Severe Storms

WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0047 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0236 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0236 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of Indiana and western Ohio and far southern Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142036Z - 142230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Afternoon satellite imagery shows rapid air mass recovery is ongoing across parts of IN and western OH. New storm development over north-central IL may expand eastward into IN and OH/MI, though this is uncertain. Supercells with all hazards are possible and a new WW is possible in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Across parts of IN and OH the air mass in the wake of an early day MCS is rapidly recovering. With ample diurnal heating, surface temperatures have warmed into the low 70s F with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F. Several modified outflow/differential heating boundaries are present supporting ample mesoscale lift for storm initiation within the destabilizing air mass. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE has developed with 50-60 kt of effective shear. Storm organization (should development continue) into supercells or short bowing segments is probable. Mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C and the strong vertical shear will favor large hail (especially with rotating updrafts), damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. However, confidence in the development and the timing of robust storm development is modest given the air mass resides in the cold pool of the earlier MCS. Stable wave clouds and the relatively limited depth of boundary-layer CU are noted over much of IN, while more robust vertical development is confined to the differential heating axis/modified outflow. Forecaster experience suggests storms may struggle to become established initially with broad, albeit weak, synoptic decent likely ongoing behind the former MCS. Still, numerous CAM solutions and ongoing convection upstream over eastern MO and IL suggests storm development is possible. Stronger, more established convection over eastern MO may also move into southern/central IN later this afternoon/evening. Given the environment with expanding hodographs and favorable buoyancy this evening, these storms would pose a risk for all hazards. With confidence in the evolution in mind, convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch of portions of IN and western OH in the next couple of hours. ..Lyons/Goss.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT... ILX... LAT...LON 38348725 38348746 38308772 38458773 39038760 40298756 40768753 41478705 41748636 41868487 41758388 41718322 41438297 41058298 40698319 39518477 38798636 38348725 Read more

WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0046 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0237 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 42...43... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST TX INTO EASTERN OK...AR...AND SOUTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0237 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of far northeast TX into eastern OK...AR...and southern MO Concerning...Tornado Watch 42...43... Valid 142050Z - 142215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 42, 43 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat may be increasing across parts of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. A large hail and tornado threat continues with any discrete thunderstorms. Depending on convective trends, a new/downstream watch may eventually be needed for parts of western Arkansas and vicinity. DISCUSSION...Convection has generally grown upscale into multiple bowing clusters across parts of east-central OK, northwestern AR, and southern MO. Severe/damaging winds up to 50-70 mph should become an increasing concern with this mainly linear convection. Still, some threat for large hail and a couple tornadoes should persist with any supercells that can remain discrete, or embedded within the clusters, given modest but sufficient low-level shear and strong deep-layer shear. Some attempts at robust convective development have recently been noted across southeastern OK, with associated threat for large to very large hail. Depending on convective trends, additional watch issuance may be needed for parts of western/southern AR, extreme southeastern OK, and vicinity over the next couple of hours. ..Gleason/Goss.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33679631 34339699 35119606 36209412 36729393 37479378 37619292 37439181 37069131 36249153 34739248 33889334 33459402 33509506 33679631 Read more

MD 0235 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0235 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142016Z - 142215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind risk may exist with any thunderstorms that can develop. Watch issuance is not expected in the short term. DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have recently formed across southeast MS, on the eastern edge of the unstable warm sector across the lower MS Valley. Additional convective development appears possible over the next couple of hours across parts of central into northern MS where the cu field is gradually becoming more agitated in some locations. Large-scale forcing across this region remains fairly weak, but a weak southern-stream shortwave trough should continue to advance northeastward across LA/MS this afternoon, which may encourage additional development. Recent VWPs from KDGX/KGWX show weak low-level southerly flow gradually veering and strengthening with height through mid levels, with deep-layer shear generally 25-35 kt (stronger with northward extent in MS). This should be sufficient for modest updraft organization and possible clustering with time. Occasional strong to damaging winds of 50-60 mph may occur with the more robust cores, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Given that the overall severe threat will likely remain quite isolated this afternoon, watch issuance is not expected in the short term. ..Gleason/Goss.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 32278855 31418886 31038952 31009019 31179075 32039093 33419063 34339021 34668972 34678913 34348851 33708827 32278855 Read more

MD 0238 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 43... FOR EASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0238 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into central Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 43... Valid 142055Z - 142200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Tornado Watch 43. Organizing supercells will pose an increasing risk for large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. DISCUSSION...As of 2055 UTC, radar and satellite observations showed maturing supercells ongoing across eastern MO near the St. Louis Metro. The downstream environment remains very favorable for supercells. These storms have shown increasingly strong mid-level rotation over the last hour. Area VAD wind profiles show long but straight, hodographs supportive of large to very large hail. Hail could exceed 2-3 inches in the strongest storms given very favorable shear and buoyancy distributions. Experimental WOFS guidance also suggests strong mid-level UH probabilities downstream of the evolving storms. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are also possible given the storm mode. Thus, the severe risk across WW43 continues. ..Lyons.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 38448795 39318760 40268763 40598809 40678908 40349002 39929091 39669162 39119217 38689212 37949137 37719071 37649023 37688954 38228842 38448795 Read more

WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0044 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0043 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 43 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237 ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-007-009-015-033-047-049-071-087-089-101-129-131-143- 142240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN FULTON JOHNSON MADISON MARION NEWTON SEARCY SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON ILC005-009-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-039-041-045- 047-049-051-055-061-077-079-081-083-101-107-115-117-119-121-125- 129-133-135-137-139-145-147-149-157-159-163-167-171-173-183-185- 189-191-142240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND BROWN CALHOUN CASS CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON Read more

WW 0042 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SPS TO 35 W ADM TO 30 SSW CQB TO 15 SSW BVO. ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-035-037-041-049-061-063-067-069- 077-079-085-091-095-097-099-101-107-111-115-121-123-125-127-131- 133-135-143-145-142140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARVIN HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER TXC097-181-237-337-497-142140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0042 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SPS TO 35 W ADM TO 30 SSW CQB TO 15 SSW BVO. ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-035-037-041-049-061-063-067-069- 077-079-085-091-095-097-099-101-107-111-115-121-123-125-127-131- 133-135-143-145-142140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARVIN HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER TXC097-181-237-337-497-142140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0042 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SPS TO 35 W ADM TO 30 SSW CQB TO 15 SSW BVO. ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-035-037-041-049-061-063-067-069- 077-079-085-091-095-097-099-101-107-111-115-121-123-125-127-131- 133-135-143-145-142140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARVIN HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER TXC097-181-237-337-497-142140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0042 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SPS TO 35 W ADM TO 30 SSW CQB TO 15 SSW BVO. ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-035-037-041-049-061-063-067-069- 077-079-085-091-095-097-099-101-107-111-115-121-123-125-127-131- 133-135-143-145-142140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARVIN HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER TXC097-181-237-337-497-142140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0042 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SPS TO 35 W ADM TO 30 SSW CQB TO 15 SSW BVO. ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-035-037-041-049-061-063-067-069- 077-079-085-091-095-097-099-101-107-111-115-121-123-125-127-131- 133-135-143-145-142140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARVIN HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER TXC097-181-237-337-497-142140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0042 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SPS TO 35 W ADM TO 30 SSW CQB TO 15 SSW BVO. ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 42 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-035-037-041-049-061-063-067-069- 077-079-085-091-095-097-099-101-107-111-115-121-123-125-127-131- 133-135-143-145-142140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARVIN HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER TXC097-181-237-337-497-142140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 42 TORNADO OK TX 141610Z - 142300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 42 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central/eastern Oklahoma North-central Texas * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1110 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, while posing a threat for very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Tulsa OK to 65 miles southwest of Sherman TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 40...WW 41... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason/Goss Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A cut-off low will persist across the Southwest this weekend and through the middle of next week. This will bring significant rainfall to much of the southern High Plains this weekend. Significant wetting of fuels in the region and a lack of any warm, dry, and breezy conditions will limit fire weather concerns through next week. ..Bentley.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A cut-off low will persist across the Southwest this weekend and through the middle of next week. This will bring significant rainfall to much of the southern High Plains this weekend. Significant wetting of fuels in the region and a lack of any warm, dry, and breezy conditions will limit fire weather concerns through next week. ..Bentley.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A cut-off low will persist across the Southwest this weekend and through the middle of next week. This will bring significant rainfall to much of the southern High Plains this weekend. Significant wetting of fuels in the region and a lack of any warm, dry, and breezy conditions will limit fire weather concerns through next week. ..Bentley.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A cut-off low will persist across the Southwest this weekend and through the middle of next week. This will bring significant rainfall to much of the southern High Plains this weekend. Significant wetting of fuels in the region and a lack of any warm, dry, and breezy conditions will limit fire weather concerns through next week. ..Bentley.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A cut-off low will persist across the Southwest this weekend and through the middle of next week. This will bring significant rainfall to much of the southern High Plains this weekend. Significant wetting of fuels in the region and a lack of any warm, dry, and breezy conditions will limit fire weather concerns through next week. ..Bentley.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more