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1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS
AND NORTHWEST MO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity
this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts
of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early,
transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk
overnight.
...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro
Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more
numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley
through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable
environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow
and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the
past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived
supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley
corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail
and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further
strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening.
The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably
evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A
mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected
as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards
the MO/IL/IA border area.
..Grams.. 03/14/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS
AND NORTHWEST MO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity
this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts
of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early,
transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk
overnight.
...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro
Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more
numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley
through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable
environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow
and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the
past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived
supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley
corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail
and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further
strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening.
The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably
evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A
mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected
as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards
the MO/IL/IA border area.
..Grams.. 03/14/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS
AND NORTHWEST MO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity
this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts
of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early,
transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk
overnight.
...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro
Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more
numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley
through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable
environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow
and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the
past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived
supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley
corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail
and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further
strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening.
The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably
evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A
mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected
as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards
the MO/IL/IA border area.
..Grams.. 03/14/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS
AND NORTHWEST MO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity
this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts
of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early,
transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk
overnight.
...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro
Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more
numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley
through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable
environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow
and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the
past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived
supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley
corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail
and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further
strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening.
The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably
evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A
mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected
as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards
the MO/IL/IA border area.
..Grams.. 03/14/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS
AND NORTHWEST MO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity
this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts
of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early,
transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk
overnight.
...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro
Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more
numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley
through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable
environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow
and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the
past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived
supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley
corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail
and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further
strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening.
The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably
evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A
mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected
as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards
the MO/IL/IA border area.
..Grams.. 03/14/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS
AND NORTHWEST MO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity
this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts
of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early,
transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk
overnight.
...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley...
Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro
Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more
numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley
through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable
environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow
and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the
past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived
supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley
corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail
and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further
strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening.
The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably
evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A
mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected
as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards
the MO/IL/IA border area.
..Grams.. 03/14/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
MD 0221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132331Z - 140100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Conditional severe risk through the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Towering cu can be observed near the dryline across
northeastern Oklahoma as of 23z. Convective initiation within this
region has be subdued by a strong mid-level capping inversion in
place much of the afternoon. Surface objective analysis would
indicate some weakening of the mid-level capping north of the I-40
corridor, further supported in cumulus fields across eastern Osage
County and Pottawatomie/Lincoln County. Low level moisture remains
limited, which is likely leading to very high cloud bases. Should a
thunderstorm develop, the main threats would be for isolated large
hail and gusty winds. Nonetheless, upper-level support is increasing
across the Oklahoma/Kansas border this evening. Overall, confidence
in thunderstorm development remains low and a watch is unlikely to
be needed.
..Thornton/Hart.. 03/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35599543 35949531 36459519 36959514 37569514 37699539
37729578 37709629 37399656 36879668 35999675 35269691
35219665 35279600 35599543
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
WW 0035 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MDH TO
35 WSW JEF TO 30 E SZL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
..THORNTON..03/14/24
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-013-027-083-119-133-163-189-140140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CALHOUN CLINTON
JERSEY MADISON MONROE
ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON
MOC007-019-027-051-071-073-099-113-135-137-139-151-163-173-183-
189-219-510-140140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
COLE FRANKLIN GASCONADE
JEFFERSON LINCOLN MONITEAU
MONROE MONTGOMERY OSAGE
PIKE RALLS ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS WARREN
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/14/24
ATTN...WFO...TOP...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 36
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC013-027-029-051-053-063-065-089-105-117-123-131-137-141-143-
147-157-163-167-169-179-183-195-201-140140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CLAY CLOUD
ELLIS ELLSWORTH GOVE
GRAHAM JEWELL LINCOLN
MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA
NORTON OSBORNE OTTAWA
PHILLIPS REPUBLIC ROOKS
RUSSELL SALINE SHERIDAN
SMITH TREGO WASHINGTON
NEC061-067-083-095-097-127-129-133-147-169-181-140140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN GAGE HARLAN
JEFFERSON JOHNSON NEMAHA
NUCKOLLS PAWNEE RICHARDSON
THAYER WEBSTER
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
WW 0037 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 37
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/14/24
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 37
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-111-121-127-139-
149-161-177-197-209-140140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON COFFEY DICKINSON
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON
MIAMI MORRIS OSAGE
POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE
MOC003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-087-089-095-101-
107-115-117-121-159-165-175-177-195-140140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL
CARROLL CASS CHARITON
CLAY CLINTON COOPER
DAVIESS DEKALB HOLT
HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
MD 0221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132331Z - 140100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Conditional severe risk through the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Towering cu can be observed near the dryline across
northeastern Oklahoma as of 23z. Convective initiation within this
region has be subdued by a strong mid-level capping inversion in
place much of the afternoon. Surface objective analysis would
indicate some weakening of the mid-level capping north of the I-40
corridor, further supported in cumulus fields across eastern Osage
County and Pottawatomie/Lincoln County. Low level moisture remains
limited, which is likely leading to very high cloud bases. Should a
thunderstorm develop, the main threats would be for isolated large
hail and gusty winds. Nonetheless, upper-level support is increasing
across the Oklahoma/Kansas border this evening. Overall, confidence
in thunderstorm development remains low and a watch is unlikely to
be needed.
..Thornton/Hart.. 03/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35599543 35949531 36459519 36959514 37569514 37699539
37729578 37709629 37399656 36879668 35999675 35269691
35219665 35279600 35599543
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
WW 0035 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 35
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THORNTON..03/13/24
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-013-027-083-119-133-157-163-189-140040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CALHOUN CLINTON
JERSEY MADISON MONROE
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON
MOC007-019-027-051-055-071-073-099-113-125-131-135-137-139-141-
151-161-163-173-183-186-187-189-219-221-510-140040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
COLE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
GASCONADE JEFFERSON LINCOLN
MARIES MILLER MONITEAU
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
OSAGE PHELPS PIKE
RALLS ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS WARREN
WASHINGTON
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
MD 0220 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 37... FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Northern Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 37...
Valid 132329Z - 140130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 37 continues.
SUMMARY...A potential for very large hail, wind damage and a tornado
or two is expected to develop across parts of northeast Kansas over
the next hour, extending eastward into parts of north-central
Missouri.
DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Topeka shows a
cluster of intensifying convection across parts Geary and Morris
Counties in Kansas. These cells are expected to grow upscale into a
rotating storm over the next hour. Any storm that can become mature
should eventually turn to the right to a more east-northeasterly
direction. RAP analysis suggests this convection is near a maximum
in instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to above 2000 J/kg. In
addition, the Topeka WSR-88D VWP has veering winds with height in
the lowest 2 km, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. This, along with
0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range will
support supercell development. Very large hail and a tornado will be
possible with this storm, or with additional intense cells that
mature over the next hour or two.
Additional storms are expected to develop further to the east, from
near the Kansas City Metro eastward into north-central Missouri.
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, along with moderate
deep-layer shear, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, evident on
forecast soundings, will also likely support supercell development.
Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, although a
brief tornado will be possible.
..Broyles.. 03/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 38689488 38619597 38669644 38959677 39359665 39489620
39499490 39459354 39359322 39089310 38749329 38719364
38689488
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
WW 35 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 132050Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 35
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Illinois
Central and Eastern Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to increase across the region late this afternoon through
early evening, including parts of the I-70/I-55 corridors. Large
hail is expected to be the most common risk, with some potential for
damaging winds and possibly a tornado into early evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of
Columbia MO to 20 miles east of Scott Afb IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
22025.
...Guyer
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 13 23:01:02 UTC 2024.
1 year 6 months ago
WW 0037 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0037 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
WW 0037 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0037 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
WW 37 TORNADO KS MO 132245Z - 140600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 37
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
545 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Kansas
Northern Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from
545 PM until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will affect the watch area through
the evening, with a few supercells possible. Very large hail and a
tornado or two may occur with the strongest cells.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles southwest of Manhattan KS to
60 miles east southeast of Chillicothe MO. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 35...WW 36...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.
...Hart
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
MD 0219 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast kansas and
western Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 132054Z - 132300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected late this
afternoon along a warm-frontal corridor across northern KS and
western MO. Supercells capable of hazards are likely. A WW will
likely be needed late this afternoon or early this evening.
DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, regional satellite showed a steadily
deepening cumulus field along a sharpening warm-frontal zone across
parts of northern KS and western MO. Towering cumulus was also noted
along a trailing dryline into parts of southeastern KS. Water-vapor
imagery shows large-scale ascent from a passing shortwave-trough
will move overhead late this afternoon and continue through the
evening. With strong low-level moisture advection ongoing, the air
mass along and south of the front should continue to destabilize as
ascent and diurnal heating work to remove inhibition. Surface
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F should support 1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE with 40-50 kt of effective shear. Storm organization
into supercells appears likely.
Experimental WOFS and other Hi-res guidance suggest storm
development may be delayed until more robust ascent (currently
depicted over eastern CO/western KS) arrives late this afternoon
into the early evening hours. With 500 mb temperatures of -20 to -22
C and low/mid-level lapse rates of 8 C/km, severe hail (some 2+
inches) and damaging gusts appear likely with the strongest storms.
Initially the tornado threat is more uncertain given the relatively
modest boundary-layer moisture and storm motions potentially
crossing the front. However, backed surface winds and relatively
large forecast ESRH of 200-400 m2/s2 along the warm front may
support a risk for a couple tornadoes with the more organized
supercells. The tornado threat should increase into the evening as
dewpoint spreads decrease and hodographs enlarge coincident with
enhancement of the nocturnal low-level jet.
Given the increasingly favorable environment for severe storms, a
weather watch will be needed sometime this afternoon. Exact timing
may be somewhat uncertain, but current projections suggest storm
initiation is possible by 22-23z.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 03/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 38049610 38499728 38729809 38889839 39319849 39769806
40149717 40209671 40239591 40209526 40059456 39719332
39129257 38799264 38319322 38059511 38049610
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
WW 0035 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 35
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THORNTON..03/13/24
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-013-027-083-119-133-157-163-189-132340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CALHOUN CLINTON
JERSEY MADISON MONROE
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON
MOC007-019-027-051-055-071-073-099-113-125-131-135-137-139-141-
151-161-163-173-183-186-187-189-219-221-510-132340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
COLE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
GASCONADE JEFFERSON LINCOLN
MARIES MILLER MONITEAU
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
OSAGE PHELPS PIKE
RALLS ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS WARREN
WASHINGTON
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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