Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A strong mid/upper-level low will meander across the James Bay region through the period, with an extensive fetch of cyclonic flow covering most of the CONUS. Most of the associated/embedded shortwave troughs will remain too removed from suitable low-level moisture/instability to influence thunder potential, with two exceptions: 1. A perturbation now located over parts of OH/IN, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England through 00Z. Associated strong large-scale scent/cooling aloft today will help to offset cool near-surface temperatures across parts of southern New England, generating weak surface-based buoyancy anyway, with MLCAPE up to about 100 J/kg. This will support a fast-moving band of low-topped convection extending above the -20 deg C isotherm at times, with isolated embedded thunder. Downdrafts in a few embedded cells may produce strong gusts via downward momentum transfer. However, given the weak instability, organized severe potential appears too low and conditional to justify a categorical area at this time. 2. A southern-stream shortwave trough and vorticity banner are apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the northwestern Gulf. This positively tilted feature will move rapidly eastward today, crossing central FL around 00Z and south FL shortly thereafter. Associated large-scale lift, atop a residual low-level frontal zone (surface boundary over the Straits/Bahamas), will overlap enough moisture to support sporadic lightning with cells embedded in a precip plume. MUCAPE of 300-500 J/kg is possible, with the Mexican EML previously over the region having advected away. Still, midlevel lapse rates will be weak, with low CAPE density. Enough deep shear may remain to support some convective organization, but lack of greater instability and lift will keep severe potential meager at most. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A strong mid/upper-level low will meander across the James Bay region through the period, with an extensive fetch of cyclonic flow covering most of the CONUS. Most of the associated/embedded shortwave troughs will remain too removed from suitable low-level moisture/instability to influence thunder potential, with two exceptions: 1. A perturbation now located over parts of OH/IN, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England through 00Z. Associated strong large-scale scent/cooling aloft today will help to offset cool near-surface temperatures across parts of southern New England, generating weak surface-based buoyancy anyway, with MLCAPE up to about 100 J/kg. This will support a fast-moving band of low-topped convection extending above the -20 deg C isotherm at times, with isolated embedded thunder. Downdrafts in a few embedded cells may produce strong gusts via downward momentum transfer. However, given the weak instability, organized severe potential appears too low and conditional to justify a categorical area at this time. 2. A southern-stream shortwave trough and vorticity banner are apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the northwestern Gulf. This positively tilted feature will move rapidly eastward today, crossing central FL around 00Z and south FL shortly thereafter. Associated large-scale lift, atop a residual low-level frontal zone (surface boundary over the Straits/Bahamas), will overlap enough moisture to support sporadic lightning with cells embedded in a precip plume. MUCAPE of 300-500 J/kg is possible, with the Mexican EML previously over the region having advected away. Still, midlevel lapse rates will be weak, with low CAPE density. Enough deep shear may remain to support some convective organization, but lack of greater instability and lift will keep severe potential meager at most. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A strong mid/upper-level low will meander across the James Bay region through the period, with an extensive fetch of cyclonic flow covering most of the CONUS. Most of the associated/embedded shortwave troughs will remain too removed from suitable low-level moisture/instability to influence thunder potential, with two exceptions: 1. A perturbation now located over parts of OH/IN, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England through 00Z. Associated strong large-scale scent/cooling aloft today will help to offset cool near-surface temperatures across parts of southern New England, generating weak surface-based buoyancy anyway, with MLCAPE up to about 100 J/kg. This will support a fast-moving band of low-topped convection extending above the -20 deg C isotherm at times, with isolated embedded thunder. Downdrafts in a few embedded cells may produce strong gusts via downward momentum transfer. However, given the weak instability, organized severe potential appears too low and conditional to justify a categorical area at this time. 2. A southern-stream shortwave trough and vorticity banner are apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the northwestern Gulf. This positively tilted feature will move rapidly eastward today, crossing central FL around 00Z and south FL shortly thereafter. Associated large-scale lift, atop a residual low-level frontal zone (surface boundary over the Straits/Bahamas), will overlap enough moisture to support sporadic lightning with cells embedded in a precip plume. MUCAPE of 300-500 J/kg is possible, with the Mexican EML previously over the region having advected away. Still, midlevel lapse rates will be weak, with low CAPE density. Enough deep shear may remain to support some convective organization, but lack of greater instability and lift will keep severe potential meager at most. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/14/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within this larger-scale trough will eject east/southeast from the central/southern High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, a coastal low near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning will lift northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes through the period. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern U.S., extending across southern FL by the end of the period. A moist airmass will be in place across FL ahead of the front. While this will contribute to some weak instability, lapse rates will remain poor. Furthermore, any stronger large-scale ascent will be displaced north of better boundary-layer moisture. While effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt typically would support organized thunderstorms, displaced large-scale ascent with a poorly timed frontal intrusion into the FL Peninsula will preclude severe potential. Elsewhere, a cold and stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm potential across much of the rest of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within this larger-scale trough will eject east/southeast from the central/southern High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, a coastal low near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning will lift northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes through the period. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern U.S., extending across southern FL by the end of the period. A moist airmass will be in place across FL ahead of the front. While this will contribute to some weak instability, lapse rates will remain poor. Furthermore, any stronger large-scale ascent will be displaced north of better boundary-layer moisture. While effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt typically would support organized thunderstorms, displaced large-scale ascent with a poorly timed frontal intrusion into the FL Peninsula will preclude severe potential. Elsewhere, a cold and stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm potential across much of the rest of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within this larger-scale trough will eject east/southeast from the central/southern High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, a coastal low near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning will lift northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes through the period. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern U.S., extending across southern FL by the end of the period. A moist airmass will be in place across FL ahead of the front. While this will contribute to some weak instability, lapse rates will remain poor. Furthermore, any stronger large-scale ascent will be displaced north of better boundary-layer moisture. While effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt typically would support organized thunderstorms, displaced large-scale ascent with a poorly timed frontal intrusion into the FL Peninsula will preclude severe potential. Elsewhere, a cold and stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm potential across much of the rest of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within this larger-scale trough will eject east/southeast from the central/southern High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, a coastal low near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning will lift northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes through the period. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern U.S., extending across southern FL by the end of the period. A moist airmass will be in place across FL ahead of the front. While this will contribute to some weak instability, lapse rates will remain poor. Furthermore, any stronger large-scale ascent will be displaced north of better boundary-layer moisture. While effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt typically would support organized thunderstorms, displaced large-scale ascent with a poorly timed frontal intrusion into the FL Peninsula will preclude severe potential. Elsewhere, a cold and stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm potential across much of the rest of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An arctic airmass on Monday will preclude thunderstorm activity for most of the country. The exception will be across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the 60s ahead of a southward-sagging cold front will be in place over central/southern FL. Warm midlevel temperatures through much of the daytime hours will limit thunderstorm activity via poor lapse rates and capping. However, warm advection ahead of the front will continue through the nighttime hours, while a surface low begins to deepen off the northeast FL, GA and SC coasts late in the period. Modest midlevel cooling also will occur overnight, and at least minor ascent associated with a weak shortwave impulse may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms during the evening and nighttime hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An arctic airmass on Monday will preclude thunderstorm activity for most of the country. The exception will be across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the 60s ahead of a southward-sagging cold front will be in place over central/southern FL. Warm midlevel temperatures through much of the daytime hours will limit thunderstorm activity via poor lapse rates and capping. However, warm advection ahead of the front will continue through the nighttime hours, while a surface low begins to deepen off the northeast FL, GA and SC coasts late in the period. Modest midlevel cooling also will occur overnight, and at least minor ascent associated with a weak shortwave impulse may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms during the evening and nighttime hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An arctic airmass on Monday will preclude thunderstorm activity for most of the country. The exception will be across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the 60s ahead of a southward-sagging cold front will be in place over central/southern FL. Warm midlevel temperatures through much of the daytime hours will limit thunderstorm activity via poor lapse rates and capping. However, warm advection ahead of the front will continue through the nighttime hours, while a surface low begins to deepen off the northeast FL, GA and SC coasts late in the period. Modest midlevel cooling also will occur overnight, and at least minor ascent associated with a weak shortwave impulse may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms during the evening and nighttime hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An arctic airmass on Monday will preclude thunderstorm activity for most of the country. The exception will be across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the 60s ahead of a southward-sagging cold front will be in place over central/southern FL. Warm midlevel temperatures through much of the daytime hours will limit thunderstorm activity via poor lapse rates and capping. However, warm advection ahead of the front will continue through the nighttime hours, while a surface low begins to deepen off the northeast FL, GA and SC coasts late in the period. Modest midlevel cooling also will occur overnight, and at least minor ascent associated with a weak shortwave impulse may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms during the evening and nighttime hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more