Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... The risk for showers and isolated thunderstorms capable of producing strong wind gusts, and perhaps brief tornadoes, may begin to increase late Monday night (toward daybreak Tuesday) across parts of the lower Florida Keys. ...Discussion... Models suggest that there will be little change to the amplified mid/upper flow regime now developing across North America, through at least daybreak Tuesday. This will include prominent ridging across the Pacific coast through much of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, and large-scale downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. The cold front associated with a reinforcing intrusion of cool and/or dry air to the east of the Rockies is forecast to slowly advance offshore of much of the middle and southern Atlantic coast, and into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Monday night. This will leave generally stable conditions in its wake, aside from those areas beneath colder mid-level air across parts of the lower Great Lakes region into the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, where a few thunderstorms are possible. In lower latitudes, the center of developing Hurricane Ian is forecast to migrate north-northwestward into the vicinity of far western Cuba by daybreak Tuesday. Strengthening easterly to southeasterly low-level wind fields may be accompanied by sufficient enlargement of increasingly clockwise curved low-level hodographs, and boundary-layer moistening, to begin contributing to increasing potential for brief tornadoes and/or severe wind gusts in convection as far northeast as the lower Florida Keys late Monday night. ..Kerr.. 09/25/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms producing damaging winds and severe hail are expected across portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon through evening. ...Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the upper OH Valley will eject eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, in response to an upstream shortwave trough digging south-southeastward from MB toward the upper MS Valley. Some deepening of a surface cyclone is expected in the vicinity of the lower Great Lakes in association with the ejecting midlevel trough, and a weak cold front will progress eastward across the Appalachians by this afternoon to the south of the deepening cyclone. The cyclone warm sector will not be particularly warm or moist, but a narrow zone of cloud breaks from southern PA into WV should allow surface temperatures to warm into the 70s with dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60. The warming surface temperatures and notable midlevel cooling/steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates (observed at ILN from 00 to 12z) will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range in a narrow zone immediately ahead of the weak cold front this afternoon. The specific location and evolution of the main severe threat is a bit uncertain given the presence of clouds and early convection, with the potential for the stronger storms to evolve from the leading edge of the ongoing convection in PA/WV, and farther west within the band of ascent. The weak buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates will combine with strengthening midlevel winds to provide an environment favorable for damaging winds with fast-moving, low-topped clusters/bands of convection spreading eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast through late afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail may also occur with any stronger storms/supercells given the long hodographs and cool midlevel temperatures, and low-level shear will be strong enough to support a low-end threat for a tornado or two. ...Southern Appalachians this afternoon... The southern fringe of the OH Valley midlevel trough will move over the southern Appalachians this afternoon, along with the remnant monsoonal moisture plume. Clouds/ongoing convection will tend to disrupt surface heating across northern AL/GA and southeast TN, and the southern fringe of the somewhat stronger forcing for ascent with the OH Valley trough is expected to pass over eastern KY/WV/VA. Thus, with modest buoyancy and the aforementioned concerns, storm coverage into the southern Appalachians is uncertain. Where storms form with afternoon heating in cloud breaks, there will be the potential for isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ...WI/southwest Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... The shortwave trough now approaching northern MN will reach WI later this afternoon/evening, and then continue southeastward to Lower MI tonight. Cooling midlevel temperatures, residual low-level moisture, and surface heating in cloud breaks will support the potential for low-topped thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon across WI. Lapse rates will be sufficiently steep and midlevel flow sufficiently strong for a low-end threat for wind damage. Despite arrival after the diurnal cycle, the threat for isolated wind damage could persist across Lake MI into southwest Lower MI, where the relatively warm lake will help maintain weak buoyancy and low-level lapse rates after sunset. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/25/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms producing damaging winds and severe hail are expected across portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon through evening. ...Mid-Atlantic and vicinity through this evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the upper OH Valley will eject eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, in response to an upstream shortwave trough digging south-southeastward from MB toward the upper MS Valley. Some deepening of a surface cyclone is expected in the vicinity of the lower Great Lakes in association with the ejecting midlevel trough, and a weak cold front will progress eastward across the Appalachians by this afternoon to the south of the deepening cyclone. The cyclone warm sector will not be particularly warm or moist, but a narrow zone of cloud breaks from southern PA into WV should allow surface temperatures to warm into the 70s with dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60. The warming surface temperatures and notable midlevel cooling/steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates (observed at ILN from 00 to 12z) will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range in a narrow zone immediately ahead of the weak cold front this afternoon. The specific location and evolution of the main severe threat is a bit uncertain given the presence of clouds and early convection, with the potential for the stronger storms to evolve from the leading edge of the ongoing convection in PA/WV, and farther west within the band of ascent. The weak buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates will combine with strengthening midlevel winds to provide an environment favorable for damaging winds with fast-moving, low-topped clusters/bands of convection spreading eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast through late afternoon/evening. Isolated large hail may also occur with any stronger storms/supercells given the long hodographs and cool midlevel temperatures, and low-level shear will be strong enough to support a low-end threat for a tornado or two. ...Southern Appalachians this afternoon... The southern fringe of the OH Valley midlevel trough will move over the southern Appalachians this afternoon, along with the remnant monsoonal moisture plume. Clouds/ongoing convection will tend to disrupt surface heating across northern AL/GA and southeast TN, and the southern fringe of the somewhat stronger forcing for ascent with the OH Valley trough is expected to pass over eastern KY/WV/VA. Thus, with modest buoyancy and the aforementioned concerns, storm coverage into the southern Appalachians is uncertain. Where storms form with afternoon heating in cloud breaks, there will be the potential for isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ...WI/southwest Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... The shortwave trough now approaching northern MN will reach WI later this afternoon/evening, and then continue southeastward to Lower MI tonight. Cooling midlevel temperatures, residual low-level moisture, and surface heating in cloud breaks will support the potential for low-topped thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon across WI. Lapse rates will be sufficiently steep and midlevel flow sufficiently strong for a low-end threat for wind damage. Despite arrival after the diurnal cycle, the threat for isolated wind damage could persist across Lake MI into southwest Lower MI, where the relatively warm lake will help maintain weak buoyancy and low-level lapse rates after sunset. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/25/2022 Read more

MD 1823 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN WV...SOUTHWEST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1823 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Areas affected...Southern WV...Southwest VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251614Z - 251815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms are expected to continue eastward into more of southern WV and western VA over the next few hours. A few strong gusts and isolated hail may accompany these storms. Convective trends will be monitored closely for the possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown in increase in storm intensity and coverage across southern WV and the KY/VA border vicinity. This increase appears to be associated with strengthening forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough moving through the upper OH Valley. Brief clearing ahead of the ascent has allowed temperatures to increase into the mid to upper 60s. Even so, dewpoints remain in the mid 50s and the overall thermodynamic profile is characterized by modest buoyancy and relatively low EL heights. This should result in predominantly low-topped storms. Recent mesoanalysis places a corridor of 60 kt 500-mb winds from eastern KY through western VA. Fast (i.e. 40+ kt) storm motion is expected as a result, as well as the potential for a few stronger wind gusts as the storms move through. As such, damaging gusts will be the main severe threat, although isolated hail is also possible within robust updrafts given the cold mid-level temperatures. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 09/25/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 37518209 38068128 38278036 37937919 37057941 36588046 36638297 37518209 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 24 18:00:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 24 18:00:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the mid-latitude Pacific into North America. This includes prominent ridging building across the Pacific coast through the Rockies and, by late Sunday into Sunday night, a significant short wave trough digging downstream, across the Upper Midwest into Ohio Valley. A preceding short wave trough is forecast to accelerate east of the lower Ohio Valley, before turning northeastward across the northern Mid Atlantic states and New England, within larger-scale troughing evolving across the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. Models suggest that this evolving regime will be accompanied by the development of a broad surface low across parts of the lower Great Lakes into St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, and a reinforcing intrusion of cooler and/or drier air across much of the nation east of the Rockies Sunday through Sunday night. However, this is occurring in the wake of a substantive prior intrusion of cool/dry air, and in the wake of the Fiona, which is forecast to migrate north of the Canadian Maritimes into the Labrador Sea. As a result, it appears that low-level forcing for ascent and moisture return within the warm sector of the developing low will remain limited, which may tend to suppress the potential for vigorous thunderstorm development during this period. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... The mid-level cold pool, and forcing for ascent in the exit region of the strong mid-level jet streak accompanying the lead short wave perturbation, seem likely to become the primary focus for any strong thunderstorm development Sunday. As the wave shifts east of the mid/upper Ohio Valley by midday, toward the northern Mid Atlantic coast through early evening, it appears that boundary-layer destabilization will remain rather modest. CAPE is generally forecast to peak around or below 500 J/kg along a developing warm frontal zone across parts of central and eastern Pennsylvania into Long Island/southern New England, and below 1000 J/kg ahead of the developing cold front across the Allegheny Plateau vicinity. However, this could be sufficient to support scattered thunderstorm development and, in the presence of strong shear (beneath 30-70+ kt flow in the 850-500 mb layer), at least some potential for organized severe thunderstorm development. This may include isolated to widely scattered supercells, particularly along the warm frontal zone, where various model output suggests that low-level hodographs might become supportive of the risk for a tornado or two, before convection wanes by Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 09/24/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will develop from the Mid-Atlantic into the Great Lakes while the western upper-level trough will amplify today. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will reside across the northern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will slow its southward progression within the southern Plains while continuing to the east into the Ohio Valley. Fire weather concerns continue to appear low. Post-frontal downslope winds could approach 20 mph in southeastern Wyoming as well as parts of western/central Nebraska. RH will be lowest near the lee of the higher terrain, but 20% is possible farther east as well. With fuel dryness being mitigated by recent rainfall, elevated conditions that do develop will be localized. Lack of rain fall in Oklahoma has kept fuels dry. Southwesterly winds ahead of the front could reach 15-20 mph briefly. However, RH reductions will likely be marginal. Again, fire weather concerns will be localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MO...NORTHEASTERN AR...WESTERN TN AND NORTHWESTERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail may occur this evening across extreme southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent areas of western Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi. ...Northeast AR and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... Around the southwestern periphery of a midlevel trough over the Great Lakes, an embedded speed max will dig southeastward from the northern High Plains to the mid MS Valley by tonight. In advance of this speed max, low-level moisture will continue to spread northeastward from east TX to AR and southern MO, south of a weak front/wind shift that now extends from southern KS eastward into southern MO. With daytime heating/mixing in cloud breaks, MLCAPE will increase to near 1500 J/kg, in an environment with effective bulk shear of 35-45 kt with straight hodographs. This will conditionally favor splitting supercells by this evening from extreme southeast MO into northeast AR. The main concern in this area is the specific focus for storm development this afternoon/evening. A band of mid clouds will likely persist from OK into northern AR as part of a remnant monsoonal moisture plume from the southern Rockies, and these clouds will mute surface heating in a zone immediately south of the subtle front/wind shift. Thus, with relatively subtle forcing for ascent, at least isolated thunderstorm development is possible both north and south of this cloud band on the wind shift and south in the differential heating zone, depending on how persistent the thicker clouds will be through the afternoon. The degree of surface heating/mixing will drive low-level lapse rates, downdraft potential, and any resultant threat for wind damage. Given the potential for splitting supercells with long hodographs, isolated hail may also occur. Given the subtle nature of the ascent and the mesoscale influence/location of the cloud band, will maintain a broader MRGL area, but acknowledge the potential for two separate, smaller corridors of wind/hail threat from mid-late afternoon into this evening. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/24/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 23 17:47:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 23 17:47:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA CENTERED ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening from parts of Arkansas into adjacent portions of the Missouri Bootheel, western Tennessee, and northwest Mississippi. Isolated damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary threat. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max over MT early Saturday morning will quickly move east-southeast to the mid MS Valley by early Sunday morning. In the low levels, surface high pressure initially over the Appalachians will move east of the Carolina coast, while weak return flow in response to weak low pressure develops over the MS Valley before moving into the Great Lakes late. The southern portion of stronger westerlies will overspread a weak to moderately unstable (750-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) warm sector centered over AR. The latest model guidance indicates isolated to perhaps widely scattered storms developing late Saturday afternoon into the early evening from central AR northeastward to the MO Bootheel region. A couple of the storms could yield strong locally damaging gusts before this activity weakens after sunset. Elsewhere, general thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Great Lakes/OH Valley, southern half of the FL Peninsula, and portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Smith.. 09/23/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast is on track. See discussion below for more details. ..Thornton/Weinman.. 09/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward through the northern Plains into parts of the upper Midwest today. Farther west, ridging aloft will begin to amplify along the western coast. At the surface, a cold front will move out onto the northern and central Plains. High pressure will increase within the intermountain West. Localized elevated conditions are possible from central Montana into northeastern Colorado as downslope winds increase to around 20 mph. Some areas may experience RH as low as 15-20%. Given recent precipitation, significant fire potential will be low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Within the primary branch of the westerlies, a midlevel shortwave trough will move east-southeastward from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest by tonight. Low-level moisture return remains quite limited across the Plains in advance of an associated lee trough, as a result of a prior frontal intrusion to the Gulf coast. Very weak buoyancy within a midlevel moisture plume across KS/NE, in combination with relatively steep midlevel lapse rates from NE into the eastern Dakotas, could be sufficient for isolated/elevated thunderstorms in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms are expected along the primary baroclinic zone across central FL, and within the lingering monsoonal moisture plume with daytime heating over the higher terrain in AZ/NM this afternoon. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 09/23/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 22 17:52:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 22 17:52:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected over the continental United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level anticyclone will remain over the southern Great Plains while a mid-level trough will progress east across the northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. A narrow moist sector resulting in weak instability may result in a few thunderstorms across the eastern Dakotas and parts of the Upper Midwest. Elsewhere, general thunderstorms are also forecast across the FL Peninsula and the Desert Southwest. Weak buoyancy/shear will preclude organized severe thunderstorms. ..Smith.. 09/22/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Morning observations show winds across the Columbia Basin sustained at 10-15 mph, gusting to around 20 mph, with temperatures warming into the mid 50s to 60s. Through the afternoon, increasing westerly winds and downslope warming and drying could lead to elevated fire-weather conditions. See discussion below for more details. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 09/22/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022/ ...Synopsis... A closed mid/upper-level low will cross the northern Rockies, while an expansive large-scale ridge remains centered over TX. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending southward along the central High Plains. ...Columbia Basin... On the backside of the mid/upper-level low, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, favoring dry/breezy conditions across the Columbia Basin. Here, 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coupled with 20-25 percent RH (aided by downslope warming/drying) will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Northern/Central Rockies and Adjacent Plains... Breezy southerly surface winds will develop across the northern and central Plains in response to the lee troughing, while strong westerly surface winds are expected over WY. For the Plains, a minimal overlap of strong surface winds and low RH should generally mitigate the fire-weather threat, though locally elevated conditions could still occur where fuels are dry. Over WY, a corridor of strong westerly surface winds could overlap dry boundary-layer conditions, though recent/ongoing precipitation casts uncertainty on fuel receptiveness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTHEAST WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds remain possible this afternoon from coastal southern New England into eastern North Carolina. Isolated marginally severe hail/wind may also occur across a portion of southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming later this afternoon. ...Southern New England to NC... Potential still exists for convection to briefly strengthen from NJ to southern New England. A confined corridor of robust insolation from NJ southward yielded surface temperatures warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s just ahead of mixed convective/stratiform frontal rain bands. The time-window for convection to intensify before the front shifts off the coast is limited to the next hour or two, but strong deep-layer flow will support a conditional damaging wind threat along the immediate coastal areas. From the Delmarva into eastern NC, a longer duration period of robust boundary-layer heating will yield very warm surface temperatures and a relatively deeper mixed boundary-layer. Observed 12Z soundings sampled very poor 600-400 mb lapse rates south of the intense mid-level jet centered across the Mid-Atlantic to New England, where 500-mb temps were -4 to -6 C. This suggests convection developing along the trailing extent of the cold front impinging from the northwest will struggle to deepen and produce lightning. By late afternoon, there may just enough slight cooling aloft coupled with peak boundary-layer heating to support a few stronger gusts in convection that spreads towards the coast through early evening. ...Southeast MT and northeast WY... A shortwave trough centered on northwest MT will gradually shift east across the state through the period. While a leading lobe of ascent is moving through eastern MT late this morning, the next lobe will shift east-northeast from the Yellowstone/Upper Snake Valley area. A pocket of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop between these two waves in the lee of the Big Horns where steepening mid-level lapse rates overspread modest boundary-layer heating. Although forecast soundings indicate pronounced weaknesses in the hodograph through 600 mb where surface-based storms are expected, strong speed shear above that will yield potential for a few cells with transient mid-level rotation. Marginally severe hail and isolated strong to localized severe wind gusts will be possible for a few hours centered on late afternoon. ..Grams/Lyons.. 09/22/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 21 18:05:02 UTC 2022.