Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry conditions are expected to remain across West Texas on Thursday, but winds will be very light. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Winds are expected to be much lighter as surface gradients decrease across the southern High Plains, where the driest conditions will overlap the driest fuels. A cold front will move southward across the Southern Plains late Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry conditions are expected to remain across West Texas on Thursday, but winds will be very light. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Winds are expected to be much lighter as surface gradients decrease across the southern High Plains, where the driest conditions will overlap the driest fuels. A cold front will move southward across the Southern Plains late Thursday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Synopsis... A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from a mid-level low over the Desert Southwest to the northeast over the mid MS Valley and OH Valley. A speed max is forecast to move from KS/MO during the morning into the southern Great Lakes during the day. A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL where showers/thunderstorms will likely focus early Thursday morning. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass in wake of early to midday cloud cover/convective activity. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward through the period. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the forecast position of the effective frontal zone farther south. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO and into central IL. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential placement of the boundary and magnitude of destabilization. However, cool mid-level temperatures resulting in steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, dewpoints near 60 deg F and a supercell wind profile, will support organized thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even an isolated risk for a tornado. Damaging gusts and large hail are also possible with the stronger storms or thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region as neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights occur through the early evening. Strong destabilization is forecast across north TX into eastern OK into southwest MO by mid to late afternoon. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in some enlargement to low-level hodographs. An eventual linear cluster of storms will probably evolve across western AR into southern MO as the primary severe hazards transition to linear-based storm hazards (i.e., damaging gusts, isolated risk for a tornado). ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Have expanded severe probabilities farther east across the lower OH Valley southward through middle TN and northern MS to account for an environment supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts late overnight. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Synopsis... A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from a mid-level low over the Desert Southwest to the northeast over the mid MS Valley and OH Valley. A speed max is forecast to move from KS/MO during the morning into the southern Great Lakes during the day. A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL where showers/thunderstorms will likely focus early Thursday morning. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass in wake of early to midday cloud cover/convective activity. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward through the period. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the forecast position of the effective frontal zone farther south. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO and into central IL. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential placement of the boundary and magnitude of destabilization. However, cool mid-level temperatures resulting in steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, dewpoints near 60 deg F and a supercell wind profile, will support organized thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even an isolated risk for a tornado. Damaging gusts and large hail are also possible with the stronger storms or thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region as neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights occur through the early evening. Strong destabilization is forecast across north TX into eastern OK into southwest MO by mid to late afternoon. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in some enlargement to low-level hodographs. An eventual linear cluster of storms will probably evolve across western AR into southern MO as the primary severe hazards transition to linear-based storm hazards (i.e., damaging gusts, isolated risk for a tornado). ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Have expanded severe probabilities farther east across the lower OH Valley southward through middle TN and northern MS to account for an environment supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts late overnight. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Synopsis... A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from a mid-level low over the Desert Southwest to the northeast over the mid MS Valley and OH Valley. A speed max is forecast to move from KS/MO during the morning into the southern Great Lakes during the day. A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL where showers/thunderstorms will likely focus early Thursday morning. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass in wake of early to midday cloud cover/convective activity. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward through the period. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the forecast position of the effective frontal zone farther south. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO and into central IL. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential placement of the boundary and magnitude of destabilization. However, cool mid-level temperatures resulting in steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, dewpoints near 60 deg F and a supercell wind profile, will support organized thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even an isolated risk for a tornado. Damaging gusts and large hail are also possible with the stronger storms or thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region as neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights occur through the early evening. Strong destabilization is forecast across north TX into eastern OK into southwest MO by mid to late afternoon. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in some enlargement to low-level hodographs. An eventual linear cluster of storms will probably evolve across western AR into southern MO as the primary severe hazards transition to linear-based storm hazards (i.e., damaging gusts, isolated risk for a tornado). ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Have expanded severe probabilities farther east across the lower OH Valley southward through middle TN and northern MS to account for an environment supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts late overnight. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Synopsis... A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from a mid-level low over the Desert Southwest to the northeast over the mid MS Valley and OH Valley. A speed max is forecast to move from KS/MO during the morning into the southern Great Lakes during the day. A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL where showers/thunderstorms will likely focus early Thursday morning. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass in wake of early to midday cloud cover/convective activity. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward through the period. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the forecast position of the effective frontal zone farther south. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO and into central IL. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential placement of the boundary and magnitude of destabilization. However, cool mid-level temperatures resulting in steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, dewpoints near 60 deg F and a supercell wind profile, will support organized thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even an isolated risk for a tornado. Damaging gusts and large hail are also possible with the stronger storms or thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region as neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights occur through the early evening. Strong destabilization is forecast across north TX into eastern OK into southwest MO by mid to late afternoon. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in some enlargement to low-level hodographs. An eventual linear cluster of storms will probably evolve across western AR into southern MO as the primary severe hazards transition to linear-based storm hazards (i.e., damaging gusts, isolated risk for a tornado). ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Have expanded severe probabilities farther east across the lower OH Valley southward through middle TN and northern MS to account for an environment supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts late overnight. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Synopsis... A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from a mid-level low over the Desert Southwest to the northeast over the mid MS Valley and OH Valley. A speed max is forecast to move from KS/MO during the morning into the southern Great Lakes during the day. A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL where showers/thunderstorms will likely focus early Thursday morning. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass in wake of early to midday cloud cover/convective activity. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward through the period. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the forecast position of the effective frontal zone farther south. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO and into central IL. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential placement of the boundary and magnitude of destabilization. However, cool mid-level temperatures resulting in steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, dewpoints near 60 deg F and a supercell wind profile, will support organized thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even an isolated risk for a tornado. Damaging gusts and large hail are also possible with the stronger storms or thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region as neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights occur through the early evening. Strong destabilization is forecast across north TX into eastern OK into southwest MO by mid to late afternoon. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in some enlargement to low-level hodographs. An eventual linear cluster of storms will probably evolve across western AR into southern MO as the primary severe hazards transition to linear-based storm hazards (i.e., damaging gusts, isolated risk for a tornado). ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Have expanded severe probabilities farther east across the lower OH Valley southward through middle TN and northern MS to account for an environment supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts late overnight. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Synopsis... A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from a mid-level low over the Desert Southwest to the northeast over the mid MS Valley and OH Valley. A speed max is forecast to move from KS/MO during the morning into the southern Great Lakes during the day. A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL where showers/thunderstorms will likely focus early Thursday morning. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass in wake of early to midday cloud cover/convective activity. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward through the period. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the forecast position of the effective frontal zone farther south. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO and into central IL. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential placement of the boundary and magnitude of destabilization. However, cool mid-level temperatures resulting in steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, dewpoints near 60 deg F and a supercell wind profile, will support organized thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even an isolated risk for a tornado. Damaging gusts and large hail are also possible with the stronger storms or thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region as neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights occur through the early evening. Strong destabilization is forecast across north TX into eastern OK into southwest MO by mid to late afternoon. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in some enlargement to low-level hodographs. An eventual linear cluster of storms will probably evolve across western AR into southern MO as the primary severe hazards transition to linear-based storm hazards (i.e., damaging gusts, isolated risk for a tornado). ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Have expanded severe probabilities farther east across the lower OH Valley southward through middle TN and northern MS to account for an environment supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts late overnight. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Synopsis... A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from a mid-level low over the Desert Southwest to the northeast over the mid MS Valley and OH Valley. A speed max is forecast to move from KS/MO during the morning into the southern Great Lakes during the day. A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL where showers/thunderstorms will likely focus early Thursday morning. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass in wake of early to midday cloud cover/convective activity. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward through the period. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the forecast position of the effective frontal zone farther south. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO and into central IL. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential placement of the boundary and magnitude of destabilization. However, cool mid-level temperatures resulting in steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, dewpoints near 60 deg F and a supercell wind profile, will support organized thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even an isolated risk for a tornado. Damaging gusts and large hail are also possible with the stronger storms or thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region as neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights occur through the early evening. Strong destabilization is forecast across north TX into eastern OK into southwest MO by mid to late afternoon. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in some enlargement to low-level hodographs. An eventual linear cluster of storms will probably evolve across western AR into southern MO as the primary severe hazards transition to linear-based storm hazards (i.e., damaging gusts, isolated risk for a tornado). ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Have expanded severe probabilities farther east across the lower OH Valley southward through middle TN and northern MS to account for an environment supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts late overnight. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Synopsis... A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from a mid-level low over the Desert Southwest to the northeast over the mid MS Valley and OH Valley. A speed max is forecast to move from KS/MO during the morning into the southern Great Lakes during the day. A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL where showers/thunderstorms will likely focus early Thursday morning. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass in wake of early to midday cloud cover/convective activity. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward through the period. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the forecast position of the effective frontal zone farther south. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO and into central IL. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential placement of the boundary and magnitude of destabilization. However, cool mid-level temperatures resulting in steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, dewpoints near 60 deg F and a supercell wind profile, will support organized thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even an isolated risk for a tornado. Damaging gusts and large hail are also possible with the stronger storms or thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region as neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights occur through the early evening. Strong destabilization is forecast across north TX into eastern OK into southwest MO by mid to late afternoon. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in some enlargement to low-level hodographs. An eventual linear cluster of storms will probably evolve across western AR into southern MO as the primary severe hazards transition to linear-based storm hazards (i.e., damaging gusts, isolated risk for a tornado). ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Have expanded severe probabilities farther east across the lower OH Valley southward through middle TN and northern MS to account for an environment supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts late overnight. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Synopsis... A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from a mid-level low over the Desert Southwest to the northeast over the mid MS Valley and OH Valley. A speed max is forecast to move from KS/MO during the morning into the southern Great Lakes during the day. A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL where showers/thunderstorms will likely focus early Thursday morning. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass in wake of early to midday cloud cover/convective activity. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward through the period. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the forecast position of the effective frontal zone farther south. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO and into central IL. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential placement of the boundary and magnitude of destabilization. However, cool mid-level temperatures resulting in steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, dewpoints near 60 deg F and a supercell wind profile, will support organized thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even an isolated risk for a tornado. Damaging gusts and large hail are also possible with the stronger storms or thunderstorm clusters. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region as neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights occur through the early evening. Strong destabilization is forecast across north TX into eastern OK into southwest MO by mid to late afternoon. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in some enlargement to low-level hodographs. An eventual linear cluster of storms will probably evolve across western AR into southern MO as the primary severe hazards transition to linear-based storm hazards (i.e., damaging gusts, isolated risk for a tornado). ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Have expanded severe probabilities farther east across the lower OH Valley southward through middle TN and northern MS to account for an environment supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts late overnight. ..Smith.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur late this afternoon across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Lead shortwave trough and upper jet exit region will approach the region this evening, with an evolving/northeast-shifting triple point related to dual transitionary surface waves near/north of the dryline and along a southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily increase (50s F surface dewpoints) into the region, but tend to be a limiting factor for a more consequential tornado risk while still supporting an appreciable potential for large hail. Initial thunderstorm development, at least on isolated to widely scattered basis, will likely begin by late afternoon (roughly 22z-23z), probably a bit earlier than some short-term guidance depictions. This development will likely include the surface low/triple point vicinity across west-central into northern Kansas, and potentially as far east as central/east-central Missouri in vicinity of the warm front. Supercells with all severe hazards are possible, including at least a few tornadoes and significant (2+ inch) hail. It still appears the greatest concentration of severe risk will be across northeast Kansas into northwestern Missouri within the "Enhanced" Risk, but eastward increased-risk adjustments have otherwise been made across eastern Missouri. While large hail will be the most common severe risk regionally, tornado potential will be maximized with discrete or semi-discrete storms late this afternoon and early this evening near the surface low/triple point vicinity, before boundary layer CINH increases later in the evening. Damaging wind potential could also increase for a time this evening, especially if storms cluster into/across northern Missouri. ...Southern Plains including OK/southern KS and north Texas... Seasonally hot temperatures and strong mixing will occur near/behind the north/south-extensive dryline today, as boundary layer moisture otherwise increases (upper 50s to lower 60s F) within the warm/moist sector east of the dryline. Implications from observational trends in addition to short-term guidance suggests near-dryline convergence/confluence will be lacking (0-3 km AGL or surface to 850/700mb). Even while mid-level capping should be prevalent, isolated attempts for deep convective initiation are plausible late this afternoon, especially with northward extent across the Oklahoma/southern Kansas portion of the dryline where mid-level cooling (-16 to -18C at 500 mb) and somewhat greater confluence may exist. If/where any storms can sustain, moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rate environment and supercell-favorable hodographs (45+ effective shear) would support a severe storm/supercell risk with large hail and possibly some tornado potential, albeit with modest boundary-layer moisture. However, as previously indicated, any such potential is still expected to remain very isolated and uncertain regionally. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... Relative humidity has already dropped into the teens to low 20s across much of the southern High Plains with winds around 15 mph. Winds will increase rapidly over the next few hours as the boundary layer deepens with sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph by early afternoon. The most extreme conditions are expected between 20Z and 23Z when mixing will be deepest and mid-level flow overspreading the region. Any wildfires which form are likely to spread rapidly in dense, critically dry, fine fuels with high resistance to control. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Rocky Mountains and the southern/central Plains today. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. A broader area of Elevated to Critical fire weather will encompass much of the southern High Plains. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Extremely Critical... An Extremely Critical fire area was maintained with this outlook across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Within this region, the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected (gusting of 50+ mph) with relative humidity dropping in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ...Southern High Plains Critical... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 20-25 (locally as high as 30 mph). Fuels within this region are critically dry (with ERCs around the 60-75th percentile) and will support increase in wildfire spread. Fuel loading is not as extensive in these regions. As such, a Critical was maintained with this outlook as confidence in widespread Extremely Critical conditions is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more