaps north TX beginning late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Model guidance varies considerably on the magnitude of low-level moisture with NAM exhibiting a more moisture-rich setup compared to model ensembles (HREF, SREF) and considerably drier solutions like the 15z RAP and latest GFS. Forecaster experience with these early season moisture return setups suggest a median to slightly drier solution is most probable. Moisture is the primary and likely consequential ingredient that will dictate severe thunderstorm risk across this corridor late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. With those concerns stated, cool mid-level temperatures in the -16 to -17 deg C range will result in steep lapse rates and contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg). Clockwise-curved and elongated hodographs would favor supercells if a sustained storm can root in the boundary layer. Given the low probability (currently depicted in ensemble CAM guidance) for storm development, will maintain a categorical 1 (Marginal) risk. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the Interior West during the period with a downstream ridge over the MS Valley shifting east into the OH Valley/Appalachians. A shortwave trough is forecast to eject northeast from the Sangre de Cristos into the lower MO Valley through the mid evening. A belt of stronger mid to upper-level southwesterly flow will overspread the TX Panhandle and OK during the afternoon and eventually nose into the lower MO Valley overnight. In the low levels, a cyclone over the KS vicinity during much of the day 2 period will feature a warm front advancing north through portions of the lower MO Valley and a dryline extending southward into OK and north TX. ...KS and NE eastward into the mid MS Valley... Strong low-level moisture advection into the region will occur as surface dewpoints are forecast to rise into the 50s deg F. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Storm coverage prior to sunset remains uncertain but thunderstorm coverage will likely increase during the evening near the warm front over northern KS eastward into the northern half of MO during the evening into the overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a storm environment in which the stronger storms will be capable of large to very large hail. If moisture quality is locally higher near the warm frontal zone and a supercellular mode is maintained, a tornado risk could develop due to enlarged hodographs. Storm coverage will likely increase into the overnight as warm-air advection strengthens in tandem with a LLJ. Primarily elevated storms capable of a large-hail threat may extend as far east as northeast MO into west-central IL. ...OK and north TX... Greater uncertainty on thunderstorm development will exist southward along the dryline and into eastern portions of OK and perhaps north TX beginning late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Model guidance varies considerably on the magnitude of low-level moisture with NAM exhibiting a more moisture-rich setup compared to model ensembles (HREF, SREF) and considerably drier solutions like the 15z RAP and latest GFS. Forecaster experience with these early season moisture return setups suggest a median to slightly drier solution is most probable. Moisture is the primary and likely consequential ingredient that will dictate severe thunderstorm risk across this corridor late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. With those concerns stated, cool mid-level temperatures in the -16 to -17 deg C range will result in steep lapse rates and contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg). Clockwise-curved and elongated hodographs would favor supercells if a sustained storm can root in the boundary layer. Given the low probability (currently depicted in ensemble CAM guidance) for storm development, will maintain a categorical 1 (Marginal) risk. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). ..Guyer/Lyons.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). ..Guyer/Lyons.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). ..Guyer/Lyons.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). ..Guyer/Lyons.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). ..Guyer/Lyons.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z Expanded the Elevated delineation slightly east across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma where slightly farther east mixing of the dryline is expected than previously forecast. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. A broad area of Elevated fire weather risk is expected across portions of the central and southern Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma into central Kansas. The driest conditions are expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will coincide with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Further north into western Oklahoma and western/central Kansas, relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 10-15 mph. Closer to the surface low across central Kansas, stronger sustained winds will be possible with relative humidity around 20-25 percent. A period of near Critical to Critical meteorological conditions may be possible briefly within this region. Overall, fuels within this region do not support a Critical delineation and as such an Elevated delineation was maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z Expanded the Elevated delineation slightly east across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma where slightly farther east mixing of the dryline is expected than previously forecast. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. A broad area of Elevated fire weather risk is expected across portions of the central and southern Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma into central Kansas. The driest conditions are expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will coincide with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Further north into western Oklahoma and western/central Kansas, relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 10-15 mph. Closer to the surface low across central Kansas, stronger sustained winds will be possible with relative humidity around 20-25 percent. A period of near Critical to Critical meteorological conditions may be possible briefly within this region. Overall, fuels within this region do not support a Critical delineation and as such an Elevated delineation was maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z Expanded the Elevated delineation slightly east across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma where slightly farther east mixing of the dryline is expected than previously forecast. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. A broad area of Elevated fire weather risk is expected across portions of the central and southern Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma into central Kansas. The driest conditions are expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will coincide with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Further north into western Oklahoma and western/central Kansas, relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 10-15 mph. Closer to the surface low across central Kansas, stronger sustained winds will be possible with relative humidity around 20-25 percent. A period of near Critical to Critical meteorological conditions may be possible briefly within this region. Overall, fuels within this region do not support a Critical delineation and as such an Elevated delineation was maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z Expanded the Elevated delineation slightly east across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma where slightly farther east mixing of the dryline is expected than previously forecast. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. A broad area of Elevated fire weather risk is expected across portions of the central and southern Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma into central Kansas. The driest conditions are expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will coincide with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Further north into western Oklahoma and western/central Kansas, relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 10-15 mph. Closer to the surface low across central Kansas, stronger sustained winds will be possible with relative humidity around 20-25 percent. A period of near Critical to Critical meteorological conditions may be possible briefly within this region. Overall, fuels within this region do not support a Critical delineation and as such an Elevated delineation was maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more