Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will continue to cover most of the CONUS, anchored by a large cyclone over the southern Hudson Bay region. A series of shortwaves will pass through this flow -- predominantly across the central/northern Plains, mid/upper Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes. Farther south, a broad fetch of west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the Gulf and FL, with an embedded, weak shortwave trough initially evident in moisture-channel imagery over the west-central Gulf. This perturbation is expected to cross the FL Peninsula around 00Z. Meanwhile, a warm front -- analyzed at 11Z from near Cape Canaveral across coastal south FL then west-northwestward to a frontal-wave low over the northwestern Gulf -- will shift/redevelop northward up the peninsula through midday, stalling across central FL this afternoon. Though near-surface flow will be modest on both sides of the front, enough lift should occur in the frontal zone, with diurnal heating on the warm side and weak midlevel lift preceding the Gulf shortwave trough, to support scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms today into this evening. Rich warm-sector moisture -- with surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F -- will offset modest midlevel lapse rates enough for around 1000- 1500 J/kg MLCAPE south of the front. Elevated MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is possible within about 50-75 nm north of the boundary. Weak low-level flow (in the absence of stronger large-scale forcing) will keep hodographs rather small, but amidst effective-shear vectors commonly in the 35-45-kt range. As such, one or two of the cells in the precip area may exhibit supercell characteristics briefly. However, weakness of both lapse rates and low-level shear preclude enough severe potential for an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will continue to cover most of the CONUS, anchored by a large cyclone over the southern Hudson Bay region. A series of shortwaves will pass through this flow -- predominantly across the central/northern Plains, mid/upper Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes. Farther south, a broad fetch of west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the Gulf and FL, with an embedded, weak shortwave trough initially evident in moisture-channel imagery over the west-central Gulf. This perturbation is expected to cross the FL Peninsula around 00Z. Meanwhile, a warm front -- analyzed at 11Z from near Cape Canaveral across coastal south FL then west-northwestward to a frontal-wave low over the northwestern Gulf -- will shift/redevelop northward up the peninsula through midday, stalling across central FL this afternoon. Though near-surface flow will be modest on both sides of the front, enough lift should occur in the frontal zone, with diurnal heating on the warm side and weak midlevel lift preceding the Gulf shortwave trough, to support scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms today into this evening. Rich warm-sector moisture -- with surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F -- will offset modest midlevel lapse rates enough for around 1000- 1500 J/kg MLCAPE south of the front. Elevated MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is possible within about 50-75 nm north of the boundary. Weak low-level flow (in the absence of stronger large-scale forcing) will keep hodographs rather small, but amidst effective-shear vectors commonly in the 35-45-kt range. As such, one or two of the cells in the precip area may exhibit supercell characteristics briefly. However, weakness of both lapse rates and low-level shear preclude enough severe potential for an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will continue to cover most of the CONUS, anchored by a large cyclone over the southern Hudson Bay region. A series of shortwaves will pass through this flow -- predominantly across the central/northern Plains, mid/upper Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes. Farther south, a broad fetch of west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the Gulf and FL, with an embedded, weak shortwave trough initially evident in moisture-channel imagery over the west-central Gulf. This perturbation is expected to cross the FL Peninsula around 00Z. Meanwhile, a warm front -- analyzed at 11Z from near Cape Canaveral across coastal south FL then west-northwestward to a frontal-wave low over the northwestern Gulf -- will shift/redevelop northward up the peninsula through midday, stalling across central FL this afternoon. Though near-surface flow will be modest on both sides of the front, enough lift should occur in the frontal zone, with diurnal heating on the warm side and weak midlevel lift preceding the Gulf shortwave trough, to support scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms today into this evening. Rich warm-sector moisture -- with surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F -- will offset modest midlevel lapse rates enough for around 1000- 1500 J/kg MLCAPE south of the front. Elevated MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is possible within about 50-75 nm north of the boundary. Weak low-level flow (in the absence of stronger large-scale forcing) will keep hodographs rather small, but amidst effective-shear vectors commonly in the 35-45-kt range. As such, one or two of the cells in the precip area may exhibit supercell characteristics briefly. However, weakness of both lapse rates and low-level shear preclude enough severe potential for an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/15/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front will move across the central Gulf coast states and Florida on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. While some modest Gulf moisture will move along the coast and the FL Peninsula, thermodynamic profiles overall are forecast to remain poor. Isolated thunderstorms may occur, but severe potential is expected to remain low. Otherwise, strong surface high pressure building over the Plains early in the period will migrate east through the weekend, and an intrusion of a cold/dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front will move across the central Gulf coast states and Florida on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. While some modest Gulf moisture will move along the coast and the FL Peninsula, thermodynamic profiles overall are forecast to remain poor. Isolated thunderstorms may occur, but severe potential is expected to remain low. Otherwise, strong surface high pressure building over the Plains early in the period will migrate east through the weekend, and an intrusion of a cold/dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front will move across the central Gulf coast states and Florida on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. While some modest Gulf moisture will move along the coast and the FL Peninsula, thermodynamic profiles overall are forecast to remain poor. Isolated thunderstorms may occur, but severe potential is expected to remain low. Otherwise, strong surface high pressure building over the Plains early in the period will migrate east through the weekend, and an intrusion of a cold/dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front will move across the central Gulf coast states and Florida on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. While some modest Gulf moisture will move along the coast and the FL Peninsula, thermodynamic profiles overall are forecast to remain poor. Isolated thunderstorms may occur, but severe potential is expected to remain low. Otherwise, strong surface high pressure building over the Plains early in the period will migrate east through the weekend, and an intrusion of a cold/dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front will move across the central Gulf coast states and Florida on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. While some modest Gulf moisture will move along the coast and the FL Peninsula, thermodynamic profiles overall are forecast to remain poor. Isolated thunderstorms may occur, but severe potential is expected to remain low. Otherwise, strong surface high pressure building over the Plains early in the period will migrate east through the weekend, and an intrusion of a cold/dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front will move across the central Gulf coast states and Florida on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. While some modest Gulf moisture will move along the coast and the FL Peninsula, thermodynamic profiles overall are forecast to remain poor. Isolated thunderstorms may occur, but severe potential is expected to remain low. Otherwise, strong surface high pressure building over the Plains early in the period will migrate east through the weekend, and an intrusion of a cold/dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday morning will develop southeast to the central/southern Plains vicinity by early Thursday. In response, lee low development is forecast over the central/southern High Plains. A weak surface low will migrate along the Red River (OK/TX) overnight. The resulting southerly low-level flow will foster some modest Gulf moisture returning to the immediate TX coast by the end of the period. However, an antecedent dry/cold airmass over much of the CONUS prior to this late-period return flow will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday morning will develop southeast to the central/southern Plains vicinity by early Thursday. In response, lee low development is forecast over the central/southern High Plains. A weak surface low will migrate along the Red River (OK/TX) overnight. The resulting southerly low-level flow will foster some modest Gulf moisture returning to the immediate TX coast by the end of the period. However, an antecedent dry/cold airmass over much of the CONUS prior to this late-period return flow will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday morning will develop southeast to the central/southern Plains vicinity by early Thursday. In response, lee low development is forecast over the central/southern High Plains. A weak surface low will migrate along the Red River (OK/TX) overnight. The resulting southerly low-level flow will foster some modest Gulf moisture returning to the immediate TX coast by the end of the period. However, an antecedent dry/cold airmass over much of the CONUS prior to this late-period return flow will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday morning will develop southeast to the central/southern Plains vicinity by early Thursday. In response, lee low development is forecast over the central/southern High Plains. A weak surface low will migrate along the Red River (OK/TX) overnight. The resulting southerly low-level flow will foster some modest Gulf moisture returning to the immediate TX coast by the end of the period. However, an antecedent dry/cold airmass over much of the CONUS prior to this late-period return flow will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday morning will develop southeast to the central/southern Plains vicinity by early Thursday. In response, lee low development is forecast over the central/southern High Plains. A weak surface low will migrate along the Red River (OK/TX) overnight. The resulting southerly low-level flow will foster some modest Gulf moisture returning to the immediate TX coast by the end of the period. However, an antecedent dry/cold airmass over much of the CONUS prior to this late-period return flow will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Florida Peninsula... Broad upper troughing will be in place east of the Rockies on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within larger-scale flow will pivot east/southeast from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure over eastern NC will lift north/northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. A trailing cold front will be oriented from eastern NC south/southeast along the SC/GA coast and into the FL Panhandle during the morning. Ahead of the front, 60s F dewpoints will be in place across much of the FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly 850-700 mb flow will promote continued warm advection across the region, as the surface front develops southeast. Typically, effective shear values near/above 40 kt would support organized thunderstorms with some risk for severe. However, weak boundary-layer heating and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. Furthermore, deep-layer flow parallel to the front will likely result in storms that develop near the front quickly becoming undercut. Finally, any stronger ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough will remain north of the Peninsula and poorly timed with the front. Isolated thunderstorms, and one or two stronger storms producing gusty winds, will be possible. However, overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Florida Peninsula... Broad upper troughing will be in place east of the Rockies on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within larger-scale flow will pivot east/southeast from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure over eastern NC will lift north/northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. A trailing cold front will be oriented from eastern NC south/southeast along the SC/GA coast and into the FL Panhandle during the morning. Ahead of the front, 60s F dewpoints will be in place across much of the FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly 850-700 mb flow will promote continued warm advection across the region, as the surface front develops southeast. Typically, effective shear values near/above 40 kt would support organized thunderstorms with some risk for severe. However, weak boundary-layer heating and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. Furthermore, deep-layer flow parallel to the front will likely result in storms that develop near the front quickly becoming undercut. Finally, any stronger ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough will remain north of the Peninsula and poorly timed with the front. Isolated thunderstorms, and one or two stronger storms producing gusty winds, will be possible. However, overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Florida Peninsula... Broad upper troughing will be in place east of the Rockies on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within larger-scale flow will pivot east/southeast from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure over eastern NC will lift north/northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. A trailing cold front will be oriented from eastern NC south/southeast along the SC/GA coast and into the FL Panhandle during the morning. Ahead of the front, 60s F dewpoints will be in place across much of the FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly 850-700 mb flow will promote continued warm advection across the region, as the surface front develops southeast. Typically, effective shear values near/above 40 kt would support organized thunderstorms with some risk for severe. However, weak boundary-layer heating and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. Furthermore, deep-layer flow parallel to the front will likely result in storms that develop near the front quickly becoming undercut. Finally, any stronger ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough will remain north of the Peninsula and poorly timed with the front. Isolated thunderstorms, and one or two stronger storms producing gusty winds, will be possible. However, overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Florida Peninsula... Broad upper troughing will be in place east of the Rockies on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within larger-scale flow will pivot east/southeast from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure over eastern NC will lift north/northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. A trailing cold front will be oriented from eastern NC south/southeast along the SC/GA coast and into the FL Panhandle during the morning. Ahead of the front, 60s F dewpoints will be in place across much of the FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly 850-700 mb flow will promote continued warm advection across the region, as the surface front develops southeast. Typically, effective shear values near/above 40 kt would support organized thunderstorms with some risk for severe. However, weak boundary-layer heating and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. Furthermore, deep-layer flow parallel to the front will likely result in storms that develop near the front quickly becoming undercut. Finally, any stronger ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough will remain north of the Peninsula and poorly timed with the front. Isolated thunderstorms, and one or two stronger storms producing gusty winds, will be possible. However, overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more